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Oil Prices Fall After Iran Attack as Market Draws Down Risk Premium 

A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Fall After Iran Attack as Market Draws Down Risk Premium 

A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)

Oil prices fell at Asia's open on Monday, as market participants dialed back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.

Brent futures for June delivery fell 24 cents to $90.21 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 38 cents at $85.28 a barrel by 1256 GMT.

The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades. It had raised concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.

But the attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defense system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas fighters in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.

While Israeli officials said the country's war cabinet was in favor of retaliation, the US said it would not take part in any offensive against Iran. Global powers, other Arab nations and the UN secretary general have issued calls for restraint.

"The Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attack on Israel yesterday morning appears sufficient in size to revenge the killing of Iranian military personnel in Syria without being damaging enough to trigger a further escalation in hostilities at this point," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note.

Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of a retaliatory attack by Iran, touching their highest levels since October.

But prices still ended the week down about 1% after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year.

Despite the limited damage sustained by Israel, analysts were widely expecting at least a short-lived rally in prices this morning.

The attack marks an "unprecedented and dangerous development in an already volatile region," said Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon.

Analysts said more significant and longer-lasting price effects from the escalation would require a material disruption to supply, such as constraints on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz near Iran.

So far, the Israel-Hamas conflict has had little tangible impact on oil supply.

A "less certain path to Fed rate cuts" because of persistent US inflation also weighed on prices, Sycamore said. "However, in the medium term, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe means that all the risks remain to the topside in crude oil towards $90."

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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.

Business

Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
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Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)

Copper dropped on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly drop in London since March, as a rout in technology stocks battered markets.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.3% at $13,663 a metric ton by 0700 GMT. That placed it on track to fall 3.44% in the week, Reuters said.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.08% to 106,830 yuan ($16,018.17) a ton.

The weakness reflects worries over AI investment, ‌with copper increasingly ‌influenced by "sentiment towards data center expansion," said ‌Craig ⁠Lang, principal analyst ⁠at CRU.

Technology shares were battered after Democratic wins in the US midterms fueled concerns that new regulatory oversight could cap the AI buildout.

On the other hand, supply constraints cushioned copper's decline.

"I would be cautious about calling this a sustained correction, given ongoing mine supply challenges and exceptionally tight ⁠metal availability outside the US," Lang said.

Copper stocks ‌in SHFE-monitored warehouses <CU-STX-SGH> fell by ‌over 24% this week to just 33,848 tons — the lowest ‌in almost three years. The closely watched Yangshan copper ‌premium <SMM-CUYP-CN>, a gauge of appetite for imports into key consumer China, increased to $210 a ton on Thursday, matching its record high.

Smelters in the country are facing a double squeeze of negative treatment ‌charges and lower sulfuric acid prices.

Meanwhile, warehouse inventories outside the US have been drawn ⁠down as ⁠material was pulled into the country ahead of a potential tariff on imports of refined copper.

"These physical constraints should provide some support against weaker investor sentiment," Lang said.

Among LME metals, aluminium lost 0.54%, zinc lost 1.42%, lead lost 0.45%, nickel dipped 0.23% and tin gained 0.83%.

On the SHFE, aluminium nudged down only 0.04%, zinc lost 1.35%, lead was little changed, down only 0.03%, nickel rose 2.14% and tin dropped 3.45%.

SHFE inventories were down across the board this week, led by sharp drops in aluminium <AL-STX-SGH> and lead <PB-STX-SGH>.

Business

Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
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Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)

Emerging ‌and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much new renewable energy capacity as advanced economies for the first time over the next five years, driven by the current energy crisis, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

Gas and oil prices have soared this year as the US-Iran war disrupts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas trade.

Global renewable energy ‌capacity is forecast ‌to increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts ‌between ⁠2026 and 2031, ⁠the IEA said in its annual outlook.

Emerging and developing economies are expected to add about 1,100 GW, roughly the same as advanced economies, with China adding around 2,550 GW, the agency said.

Capacity growth in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East is ⁠expected to triple over the period, ‌led mainly by solar installations, ‌the IEA said.

China will remain the biggest contributor to ‌global renewable energy growth, although its share is ‌forecast to fall to 53% by 2031 from 60% in 2025.

India is emerging as the world's second-fastest deployer of renewables and is expected to more than double its contribution ‌to global growth by 2031 to nearly 8.5%.

Grid connection delays remain ⁠a major ⁠challenge, with projects awaiting connections worldwide rising 60% over the past year, equivalent to four times the wind and solar capacity connected to grids during the same period.

Grid constraints are expected to slow growth in advanced economies, with annual additions in Europe through 2031 forecast to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels.

Renewable energy is expected to meet 6% of global transport energy demand by 2031, while higher fuel-blending mandates prompted the IEA to raise its biofuels forecast by 40% from last year's report.