Türkiye Inflation Hits 75% in Expected Peak Before Relief

A view of produce for sale at a store in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 29, 2023. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A view of produce for sale at a store in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 29, 2023. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Türkiye Inflation Hits 75% in Expected Peak Before Relief

A view of produce for sale at a store in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 29, 2023. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A view of produce for sale at a store in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 29, 2023. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Turkish annual consumer price inflation reached 75.45% in May, a bit above expectations, official data showed on Monday, in what is expected to be the high watermark before a series of rate hikes and relative lira stability bring relief.

The consumer price index rise was driven by strong advances in education, housing and restaurant prices last month, Turkish Statistical Institute data showed.

Monthly inflation is also expected to ease after May, when it was 3.37%, compared with 3.18% in April, the data showed. Annual inflation in April was 69.80%, Reuters reported.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said "the worst is over" and relief will begin this month. "The transition period in the fight against inflation is completed, we are entering the disinflation process," he said on X.

In a Reuters poll, annual inflation had been forecast to peak at 74.8% in May, its highest level since November 2022, before dropping to 42.6% by the end of 2024. Forecasts for month-on-month price rises ranged between 2.7% and 3.3%.

The central bank has raised its policy rate (TRINT=ECI), opens new tab by 4,150 basis points since June last year and vowed to tighten more if there is "a significant and persistent deterioration" in the outlook.

It last raised rates in March, by 500 basis points to 50%, citing a worsening inflation outlook, and has since held steady.

The tightening marked a dramatic reversal of years of monetary stimulus that was championed by President Tayyip Erdogan to boost growth, but which sent inflation soaring and sparked a years-long cost-of-living crisis for Turks.

As a result the lira , steady on Monday, has skidded to 32.25 to the dollar from 5.7 five years ago. It is down more than 8% this year but held mostly steady since March, helping underpin the expected inflation relief.

"We're confident that inflation has now reached a peak but, with today's release containing a few unpleasant surprises, the pace of disinflation in the second half of the year is looking a bit more uncertain," Capital Economics said in a nod to the higher-than-expected print.

The domestic producer price index was up 1.96% month-on-month in May for an annual rise of 57.68%, the data showed.

The policy reversal has drawn foreign investor interest and helped boost the central bank's foreign reserves, which are at the highest level since December on a net basis.

International investors are ramping up exposure to Turkish local bonds and credit default swaps. JPMorgan said it had moved its allocation to Turkish domestic government bonds to "overweight", citing increasing confidence in the policy.

Last month, the central bank nudged up its year-end inflation forecast to 38% and said it would "do whatever it takes" to avoid any longer-term deterioration in the outlook.



COP29 President to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Aim for Fair Climate Ambitions, Value Saudi Efforts

Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
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COP29 President to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Aim for Fair Climate Ambitions, Value Saudi Efforts

Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)

The appointed president of the UN Conference on Climate Change (COP29), Mukhtar Babayev, emphasized that the conference has a clear vision to advance ambition and empower action toward achieving the 1.5°C target.

“We aim for fair climate ambitions and sustainable financing,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat, pointing to Saudi Arabia’s efforts in addressing critical climate issues.

Azerbaijan will host COP29 starting Monday, with the conference running through November 22, to address the rising threats of climate change. The top priority will be reaching an agreement on a new climate finance target.

On the eve of the meeting, Babayev told Asharq Al-Awsat that the vision involves “enhancing ambition” by having parties submit Nationally Determined Contributions, National Adaptation Plans, and biennial transparency reports as signals of commitment and guidance on mutual support.

Babayev, who also serves as Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, added that empowering action requires increased climate financing from multiple sources to turn ambitions into concrete actions. Key goals include establishing a fair, ambitious climate finance target, finalizing Article 6 implementation, reforming multilateral development banks to address climate efforts more effectively, and mobilizing the private sector to play a key role, he underlined.

Article 6 is a core component of the Paris Agreement, focusing on the development of carbon markets, where countries, companies, and individuals can trade carbon credits.

Babayev also noted that COP29 has launched its action program, with initiatives to advance various issues beyond the formal negotiations.

“Much of our strategy builds on past progress and prior commitments, from the Paris Agreement to the global stocktake,” he said. “By working closely with parties, including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the Middle East and North Africa, we hope to make real strides this year.”

Geopolitical tensions

Babayev acknowledged that geopolitical tensions present ongoing challenges to global climate action.

However, he said COP29 provides an opportunity to unite countries around a shared goal: addressing climate change.

“As COP29 president, our strategy centers on diplomacy, inclusivity, and practical solutions to ensure that political issues do not hinder progress,” he explained. Climate change affects all countries, creating common ground for cooperation.

Vulnerable nations

Babayev highlighted the COP29 presidency’s commitment to prioritizing the needs of small island developing states and the least developed countries, as they are disproportionately affected by climate change despite contributing the least to global emissions.

“In COP29 presidency consultations, we presented a vision based on two parallel pillars: enhancing ambition and empowering action, with climate finance as a top priority. Reaching an agreement on a fair, ambitious new climate finance target, or the new collective quantified goal, is essential for addressing the severe climate impacts facing frontline communities, including small island developing states and the least developed countries,” he said.

Collective quantified goal

Babayev underscored the new collective quantified goal as a key priority at COP-29, saying: “The top negotiation priority for the COP29 presidency is reaching agreement on a fair and ambitious new climate finance target.”

He continued: “We know the needs are in the trillions, but perspectives differ on how to achieve this. Realistically, public sector contributions and mobilization appear to be in the hundreds of billions. The new target should also include detailed qualitative elements, and we’ve seen progress in terms of access, robust transparency arrangements, structure, and a ten-year framework.”

Upholding commitments

Ensuring that past commitments are honored is a top priority for the COP29 presidency, according to Babayev.

“Transparency is essential to mutual trust within the UNFCCC process, and the COP29 presidency has emphasized enhancing transparency, with biennial transparency reports crucial for tracking progress on commitments and assessing financial gaps and needs,” he explained.

Azerbaijan will lead by example by submitting its own biennial transparency reports ahead of COP29, and Babayev encouraged other parties to do the same. “We are creating a platform for parties to demonstrate their commitment to transparency and publish their biennial transparency reports on time,” he added.

Loss and damage fund and additional pledges

Recognizing COP29’s role in securing additional pledges and enhancing funds to better support vulnerable communities, Babayev stated: “The COP29 presidency is committed to addressing these concerns directly. We recently made substantial progress in Baku and are proud of the role we have played so far.”

He explained: “At the third meeting of the Loss and Damage Fund Board, held in Baku, we took significant steps to establish the financial groundwork for disbursements starting in 2025. Hundreds of millions already pledged will provide practical support to the most vulnerable communities, and we will use COP29 as a platform to call for additional contributions to further strengthen the fund.”

Babayev also acknowledged the contributions of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East and North Africa region, noting that Saudi Arabia has played a vital role through its leadership of the Arab negotiating group, representing the region’s views and priorities on the global stage.

“We appreciate the efforts of our partners in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East and North Africa in addressing the critical climate issues affecting us all,” he said.

Reflecting on his meeting with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in Jeddah earlier this year, Babayev noted: “We discussed opportunities for collaboration on climate action and how we can work together most effectively to achieve the goals and principles of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.”

He welcomed Saudi Arabia’s initiatives to address climate change, including renewable energy use, emissions management, and carbon reduction and removal efforts such as the Saudi Green Initiative and the Middle East Green Initiative, along with circular carbon economy practices, technologies, and other national and regional programs.