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Oil Prices Fall on Fear of High US Interest Rates Depressing Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
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Oil Prices Fall on Fear of High US Interest Rates Depressing Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant

Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Tuesday, with investors anticipating higher-for-longer US inflation and interest rates will depress consumer and industrial demand.

Brent crude futures declined 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $83.34 a barrel by 0041 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $79.72 a barrel.

Both benchmarks fell less than 1% on Monday as US Federal Reserve officials said they were awaiting more signs of slowing inflation before considering interest rate cuts, Reuters reported.

"Fears of weaker demand led to selling as the prospect of Fed rate cut became more distant," said analyst Toshitaka Tazawa at Fujitomi Securities.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday it was too early to tell if the inflation slowdown is "long lasting," while Vice Chair Michael Barr said restrictive policy needs more time. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said it will "take a while" for the central bank to be confident that price growth slowdown is sustainable.

Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, freeing up funds which could boost economic growth and demand for oil.

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Federal Reserve Cuts Key Interest Rate by a Quarter-point

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
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Federal Reserve Cuts Key Interest Rate by a Quarter-point

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 7, 2024. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Thursday by a quarter-point in response to the steady decline in the once-high inflation that had angered Americans and helped drive Donald Trump’s presidential election victory this week.
The rate cut follows a larger half-point reduction in September, and it reflects the Fed’s renewed focus on supporting the job market as well as fighting inflation, which now barely exceeds the central bank’s 2% target, The Associated Press reported.
Asked at a news conference how Trump's election might affect the Fed's policymaking, Chair Jerome Powell said that "in the near term, the election will have no effects on our (interest rate) decisions.”
But Trump’s election, beyond its economic consequences, has raised the specter of meddling by the White House in the Fed’s policy decisions. Trump has argued that as president, he should have a voice in the central bank’s interest rate decisions. The Fed has long guarded its role as an independent agency able to make difficult decisions about borrowing rates, free from political interference. Yet in his previous term in the White House, Trump publicly attacked Powell after the Fed raised rates to fight inflation, and he may do so again.
Asked whether he would resign if Trump asked him to, Powell, who will have a year left in his second four-year term as Fed chair when Trump takes office, replied simply, “No.”
And Powell said that in his view, Trump could not fire or demote him: It would “not be permitted under the law,” he said.
Thursday’s Fed rate cut reduced its benchmark rate to about 4.6%, down from a four-decade high of 5.3%. The Fed had kept its rate that high for more than a year to fight the worst inflation streak in four decades. Annual inflation has since fallen from a 9.1% peak in mid-2022 to a 3 1/2-year low of 2.4% in September.
When its latest policy meeting ended Thursday, the Fed issued a statement noting that the "unemployment rate has moved up but remains low,” and while inflation has fallen closer to the 2% target level, it “remains somewhat elevated.”
After their rate cut in September — their first such move in more than four years — the policymakers had projected that they would make further quarter-point cuts in November and December and four more next year. But with the economy now mostly solid and Wall Street anticipating faster growth, larger budget deficits and higher inflation under a Trump presidency, further rate cuts may have become less likely. Rate cuts by the Fed typically lead over time to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Powell declined to be pinned down Thursday on whether the Fed would proceed with an additional quarter-point rate cut in December or the four rate cuts its policymakers penciled in for 2025.