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Gold Firms as US Rate-cut Optimism, Geopolitical Risks Lend Support

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights
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Gold Firms as US Rate-cut Optimism, Geopolitical Risks Lend Support

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO Purchase Licensing Rights

Gold prices drifted higher on Wednesday driven by safe-haven demand and rising bets that the US Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates as early as September.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,402.43 per ounce, as of 1242 GMT, having settled lower in the previous four sessions. US gold futures gained 0.5% to $2,442.70.

Gold is seeing some "stabilization as some interest develops in the physical gold markets in the far East; geopolitical tensions are still supportive," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell, Reuters reported.

"It's possible that some distressed sellers from the weekend/Monday will be looking to re-establish their positions as gold has done its usual job by providing liquidity ahead of potential margin calls."

Prices fell as much as 3% on Monday, caught in a global sell-off driven by fears of a US recession.

Bullion is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.

Traders have altered their rate cut expectations following the soft jobs report last week, with nearly 105 basis points of cuts anticipated by year-end and a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The outlook for looser monetary policy provides a supportive element for gold as a non-yield-bearing asset, and this factor has combined with strong central bank buying to deliver a positive performance for the yellow metal in 2024 so far, Kinesis Money said in a note.

Meanwhile, China's central bank held back on buying gold for its reserves for a third straight month in July, official data showed.

Spot silver edged 0.1% lower to $27.02 per ounce.

The expected economic slowdown will dent industrial demand and that is likely to cap the upside for silver, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

Platinum rose 1.8% to $928.25 and palladium was up 2.5% to $896.65.

 

 

 

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Will Tariffs Accelerate Free Trade Deals?

Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)
Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)
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Will Tariffs Accelerate Free Trade Deals?

Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)
Container cargo ships docked at Bangkok port (Reuters)

More than 70 countries are waiting for their turn to sit at the negotiating table with US officials, as they scramble to avoid a wave of new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration under a policy the White House has described as a “global trade rebalancing.”

As diplomatic and trade delegations rush to arrange urgent meetings in Washington, key questions are emerging over what options these nations have in order to avert a trade escalation — and whether they can secure exemptions from the new duties.

As some countries consider leveraging trade pressure or economic alliances in response, analysts warn that what the US administration calls a “preventive trade war” could trigger sweeping changes in the structure of global commerce.

In the Gulf region, however, analysts believe the impact of Washington’s decisions remains limited. They say Gulf states have enough flexibility to reposition themselves and mitigate the fallout from the new US measures.

Saudi economist Dr. Ihsan A. Buhulaiga says it is too early to speak of a final framework for global trade flows, arguing that Trump’s tariff decisions appear more like negotiating tactics than irreversible policy shifts.

“These moves seem more like bargaining positions than fixed policies,” A. Buhulaiga told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Many countries and blocs, including the European Union, are watching closely before reacting in ways that might provoke President Trump — as was the case with China.”

A. Buhulaiga said Trump’s tariff hikes have eroded trust between the United States and its key trading partners — China, Mexico, Canada, and the EU.

“Trump’s approach is focused on generating revenue for the US Treasury from imports, with little regard for the broader consequences,” he said.

“That stance has already triggered sharp volatility — not just in equity markets, but also in bonds, especially US government debt.”

While the impact of US tariffs on Gulf states is expected to be limited, economists say the ongoing trade war is unlikely to accelerate free trade agreements between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and major economic blocs.

“For Gulf countries, including the region’s two largest economies — Saudi Arabia and the UAE — the effect of US tariffs is minimal,” said A. Buhulaiga.

“But pursuing free trade agreements with other blocs now would be risky, especially if that includes China, given the current tensions between Beijing and Washington,” he added.

A. Buhulaiga noted that tariff increases are primarily aimed at China, and pointed out that efforts to strike trade deals between the GCC and other economic alliances have taken decades with little progress.

“There’s no sign on the horizon that any agreements will be signed soon,” he said.

Meanwhile, Saudi global trade expert Dr. Fawaz Alamy explained that when the World Trade Organization (WTO) was founded, member states agreed to divide countries seeking accession into three developmental tiers.

He said advanced economies — including the United States, Canada, the European Union, and Japan — committed to fully adopting WTO rules without exceptions.

Developing nations such as China, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and most Arab and Islamic countries were allowed limited exemptions, while least-developed countries, particularly in Africa, were granted broader leniency.

“To promote globalization, WTO members agreed to open their markets, lock in tariff rates at agreed levels, and avoid technical barriers to imports,” Alamy told Asharq Al-Awsat.