IMF Revises Down Middle East Growth Outlook

An International Monetary Fund police officer walks by an IMF banner, during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
An International Monetary Fund police officer walks by an IMF banner, during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
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IMF Revises Down Middle East Growth Outlook

An International Monetary Fund police officer walks by an IMF banner, during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
An International Monetary Fund police officer walks by an IMF banner, during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday Middle East economies would grow at a slower pace this year than it previously projected as the war in Gaza, attacks on Red Sea shipping and lower oil output add to existing challenges of high debt and borrowing costs.

The IMF revised down its 2024 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to 2.7% from 3.4% in its October regional outlook. That would be an improvement from 1.9% growth in 2023.

The downward revision was driven by conflicts in Sudan, the West Bank and Gaza, as well as oil production cuts.

"Assuming these factors ease in 2025, growth is forecast to strengthen to 4.2%," the IMF said.

"Uncertainty is high and medium-term growth is forecast to remain below pre-pandemic historical averages."

Within MENA, oil exporters are seen faring better, with the IMF projecting 2.9% growth this year, up 1 percentage point from last year.

Gulf economies are seen growing 2.4% this year, a downward revision of 1.3 percentage points from October, the IMF said. Non-hydrocarbon growth in the oil-rich region will be the main driver of growth going forward and ambitious plans to diversify their economies are expected to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons, the IMF said.

Non-Gulf oil exporters are seen growing 3.3% in 2024, up from 3% seen in October.

Prolonged disruptions to trade in the Red Sea would further impact trade volumes and shipping costs.

"The conflict in Gaza and Israel is a key downside risk for the MENA region, particularly the risk of further escalation or a protracted conflict and disruptions to trade and shipping," the IMF said.



Trump to Impose Sharp Tariff on Countries Buying Venezuelan Oil

 President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, Monday, March 24, 2025. (AP)
President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, Monday, March 24, 2025. (AP)
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Trump to Impose Sharp Tariff on Countries Buying Venezuelan Oil

 President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, Monday, March 24, 2025. (AP)
President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, Monday, March 24, 2025. (AP)

US President Donald Trump announced Monday steep tariffs on imports from countries buying Venezuelan oil and gas, a punitive measure that could hit China and India, among others, and sow fresh global trade uncertainty.

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has unleashed tariffs on US allies and foes alike, attempting to strong-arm both economic and diplomatic policy.

The latest across-the-board 25 percent levies targeting direct and indirect buyers of Venezuelan oil can take effect as soon as April 2, according to an order signed Monday by Trump.

The US secretary of state, in consultation with other government agencies, is authorized to determine if the new levy will be imposed.

These could hit China and India, with experts noting that Venezuela exports oil to both those countries, and to the United States and Spain.

Trump told reporters Monday that the 25 percent tariff would be on top of existing rates.

Caracas called the measure a "new aggression" by Washington.

"They can sanction and impose tariffs on whatever they want, what they cannot sanction is the love and patriotism of the Venezuelan people," President Nicolas Maduro said during an event broadcast on radio and television.

In February, Venezuela exported about 500,000 barrels of oil per day to China and 240,000 barrels to the United States, experts told AFP.

- 'Liberation day' -

Trump has dubbed April 2 "Liberation Day" for the world's biggest economy, already promising reciprocal tariffs tailored to each trading partner in an effort to remedy practices that Washington deems unfair.

He earlier signaled sector-specific duties coming around the same day -- but the White House said Monday it might take a narrower approach.

In his Monday announcement on Truth Social involving Venezuela, the president cited "numerous reasons" for what he called a "secondary tariff."

He accused Venezuela of "purposefully and deceitfully" sending "undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals" to the United States.

He added in his post that "Venezuela has been very hostile to the United States and the Freedoms which we espouse."

According to Trump's order, the 25 percent tariff expires a year after the last date that a country has imported Venezuelan oil -- or sooner if Washington decides so.

Trump's announcement comes as the deportation pipeline between the United States and Venezuela was suspended last month when he claimed Caracas had not lived up to a deal to quickly receive deported migrants.

Venezuela subsequently said it would no longer accept the flights.

But Caracas said Saturday it had reached agreement with Washington to resume repatriations after which nearly 200 Venezuelan citizens were deported from the United States via Honduras.

Separately Monday, the Trump administration extended US oil giant Chevron's deadline to halt its operations in Venezuela through May 27.

The company had been operating in Venezuela under a sanctions waiver.

- Tariff 'breaks'? -

Trump's latest move adds to tariffs he has vowed would start on or around April 2.

Besides reciprocal tariffs, he has promised sweeping sector-specific duties hitting imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

As things stand, however, his plans for the day might become more targeted.

Sector-specific tariffs "may or may not happen April 2," a White House official told AFP, adding that the situation is "still fluid."

The official reaffirmed that reciprocal tariffs would take place.

But Trump told reporters Monday he might "give a lot of countries breaks" eventually, without elaborating.

He separately added that he would announce car tariffs "very shortly" and those on pharmaceuticals later down the line.

US partners are furthering talks with Washington as deadlines loom, with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic heading to the country Tuesday to meet his counterparts -- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and trade envoy Jamieson Greer.

Hopes of a narrower tariff rollout gave financial markets a boost.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo last week that Washington would go to trading partners with an indication of where tariff levels and non-tariff barriers are.

If countries stopped their practices, Bessent added, they could potentially avoid levies.

In the same interview, Bessent noted that levies would be focused on about 15 percent of countries who have trade imbalances with the United States, dubbing these a "dirty 15."