Credit ratings agency S&P Global affirmed Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating at “A+/A-1,” with a “stable outlook” on Friday.
The agency said that the Kingdom was well-positioned to withstand the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
S&P stated in a press release that “the outlook reflects the Kingdom’s ability to redirect oil exports to the Red Sea port via the East-West oil pipeline, utilize its large oil storage capacity, and its ability to increase oil production post-conflict.”
It noted that “the outlook also reflects our view that non-oil growth momentum and associated non-oil revenues, as well as the government’s ability to calibrate investment expenditure tied to Vision 2030, should support the economy and fiscal trajectory.”
S&P forecast real GDP growth of 4.4% for 2026, saying real GDP growth will average 3.3% per year for 2027-2028.
It said the government diversifying away from oil, economic volatility is starting to decrease--albeit sensitivity to oil remains. “The non-oil sector (including government activities) now accounts for about 70% of GDP, up from 65% in 2018. This structural shift is a key objective of Vision 2030,” the agency noted.
It added that “Saudi Arabia’s substantial asset position should remain a key strength over our forecast period even as gross debt rises.”
The ratings agency noted that before the conflict, the government in Riyadh had already been looking at adjusting spending on diversification projects tied to Vision 2030 to manage plans more in line with available resources.
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, the Kingdom's “long-term transformation” plan, has a fiscal policy that is expansive to encourage economic diversification. This has been done despite oil price volatility which has put pressure on public finances.
The agency said: “We expect the authorities will continue to adopt a prudent and flexible approach in this regard, having stressed a commitment to achieving Vision 2030 goals without jeopardizing public finances.”
The US and Israeli war on Iran is causing the Strait of Hormuz to be close to shutting down, forcing regional producers to reduce oil output.