Euro Rises after France's First-round Vote; Yen Fragile

The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
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Euro Rises after France's First-round Vote; Yen Fragile

The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters

The euro rose on Monday after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position, though by a smaller margin than projected, while the yen struggled to break away from a near 38-year low.
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's parliamentary elections on Sunday, exit polls showed, although analysts noted the party won a smaller share of the vote than some polls had initially projected.
The euro, which has fallen some 0.8% since President Emmanuel Macron called the election on June 9, was last 0.4% higher at $1.0756, after having touched two-week top earlier in the session.
"They (RN) have actually performed a little bit worse than what was expected," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"As a result of that, we saw the euro rise modestly in early Asian trade just because we might actually get less fears of more expansionary and unsustainable fiscal policy if the far-right party did a little bit worse."
The rise in the euro sent the dollar a touch lower against a basket of currencies, though the greenback was also reeling from data on Friday that showed US inflation cooled in May, cementing expectations the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later this year.
Market pricing now points to about a 63% chance of a Fed cut in September, as compared to a 55% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Against the dollar, sterling rose 0.11% to $1.2659, while the Aussie dipped 0.07% to $0.66655.
The New Zealand dollar edged 0.12% higher to $0.6098. The dollar index was last 0.11% lower at 105.61, having earlier hit a one-week trough.
"Should inflation continue to behave itself, and incoming data fall in line with the FOMC's forecasts, through the summer, the first 25bp cut remains on the cards as soon as September," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

The yen struggled to gain ground against a broadly weaker dollar and was last 0.1% lower at 161.03 per dollar, standing just a whisker away from a 37-1/2-year low of 161.27 hit on Friday.
The Japanese currency had reversed early gains in the session following revised data that showed its economy shrank more than initially reported in the first quarter.
Separate data on Monday also showed the business mood in Japan's service-sector soured in June as the lower yen pushed costs higher, offsetting a big lift in factory confidence and pointing to consumption weakness.
The yen has already fallen more than 12% this year as it continues to be weighed down by stark interest rate differentials between the US and Japan, with its latest decline to the weaker side of 160 per dollar keeping investors on heightened alert for any intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the currency.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese yuan - also a victim of stark interest rate differentials with the US - fell a marginal 0.04% to 7.3204 per dollar in the offshore market.
The onshore yuan last stood at 7.2679 per dollar.
The Chinese currency drew some support from a private sector survey which showed factory activity among smaller Chinese manufacturers
grew at the fastest pace since 2021 thanks to overseas orders.
That came after official data over the weekend revealed China's manufacturing activity fell for a second month in June while services activity slipped to a five-month low.
"The PMIs for June were mixed but on balance suggest that the recovery lost some momentum last month," said economists at Capital Economics.
"We think economic activity will continue to hold up relatively well in the coming months. While the latest property stimulus has done little to boost new home sales, fiscal stimulus and strong exports should continue to support growth, at least in the near term."



COP29 President to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Aim for Fair Climate Ambitions, Value Saudi Efforts

Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
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COP29 President to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Aim for Fair Climate Ambitions, Value Saudi Efforts

Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)

The appointed president of the UN Conference on Climate Change (COP29), Mukhtar Babayev, emphasized that the conference has a clear vision to advance ambition and empower action toward achieving the 1.5°C target.

“We aim for fair climate ambitions and sustainable financing,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat, pointing to Saudi Arabia’s efforts in addressing critical climate issues.

Azerbaijan will host COP29 starting Monday, with the conference running through November 22, to address the rising threats of climate change. The top priority will be reaching an agreement on a new climate finance target.

On the eve of the meeting, Babayev told Asharq Al-Awsat that the vision involves “enhancing ambition” by having parties submit Nationally Determined Contributions, National Adaptation Plans, and biennial transparency reports as signals of commitment and guidance on mutual support.

