Egypt's Non-oil Sector Edges Closer to Growth in June

A general view shows Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt July 13, 2020. (Reuters)
A general view shows Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt July 13, 2020. (Reuters)
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Egypt's Non-oil Sector Edges Closer to Growth in June

A general view shows Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt July 13, 2020. (Reuters)
A general view shows Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt July 13, 2020. (Reuters)

Egypt's non-oil private sector showed more signs of improvement in June, a survey showed on Thursday.

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index for Egypt climbed to 49.9 in June from 49.6 in May. While remaining below the 50.0 threshold separating growth from contraction, it showed the North African nation was nearing recovery after being in contraction territory for 43 consecutive months, Reuters reported.

"Egyptian non-oil companies saw an increase in sales volumes in June for the first time since August 2021," S&P Global said.

The survey was published a day after a reshuffled cabinet was sworn in, tasked with bringing inflation under control and boosting investment.

The new orders sub-index registered 50.2 points - the highest since August 2021. The manufacturing and services sectors showed the most promising signs, which companies said was linked to a recovery in market conditions. Construction activity contracted, however.

Employment remained broadly stable in June, as some companies reported they were hiring more to meet the rising demand, while others did not replace retired workers or laid off staff.

S&P economist David Owen said businesses appear to be "heading on the road to recovery".

"If we see further rises in sales and purchases in the second half of this year, firms should have the motivation and need to expand their output," Owen said.

An uneasy calm hung over the Kenyan capital on Thursday.

"While June saw the fastest rise in input prices for three months, firms generally commented that this was due to a high degree of volatility in market prices rather than an accelerating inflation trend," S&P Global said.



US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up in the latest week, but appeared to be steadying near a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market that should set the stage for the Federal Reserve to kick off interest rate cuts next month.
A slowdown in overall US business activity this month as firms faced diminished ability to push through price increases added to the evidence that the economy is slowing and inflation is downshifting to a degree that should allow Fed officials to focus more attention on the job market, Reuters reported.

With a rate cut now broadly expected next month, interest rates on home loans have already begun dropping, and that helped fuel a larger-than-expected rebound in existing home sales last month.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended Aug. 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

The latest data should continue to allay fears that the labor market is rapidly deteriorating, first raised after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth in July, which also saw the unemployment rate rise to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%.
Indeed, the latest claims data covers the survey week for this month's employment report from the Labor Department, and the leveling off in new filings points to "a small decline in the unemployment rate in August," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said in a client note.

"Claims are leveling off on a trend basis, consistent with our view that, while the labor market is softening, it isn't weak enough to warrant anything more than a 25 (basis point) rate cut at the Fed's September meeting," she said.
Fed officials have said they are keenly watching the labor market, aware that waiting too long to cut interest rates could cause serious harm.
Layoffs remain historically low, however, with much of the slowdown in the labor market coming from firms scaling back hiring, trailing an immigration-induced surge in labor supply.

The Fed's 525 basis points worth of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 are curbing demand.
The US central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range for more than a year. With a first rate cut now widely expected at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, the market focus is on how large a reduction it will be - a quarter or a half percentage point.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.863 million during the week ending Aug. 10, the claims report showed.