عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Business

Saudi Arabia Revises Q1 Economic Growth Estimate Up to 3.4%

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)
TT
TT

Saudi Arabia Revises Q1 Economic Growth Estimate Up to 3.4%

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (AFP)

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics has revised its annual economic growth figures for the Kingdom for the first quarter of 2025 to 3.4%, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.7% released in May, underscoring the resilience of non-oil sectors in driving economic momentum.

Seasonally adjusted data showed real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.1% in the first quarter compared to the final three months of 2024, according to the updated figures.

The figures showed non-oil activities as the true driver behind Saudi Arabia’s economic expansion.

Non-oil sectors surged 4.9% year-on-year, up from 4.2% in the May preliminary reading, and grew 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall real GDP growth.

This robust growth reflects the impact of massive government investments in infrastructure projects and development initiatives, alongside efforts to boost the private sector.

In contrast, oil sector activities saw a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the Kingdom’s voluntary production cuts.

Despite this contraction, the negative impact on overall growth remained limited to just 0.1 percentage points, underscoring the economy’s ability to offset oil sector weakness through other areas.

Government activities also recorded solid growth, rising 3.2% year-on-year and 5.5% compared to the previous quarter.

Most non-oil economic activities recorded robust positive growth rates in the first quarter of 2025.

Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels posted the highest growth at 8.4% year-on-year, reflecting a booming tourism and entertainment sector alongside rising private consumer spending.

Transport, storage, and communications grew by 6.0% year-on-year, highlighting advancements in the Kingdom’s logistics and digital infrastructure.

Financial services, insurance, and business services expanded 5.5% year-on-year, indicating maturation of the financial and service sectors.

The data underscore the pivotal role of government investments and consumer spending in sustaining this growth. Gross fixed capital formation rose 8.5% annually, signaling continued funding for major projects and urban development.

Meanwhile, government final consumption expenditure increased by 5.2%, with private final consumption up 4.5% year-on-year.

Non-oil exports, including re-exports, surged 13.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while oil exports declined 8.4% over the same period, according to official figures released in May.

These revised estimates come amid efforts by the General Authority for Statistics to align closely with international standards and enhance data quality.

The authority undertook a comprehensive update of GDP estimates, applying the global moving-average methodology and collecting detailed 2023 data through expanded statistical surveys, ensuring accuracy and reliability.

This strong non-oil-driven growth highlights Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience and adaptability in a changing global landscape, reinforcing its steady path toward the ambitious goals of Vision 2030.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth at 3.0% for 2025, a downward revision from its January estimate of 3.3%. The IMF also cut its 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7%.

Jihad Azour, IMF Director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told Asharq Al-Awsat last month that Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience enables it to weather fluctuations in global oil prices.

He noted the Kingdom’s substantial financial reserves provide a strong buffer against external shocks. These reserves, combined with ongoing structural reforms under Vision 2030, have significantly strengthened Saudi Arabia’s capacity to adapt.

Azour added that reforms have not only bolstered economic resilience but also effectively diversified income sources and increased the contribution of non-oil sectors to GDP.

This shift toward developing promising sectors reduces reliance on oil revenues and fosters sustainable new economic opportunities.

Most Viewed

 
 
Business

UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
TT
TT

UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."

Business

Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
TT
TT

Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.

Business

Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
TT
TT

Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.