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OPEC+ Sticks to Oil Policy

The online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) held on Thursday. Photo: OPEC on X
The online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) held on Thursday. Photo: OPEC on X
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OPEC+ Sticks to Oil Policy

The online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) held on Thursday. Photo: OPEC on X
The online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) held on Thursday. Photo: OPEC on X

A meeting of top OPEC+ ministers has kept oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start unwinding one layer of output cuts from October, and repeated that the hike could be paused or reversed if needed.
Several ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+ as the group is known, held an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on Thursday.
OPEC+ is currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7% of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since 2022 to bolster the market amid uncertainty over global demand and rising supply outside the group.
In a statement after Thursday's meeting, OPEC+ said the members making the most recent layer of cuts - a 2.2 million bpd voluntary cut until September - reiterated that its gradual phase-out could be paused or reversed, depending on market conditions.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday the current level of oil prices was comfortable for Russia, its budget, and other participants in the market. Supply and demand remained in balance, he added.
Algeria's Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab said uncertainties affecting oil markets were unlikely to continue for much longer, as long as the market remains adequately supplied.
Oil demand, he added, was expected to follow a sustained upward trend in the coming weeks.
OPEC+ agreed at its last meeting in June to phase out the 2.2 million bpd cut over the course of a year from October 2024 until September 2025. It also agreed then to extend earlier cuts of 3.66 million bpd until end-2025.
Soon after that, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ could pause or reverse the production hikes if it decided the market is not strong enough.

Thursday's meeting also noted assurances from Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia made during the meeting to achieve full conformity with pledged output cuts, the statement said. Those countries had earlier delivered plans to compensate for past overproduction.
An OPEC+ source said the chair of the meeting was insisting that members show commitment to the compensation plan.

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Dollar Recovers as Trump Proposes Canada, Mexico Tariffs

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Recovers as Trump Proposes Canada, Mexico Tariffs

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The US dollar rose on Tuesday, recovering from its biggest daily percentage drop in 14 months after President Donald Trump suggested the US could impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1, countering expectations he might take a gradual approach.

Trump told reporters he was thinking about implementing tariffs of around 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico at the start of February over illegal immigrants and fentanyl crossing into the country. He also raised the possibility of a universal tariff but said the US was "not ready" for that yet.

The dollar fell sharply on Monday after Trump's first day in office passed with no specific plans on tariffs and officials said any new taxes would be imposed in a measured way, a major relief for trade-exposed currencies, Reuters reported.

"What you're seeing here, too, is just how crowded long dollar positioning is, so all you need is some ambiguity on the tariff front, and you get these kind of moves," said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk management, at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto.

"The bigger outside moves are going to come now if we see some deals happening, some stuff being negotiated and some of this fear getting priced out. The dollar positioning is long enough that you're going to see some smart people trying to bet on a turn."

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.32% to 108.33 after dropping 1.24% on Monday. It was up as much as 0.68% earlier in the session.

The euro was down 0.22% at $1.0391. The EU is also seen as a likely target for Trump's tariff policies. Sterling weakened 0.26% to $1.2291.

Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump said he would remedy the trade imbalance either through tariffs or by Europe buying more US oil and gas.

A subsequent trade memo directed agencies to investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits. Analysts at Jefferies said the memo should be seen as a "blueprint for what to expect next on tariffs," and April 1 will be an important date as the agency reports are due by that date.

The Canadian dollar weakened 0.8% versus the greenback to C$1.44 per dollar while the Mexican peso was down 0.86% versus the dollar at 20.698.

The inauguration speech focused on emergencies in immigration and energy and a more expansionist foreign policy, including a pledge to take back the Panama Canal.

In his first term in office, Trump had a history of announcing imminent plans for policy proposals, including on healthcare and infrastructure, only for nothing to take shape.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.11% to 155.42.

The yen has strengthened against the dollar in three of the last four sessions, supported by growing expectations the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates on Friday.

Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Tuesday at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event that a weak yen would increase inflation by boosting import costs. Mimura said the government and the central bank were communicating closely every day through various channels.

Markets are pricing an 86.2% chance of a quarter-point increase.

The dollar strengthened 0.23% against the offshore Chinese yuan to 7.278. Trump has threatened China with tariffs of up to 60% but did not detail any plans on Monday.

Beijing later set a stronger fix for the yuan, suggesting it was still inclined to take steps to prop up the currency.