IMF Upgrades China’s 2024, 2025 GDP Growth Forecasts After ‘Strong’ Q1 

Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)
Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)
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IMF Upgrades China’s 2024, 2025 GDP Growth Forecasts After ‘Strong’ Q1 

Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)
Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)

China's economy is set to grow 5% this year, after a "strong" first quarter, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, upgrading its earlier forecast of 4.6% expansion though it expects slower growth in the years ahead.

The IMF said it had revised up both its 2024 and 2025 GDP targets by 0.4 percentage points but warned that growth in China would slow to 3.3% by 2029 due to an ageing population and slower expansion in productivity.

The global lender now expects the world's second-largest economy to grow 5% in 2024 and to slow to 4.5% in 2025.

"The upgrade that we have for this year mainly reflects the fact that first quarter GDP growth came in stronger than expected, and there were some additional policy measures that were recently announced," IMF's First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in Beijing.

China's economy grew at a faster than expected 5.3% pace year-on-year in the first quarter, but deflationary pressures continue to loom large and a protracted property crisis remains a major drag on growth.

"Inflation is expected to rise, but stay low, as output remains below potential. Core inflation is projected to increase only gradually to average around 1% in 2024," Gopinath said at a press conference to mark the release of the fund's annual review of China's economic policies.

A string of recent economic indicators for April including factory output, trade and consumer prices suggest the $18.6 trillion economy has successfully navigated some near-term downside risks, but China observers say the jury is still out on whether the bounce is sustainable.

Retail sales in April, for instance, grew at their slowest pace since December 2022, when Beijing's strict zero-COVID curbs were in place, while new home prices fell at their fastest rate in nine years.

"Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including from a greater or longer-than-expected property sector readjustment," Gopinath said. "The ongoing housing correction, which is necessary for steering the sector to a more sustainable path must continue."



Swedish Ambassador: Swedish Companies Planning on Setting up Regional Headquarters in Saudi Arabia

Swedish Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Petra Menander during a tour of a Swedish company in Saudi Arabia. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Swedish Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Petra Menander during a tour of a Swedish company in Saudi Arabia. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Swedish Ambassador: Swedish Companies Planning on Setting up Regional Headquarters in Saudi Arabia

Swedish Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Petra Menander during a tour of a Swedish company in Saudi Arabia. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Swedish Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Petra Menander during a tour of a Swedish company in Saudi Arabia. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Sweden are witnessing rapid development with the expansion of cooperation in the fields of innovation, logistics and services and others.

Swedish Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Petra Menander told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Saudi-Swedish joint committee is currently working on further deepening relations.

“In November last year, we agreed on 45 activities across four sectors to improve our cooperation, half of which have been implemented,” she added.

“Sweden and Saudi Arabia are natural partners in the global transition toward a more sustainable, knowledge-based economy,” she remarked.

“The presence of approximately 60 Swedish companies in the Kingdom, many of which are expanding their operations, demonstrates strong confidence in the Saudi market and its long-term potential,” she stressed.

“Saudi Arabia is Sweden’s largest trading partner in the Middle East and North Africa. While trade volumes vary year to year, the overall trajectory is one of steady growth. Our bilateral trade grew almost 5 % last year and has increased by more than 90% since 2018,” the ambassador went on to say.

Moreover, Menander added: “As the European Union, we are Saudi Arabia's most important partner for investments and trade and that is a relationship that can grow deeper. Sweden is one of the strongest supporters of free trade within the European Union and we believe that there is a great potential to further increase trade between our countries.”

“Half of the Swedish companies have or are planning to set up regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, many of them are engaged in local manufacturing in the Kingdom and they invest in research and in training the thousands of young Saudi talents they employ,” she said.

She added that Sweden has a strong desire to expand in green energy and smart climate solutions. Swedish companies, such as Hitachi Energy, ABB and Systemair, are contributing to energy efficiency, electrification, and renewable infrastructure.

