Oil Strengthens as Fall Estimated in US Crude Inventories

An oil rig is seen on Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issac Urrutia/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
An oil rig is seen on Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issac Urrutia/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Oil Strengthens as Fall Estimated in US Crude Inventories

An oil rig is seen on Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issac Urrutia/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
An oil rig is seen on Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issac Urrutia/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday on estimates about shrinking US crude and gasoline inventories as the market watched for a possible widening of the Middle Eastern war, which could curtail global oil supplies.

Brent crude futures rose 30 cents to $80.99 a barrel by 0009 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 38 cents to $78.73 per barrel.

US crude oil and gasoline inventories were expected to have fallen last week, while distillate stocks rose, according to market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

The API figures showed crude stocks shrunk by 5.21 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories eased by 3.69 million barrels, and distillates rose by 612,000 barrels.

Falling inventories could indicate higher demand in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer.

Official government data from the Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.

The market was also awaiting signs of the next moves by Iran, which has vowed a severe response to the killing of a Hamas leader late last month, which Tehran blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. The US Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.

A broadening conflict in the region could affect crude supplies from Iran and neighboring producer countries, analysts said, tightening inventories and supporting prices.

Keeping oil prices from moving even higher, the International Energy Agency (IEA), meanwhile, kept its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged on Tuesday but trimmed its 2025 estimate, citing the impact of a weakened Chinese economy on consumption.



Dollar Hits 2-week Low as Traders Ponder Trump Tariff Plans

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Hits 2-week Low as Traders Ponder Trump Tariff Plans

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar touched a fresh two-week low on Wednesday, as a lack of clarity on President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs kept financial markets guessing and left the greenback struggling to regain ground against major currencies. Trump said late on Tuesday that his administration was discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, the same day that he previously said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25%.

He also vowed duties on European imports, without providing further details.

Despite those threats, a lack of specific plans from Trump's first day in office saw the dollar start the week with a 1.2% slide against a basket of major peers. It stabilized on Tuesday, ending flat after an attempted rebound fizzled, with US officials saying any new taxes would be imposed in a measured way. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six top rivals, touched its lowest since Jan. 6 at 107.75 on Wednesday, paring an earlier rise in the index. It was last down 0.15% at 107.97.

"Tariffs have again grabbed the headlines overnight as Trump commented in the evening that his threat of a new 10% tariff on China was still on the table...," said Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid.

"Trump's comments leave plenty of near-term uncertainty even though the trade investigations from his day 1 executive orders will take some time to play out."

Trump on Monday signed a broad trade memorandum, ordering federal agencies to complete comprehensive reviews of a range of trade issues by April 1. The greenback rose 0.3% to 156 yen, edging up from the one-month low it touched the day before.

INFLATION RISKS The euro fell 0.3% in early trading, before it changed course and rose to $1.0457, its highest since Dec. 30. It was last up 0.07% at $1.0434. Sterling hit a two-week high against the greenback, but was last trading down at $1.2351.

Analysts have said that Trump's policies on immigration, tax and tariffs will likely boost growth but also be inflationary, but the more cautious tariff approach has fuelled some hopes that inflation risks could be more limited, Reuters reported.

Traders expect a quarter-point Fed interest rate cut by July, while another reduction by year-end is considered a coin toss. The Canadian dollar was slightly weaker at 1.4346 per US dollar, following a volatile week that saw it tumble as low as 1.4520 overnight for the first time since March 2020, feeling additional pressure from cooling inflation last month. The Mexican peso gained about 0.3% to 20.547 per dollar. China's yuan held steady at 7.272 per dollar in offshore trading, after pushing to the strongest level since Dec. 11 on Tuesday at 7.2530.

"A 10% tariff on China imports would be far below the 60% rate he mentioned in his campaign," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"On top of this is the general sense that Trump is not pursuing maximalist trade protectionism in his early actions, but appears to be positioning for trade negotiations," Tan said.

"Altogether these suggest that the US dollar could drop further."