Oil Prices Rise on Fears of Wider Middle East Conflict

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Rise on Fears of Wider Middle East Conflict

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices rose on Monday, paring last week's loss, on fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East following a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel and the United States blamed on Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

Brent crude futures gained 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.33 a barrel at 0010 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $77.25 a barrel.

Last week, Brent lost 1.8% while WTI fell 3.7% on sagging Chinese demand and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire agreement.

On Sunday, Israel's security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to decide on the "manner and timing" of a response to the Saturday's rocket strike in the Golan Heights that killed 12 teenagers and children.

Iran-backed Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack.

"Worries over escalating tensions in the Middle East prompted fresh buying, but gains were limited by lingering concerns of weakening demand in China," Reuters quoted Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities as saying.

Over the past few weeks, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

But Israel wants changes in a plan for a Gaza truce and the release of hostages by Hamas, complicating a deal to halt nine months of combat that have devastated the enclave, according to a Western official, a Palestinian and two Egyptian sources.

On the demand side, data released earlier this month showing that China's total fuel oil imports dropped 11% in the first half of 2024 have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China, the world's biggest crude importer.

Meanwhile, US energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row, boosting the monthly count by the most since November 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.



Dollar Hobbled by Economic Worries; Euro Remains in Favor

US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
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Dollar Hobbled by Economic Worries; Euro Remains in Favor

US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters

The dollar hovered near a five-month low against major peers on Monday, bruised by President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and soft economic data, at a time when other currencies, including the euro, benefit from domestic drivers.

The euro was last at $1.0905, up 0.2% on the day, and heading back towards the $1.0947 it hit last week, its highest since October 11.

The Japanese yen was also marginally stronger on the day at 148.48 per dollar, again after hitting its strongest in five months last week at 146.5 to the dollar.

That left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against its six major counterparts, at 103.5, just off its five-month trough of 103.21 reached last Tuesday, Reuters reported.

Currency markets have undergone a shift in recent months, as traders re-evaluate their initial expectations that Trump's economic policies would both support the dollar and cause other currencies to weaken.

In fact the reverse has happened, and analysts at Societe Generale said on Monday that they had changed their currency forecasts "to reflect Germany's planned fiscal changes, the US economy's self-inflicted (relative) fragility, and Japan’s escape from deflation".

They see the euro at $1.13 by year-end and the yen at 139 per dollar.