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How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
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How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)

Financial analysts and market experts predict a downturn for Gulf stock markets this summer. They foresee lower stock values, reduced trading volumes, sectoral stagnation, delayed investment decisions, and a focus on holding strong positions in high-performing large-cap stocks.

This trend is driven by the majority of traders taking their annual vacations during this period. Typically, sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality see seasonal growth in summer.

From the start of 2024 to mid-year, Gulf markets have shown mixed results. Muscat Securities Market rose by 3.8%, Bahrain Bourse by 3.5%, and Kuwait Stock Exchange by 1.33%. However, Qatar Stock Exchange dropped by 8.02%, Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange by 5.4%, Saudi Arabia’s main index by 1.99%, and Dubai Financial Market slightly by 0.7%.

Tareq Al-Ateeq, a financial analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that investor behavior across Gulf markets tends to align during summer due to holiday seasons and high temperatures, leading to lower liquidity and fluctuating market indices.

Investors are delaying decisions until summer ends, focusing on robust positions in large-cap and defensive stocks, which is expected to dampen market liquidity and activity in July and August 2024.

Certain sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality are anticipated to see increased trading during the summer. Some investors aim to capitalize on market downturns by adjusting their sector allocations.

In 2023, markets like Dubai saw a 6% monthly increase, with Saudi Arabia's market index rising by 4%. Oman also experienced a 3.1% increase, while Qatar and Bahrain markets declined by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively.

Key sectors such as consumer goods, utilities, tourism, hospitality, and energy are showing increased trading activity and interest during the summer season.

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Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
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Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters

Although Turkish inflation slowed in September, it is still raging out of control with the government avoiding difficult decisions that could help tackle it, experts told AFP.

Türkiye has experienced spiraling inflation the past two years, peaking at an annual rate of 85.5 percent in October 2022 and 75.45 percent in May.

The government claims it slowed to 49.4 percent in September.

But the figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists who estimate that year-on-year inflation stood at 88.6 percent in September.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has said Ankara was hoping to bring inflation down to 17.6 percent by the end of 2025 and to “single digits” by 2026.

And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently hailed Türkiye’s success in “starting the process of permanent disinflation.”

“The hard times are behind us,” he said.

But economists interviewed by AFP said the surge in consumer prices in Türkiye had become “chronic” and is being exacerbated by some government policies.

“The current drop is simply due to a base effect. The price rises over the course of a month is still high, at 2.97 percent across Türkiye and 3.9 percent in Istanbul.

“You can’t call this a success story,” said Mehmet Sisman, economics professor at Istanbul’s Marmara University.

Spurning conventional economic practice of raising interest rates to curb inflation, Erdogan has long defended a policy of lowering rates. That has sent the lira sliding, further fueling inflation.

But after his reelection in May 2023, he gave Türkiye’s Central Bank free rein to raise its main interest rate from 8.5 to 50 percent between June 2023 and March 2024.

The central bank’s rate remained unchanged in September for the sixth consecutive month.

“The fight against inflation revolves around the priorities of the financial sector. As a result, it is done indirectly and generates uncertainty,” explained Erinc Yeldan, economics professor at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

But raising interest rates alone is not enough to steady inflation without addressing massive budget deficits, according to Yakup Kucukkale, an economics professor at Karadeniz Technical University.

He pointed to Türkiye’s record budget deficit of 129.6 billion lira (3.45 billion euros).

“Simsek says this is due to expenditure linked to the reconstruction in regions hit by the February 2023 earthquake,” he said of the disaster that killed more than 53,000 people.

“But the real black hole is due to the costly public-private partnership contracts,” he said, referring to infrastructure contracts which critics say are often awarded to firms close to Erdogan’s government.

Such contracts cover construction and management of everything from motorways and bridges to hospitals and airports, and are often accompanied by generous guarantees such as state compensation in the event they are underused.

“We should question these contracts, which are a burden on the budget because this compensation is indexed to the dollar or the euro,” said Kucukkale.

Anti-inflation measures also tend to impact low-income households at a time when the minimum wage hasn’t been raised since January, he said.

“But these people already have little purchasing power. To lower demand, such measures must target higher-income groups, but there is hardly anything affecting them,” he said.