Babayev, who also serves as Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, added that empowering action requires increased climate financing from multiple sources to turn ambitions into concrete actions. Key goals include establishing a fair, ambitious climate finance target, finalizing Article 6 implementation, reforming multilateral development banks to address climate efforts more effectively, and mobilizing the private sector to play a key role, he underlined.

Article 6 is a core component of the Paris Agreement, focusing on the development of carbon markets, where countries, companies, and individuals can trade carbon credits.

Babayev also noted that COP29 has launched its action program, with initiatives to advance various issues beyond the formal negotiations.

“Much of our strategy builds on past progress and prior commitments, from the Paris Agreement to the global stocktake,” he said. “By working closely with parties, including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the Middle East and North Africa, we hope to make real strides this year.”

Geopolitical tensions

Babayev acknowledged that geopolitical tensions present ongoing challenges to global climate action.

However, he said COP29 provides an opportunity to unite countries around a shared goal: addressing climate change.

“As COP29 president, our strategy centers on diplomacy, inclusivity, and practical solutions to ensure that political issues do not hinder progress,” he explained. Climate change affects all countries, creating common ground for cooperation.

Vulnerable nations

Babayev highlighted the COP29 presidency’s commitment to prioritizing the needs of small island developing states and the least developed countries, as they are disproportionately affected by climate change despite contributing the least to global emissions.

“In COP29 presidency consultations, we presented a vision based on two parallel pillars: enhancing ambition and empowering action, with climate finance as a top priority. Reaching an agreement on a fair, ambitious new climate finance target, or the new collective quantified goal, is essential for addressing the severe climate impacts facing frontline communities, including small island developing states and the least developed countries,” he said.

Collective quantified goal

Babayev underscored the new collective quantified goal as a key priority at COP-29, saying: “The top negotiation priority for the COP29 presidency is reaching agreement on a fair and ambitious new climate finance target.”

He continued: “We know the needs are in the trillions, but perspectives differ on how to achieve this. Realistically, public sector contributions and mobilization appear to be in the hundreds of billions. The new target should also include detailed qualitative elements, and we’ve seen progress in terms of access, robust transparency arrangements, structure, and a ten-year framework.”

Upholding commitments

Ensuring that past commitments are honored is a top priority for the COP29 presidency, according to Babayev.

“Transparency is essential to mutual trust within the UNFCCC process, and the COP29 presidency has emphasized enhancing transparency, with biennial transparency reports crucial for tracking progress on commitments and assessing financial gaps and needs,” he explained.

Azerbaijan will lead by example by submitting its own biennial transparency reports ahead of COP29, and Babayev encouraged other parties to do the same. “We are creating a platform for parties to demonstrate their commitment to transparency and publish their biennial transparency reports on time,” he added.

Loss and damage fund and additional pledges

Recognizing COP29’s role in securing additional pledges and enhancing funds to better support vulnerable communities, Babayev stated: “The COP29 presidency is committed to addressing these concerns directly. We recently made substantial progress in Baku and are proud of the role we have played so far.”

He explained: “At the third meeting of the Loss and Damage Fund Board, held in Baku, we took significant steps to establish the financial groundwork for disbursements starting in 2025. Hundreds of millions already pledged will provide practical support to the most vulnerable communities, and we will use COP29 as a platform to call for additional contributions to further strengthen the fund.”

Babayev also acknowledged the contributions of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East and North Africa region, noting that Saudi Arabia has played a vital role through its leadership of the Arab negotiating group, representing the region’s views and priorities on the global stage.

“We appreciate the efforts of our partners in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East and North Africa in addressing the critical climate issues affecting us all,” he said.

Reflecting on his meeting with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in Jeddah earlier this year, Babayev noted: “We discussed opportunities for collaboration on climate action and how we can work together most effectively to achieve the goals and principles of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.”

He welcomed Saudi Arabia’s initiatives to address climate change, including renewable energy use, emissions management, and carbon reduction and removal efforts such as the Saudi Green Initiative and the Middle East Green Initiative, along with circular carbon economy practices, technologies, and other national and regional programs.