Euro Rises after France's First-round Vote; Yen Fragile

The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
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Euro Rises after France's First-round Vote; Yen Fragile

The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters

The euro rose on Monday after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position, though by a smaller margin than projected, while the yen struggled to break away from a near 38-year low.
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's parliamentary elections on Sunday, exit polls showed, although analysts noted the party won a smaller share of the vote than some polls had initially projected.
The euro, which has fallen some 0.8% since President Emmanuel Macron called the election on June 9, was last 0.4% higher at $1.0756, after having touched two-week top earlier in the session.
"They (RN) have actually performed a little bit worse than what was expected," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"As a result of that, we saw the euro rise modestly in early Asian trade just because we might actually get less fears of more expansionary and unsustainable fiscal policy if the far-right party did a little bit worse."
The rise in the euro sent the dollar a touch lower against a basket of currencies, though the greenback was also reeling from data on Friday that showed US inflation cooled in May, cementing expectations the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later this year.
Market pricing now points to about a 63% chance of a Fed cut in September, as compared to a 55% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Against the dollar, sterling rose 0.11% to $1.2659, while the Aussie dipped 0.07% to $0.66655.
The New Zealand dollar edged 0.12% higher to $0.6098. The dollar index was last 0.11% lower at 105.61, having earlier hit a one-week trough.
"Should inflation continue to behave itself, and incoming data fall in line with the FOMC's forecasts, through the summer, the first 25bp cut remains on the cards as soon as September," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

The yen struggled to gain ground against a broadly weaker dollar and was last 0.1% lower at 161.03 per dollar, standing just a whisker away from a 37-1/2-year low of 161.27 hit on Friday.
The Japanese currency had reversed early gains in the session following revised data that showed its economy shrank more than initially reported in the first quarter.
Separate data on Monday also showed the business mood in Japan's service-sector soured in June as the lower yen pushed costs higher, offsetting a big lift in factory confidence and pointing to consumption weakness.
The yen has already fallen more than 12% this year as it continues to be weighed down by stark interest rate differentials between the US and Japan, with its latest decline to the weaker side of 160 per dollar keeping investors on heightened alert for any intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the currency.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese yuan - also a victim of stark interest rate differentials with the US - fell a marginal 0.04% to 7.3204 per dollar in the offshore market.
The onshore yuan last stood at 7.2679 per dollar.
The Chinese currency drew some support from a private sector survey which showed factory activity among smaller Chinese manufacturers
grew at the fastest pace since 2021 thanks to overseas orders.
That came after official data over the weekend revealed China's manufacturing activity fell for a second month in June while services activity slipped to a five-month low.
"The PMIs for June were mixed but on balance suggest that the recovery lost some momentum last month," said economists at Capital Economics.
"We think economic activity will continue to hold up relatively well in the coming months. While the latest property stimulus has done little to boost new home sales, fiscal stimulus and strong exports should continue to support growth, at least in the near term."



UAE, Serbia Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. WAM
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. WAM
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UAE, Serbia Sign Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. WAM
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. WAM

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić have witnessed the exchange of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), paving the way for increased trade and investment flows and bilateral private sector collaboration.

Sheikh Mohamed commended the exchange of the CEPA as a key milestone in the relations between the UAE and Serbia.

“The CEPA exchange with Serbia is a notable step forward in our efforts to create a network of trade agreements that will accelerate investment, promote knowledge-sharing, and create opportunities for joint ventures in high-growth sectors,” he said.

“Serbia represents an important addition to the CEPA program and a bridge into the high-potential region of Eastern Europe. The UAE-Serbia CEPA reflects our shared ambition to establish a new era of collaboration between our nations and unlock long-term, sustainable growth for both our economies.”

The Serbian President expressed confidence that the agreement would pave the way for new opportunities in economic cooperation and diversification, fostering sustainable growth and prosperity for both nations.

Once implemented, the UAE-Serbia CEPA is expected to remove or reduce duties on product lines, lift unnecessary barriers to trade, protect intellectual property rights, support small and medium-sized companies, and facilitate mutual investment flows.

The UAE is the third-largest market for Serbian exports in the Middle East, and increased FDI has been directed toward high-priority sectors, including renewable energy, agriculture, food security, infrastructure, and logistics.