In the fields of logistics and infrastructure, she noted that “Swedish engineering and design firms are contributing to the planning and execution of major infrastructure projects and have a strong track record in delivering leading solutions for major projects, including within road, rail and air transport with companies such as Sweco, Volvo Trucks and Scania.”

Healthcare and life sciences are among the foundations of cooperation. “Swedish firms such as Diaverum, Getinge, and AstraZeneca are delivering high-quality care and conducting clinical research in the Kingdom,” said Menander.

Furthermore, she revealed that Swedish companies, such as Epiroc and Quant, are helping to modernize and decarbonize the mining sector through advanced technologies.

Sweden is also a global leader in digital maturity and connectivity. Companies like Ericsson are not only advancing 5G and 6G technologies but also investing in local R&D partnerships, added the ambassador.

In terms of smart industry and automation, she said: “With companies like Tetra Pak, Roxtec and SKF, Sweden supports the development of sustainable and efficient industrial ecosystems.”

These areas reflect Sweden’s strengths in innovation, equality, and long-term thinking essential for building resilient and future-ready economies, added the ambassador.

Furthermore, Menander described ties between Saudi Arabia and Sweden as excellent. “They are grounded in mutual respect, shared ambitions, and a commitment to long-term partnership. Our kingdoms are united by a forward-looking vision - one that embraces creativity, working together towards sustainability and growth,” she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“In foreign policy our positions align om many key areas, as was seen during political consultations in Stockholm between Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Eng. Waleed bin Abdulkarim El-Khereiji and State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Dag Hartelius.”

She also noted the “close cooperation between Saudi and Swedish business sectors, where there are great opportunities to enhance the partnership between our two countries.”

“I attended the executive meeting of the Saudi-Swedish Joint Business Council in Stockholm in May, where leading private companies from our two kingdoms discussed new economic initiatives,” she said.

“There about 60 Swedish companies with a presence in Saudi Arabia feel at home and are committed to strengthening their ties with the Kingdom. According to a Business Climate Survey which was conducted among Swedish companies and just published, 91% view the business climate as good or very good and 74% plan to increase their investments.”

“We also see an exciting dialogue in new areas, for instance through Swedish participation in the recent Arab European Cities Dialogue, where participants from Sweden saw many similarities when two regions came together to discuss governance, urban planning, and digitalization for a better future,” stressed Menander.

“We see that the numbers of visitors in both directions between our countries are going up, and we see new partnerships budding almost every day. We see more Saudi film and music appearing in Sweden and we increasingly see Swedish fashion, music and gaming in Saudi Arabia,” she remarked. “In fact, I often meet young Saudis who know about Sweden because they work for Swedish companies like Ikea and H&M.”

“Finally, we see a great interest in deeper cooperation in the field of innovation. Sweden ranks among the most innovative countries in the world and Saudi Arabia makes impressive investments into building an innovative ecosystem with close links between research and entrepreneurship,” she noted.

“We are happy to see that the cooperation is flourishing, including through institutional cooperation and by visits of start-ups both from Saudi Arabia to Sweden and from Sweden to Saudi Arabia,” continued Menander.

“Our cooperation spans a wide range of sectors where Swedish expertise and values align closely with the ambitions of Vision 2030. During our recent national day celebration, some of our companies displayed examples of how they contribute to these goals,” she said.

“These investments are aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, focusing on sectors such as green transition, healthcare, logistics and smart manufacturing and in many cases also include investments into research and development in Saudi Arabia,” the ambassador stated. “In parallel, we see a growing interest in collaboration between Swedish and Saudi incubators, particularly to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).”

“In May, Business Sweden, the Swedish Trade and Invest Council in Riyadh, organized two trade delegations to Saudi Arabia. The first focused on infrastructure projects and included Swedish companies specializing in digital solutions, construction equipment, energy, waste management, and air and water treatment solutions. These companies explored how Swedish expertise could contribute to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 by engaging with several giga projects,” Menander explained.