Oil Prices Up on Hopes of US Rate Cuts Boosting Fuel Demand

Hawk Dunlap, an oil well control specialist, and Sarah Stogner, an oil and gas lawyer, survey an excavated pumpjack with a leaking surface casing in Ward County, Texas, US, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Adrees Latif
Hawk Dunlap, an oil well control specialist, and Sarah Stogner, an oil and gas lawyer, survey an excavated pumpjack with a leaking surface casing in Ward County, Texas, US, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Adrees Latif
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Oil Prices Up on Hopes of US Rate Cuts Boosting Fuel Demand

Hawk Dunlap, an oil well control specialist, and Sarah Stogner, an oil and gas lawyer, survey an excavated pumpjack with a leaking surface casing in Ward County, Texas, US, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Adrees Latif
Hawk Dunlap, an oil well control specialist, and Sarah Stogner, an oil and gas lawyer, survey an excavated pumpjack with a leaking surface casing in Ward County, Texas, US, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Adrees Latif

Oil prices rose on Thursday, supported by optimism potential US interest rate cuts will boost economic activity and fuel consumption though concerns over slower global demand curbed gains.
Brent crude futures climbed 17 cents, or 0.21%, to $79.93 a barrel by 0348 GMT, recovering some of the previous day's losses. US West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 21 cents, or 0.27%, to $77.19 per barrel.
Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday after US crude inventories rose unexpectedly and on easing worries about a wider Middle East conflict.
US consumer prices rose moderately in July and the annual increase in inflation slowed to below 3% for the first time in nearly 3-1/2 years, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, said Reuters.
"We saw a correction in Asia trade as the oil market was oversold on Wednesday," said Yuki Takashima, economist at Nomura Securities, adding that investors are betting the Fed could start cutting rates next month.
"Still, oil prices are expected to stay under pressure going forward as concerns persist that global demand, especially in China, will be sluggish," Takashima said, predicting WTI will head towards the $72 mark in early August.
Supporting prices further were investor worries over Iran's potential response to the killing of the leader of the Palestinian group Hamas last month. Three senior Iranian officials have said that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination.
"Geopolitical risk continues to hang over the oil market. It is still unclear how and if Iran will retaliate against Israel following the assassination of the political leader of Hamas on Iranian soil," said ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey in a client note.
"This uncertainty has led to increased options trading activity with market participants wanting to protect themselves from significant upside."
Separately, oil inventory gains raised concerns of weaker demand, analysts at ANZ said in a client note. US crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, compared with estimates for a 2.2 million barrel draw, building for the first time since late June.
Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency trimmed its 2025 estimate for oil demand growth, citing the impact of a weakened Chinese economy on consumption. That came after OPEC cut expected demand for 2024 for similar reasons.
China's factory output growth slowed in July while refinery output fell for a fourth month, underscoring the country's spotty economic recovery.



Saudi Arabia, India Seek Comprehensive Economic Integration in the Next Six Months

India’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dr. Suhel Ajaz Khan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
India’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dr. Suhel Ajaz Khan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia, India Seek Comprehensive Economic Integration in the Next Six Months

India’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dr. Suhel Ajaz Khan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
India’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dr. Suhel Ajaz Khan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

India’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dr. Suhel Ajaz Khan expected the launch of new partnerships with the Kingdom in the coming six months to bolster cooperation and economic integration between the countries.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, he said: “The calendar for the next six months is quickly filling up with even more engagements and meetings, reflecting the deepening of this vital relationship. The Riyadh-Delhi corridor is becoming increasingly active, serving as a conduit for enhanced cooperation, economic integration, and cultural exchange.”

The following is the full text of the interview:

Q: What are the most prominent events and traditions associated with the celebrations of India's Independence Day?

A: The most prominent event is the flag hoisting ceremony held at the iconic Red Fort in Delhi. Each year on August 15, the Honorable Prime Minister of India hoists the Indian tricolor, followed by playing of the national anthem. In his address to the nation, the Prime Minister greets the people of India and highlights the plans and priorities of the current Government. The ceremony also includes Guard of Honor by the Army, Navy and the Air Force. The event is telecast on national television and people of all ages watch this special ceremony.

Across the country, schools, government offices, public and private institutions also organize flag hoisting events, that commonly includes cultural programs and exhibitions. The patriotic celebrations showcase our enthusiasm to commemorate India’s extraordinary journey. Such events are also organized all across the world by our embassies.

Q: How does the celebration of this day reflect on relations between India and the Kingdom?

A: As India commemorates its 78th Independence Day this year, and continues its steady progress to achieve the goal of Viksit Bharat (Developed India) by 2047, the role of friendly countries such as Saudi Arabia is pivotal. Our two countries enjoy cordial and friendly relations reflecting the centuries old economic and socio-cultural ties.

Today this wide-ranging relationship straddles across various fields including political exchanges, security, defense production, energy, trade and industry, investments, education and people and people relations. Most significantly there are 2.65 million Indians who are resident in the Kingdom, and the celebrations are an opportunity to reaffirm their connection to India.

Q: What is your assessment of Saudi-Indian relations? Is there an upcoming high-level visit to strengthen bilateral relations, and what are its dates and agenda?

A. Since Independence, India’s bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia have progressively evolved into a multifaceted and mutually beneficial strategic partnership. These relations have been given further impetus with visits of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi to Saudi Arabia in 2016 and 2019 and visits of Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to India in 2019 and 2023. In 2019 we also set up India-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council covering the entire gamut of our bilateral relations.

Crown Prince Mohammed visited India on September 9-11, 2023 to participate in the G20 Leaders’ Summit and to co-chair 1st Leaders’ Meeting of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council along with PM Modi. During the visit, eight MoUs, MoCs, and agreements were signed by the two sides across several fields. The Crown Prince’s visit to India was a landmark visit and it consolidated the strategic partnership between the two brotherly countries.

Regarding your question of high-level visits, in recent years, the relationship between India and Saudi Arabia has grown increasingly dynamic, characterized by a series of high-level visits that underscore the strategic importance of this bilateral partnership. Over the past year, a plethora of such visits have taken place between the two nations, with more than 10 high-level visits from India and 14 high-level visits from Saudi Arabia. These interactions have not only strengthened diplomatic ties but also paved the way for collaborative ventures in various sectors, including energy, technology, and trade.

As we look ahead, the calendar for the next six months is quickly filling up with even more engagements and meetings, reflecting the deepening of this vital relationship. The Riyadh-Delhi corridor is becoming increasingly active, serving as a conduit for enhanced cooperation, economic integration, and cultural exchange. This momentum highlights the commitment of both nations to building a robust partnership that is mutually beneficial and geared towards addressing the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century.

Q: What are the areas of economic cooperation between the two countries? What is the volume of trade exchange and what is its growth rate? What is the volume of joint investments?

A. India-Saudi trade is robust. Not only is the trade volume increasing but it is also diversifying. India is Saudi Arabia’s second largest trading partner; while Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth largest trading partner. The value of bilateral trade was approximately $52.75 billion (2022-2023). In 2023-24, the Indian exports to the Kingdom stood at $11.56 billion.

Energy cooperation forms a central pillar of the Indo-Saudi bilateral ties. Saudi Arabia is a key partner for India for ensuring energy security. Saudi Arabia was India’s third largest source of crude oil in 2022-23. Over the years, India-Saudi Arabia relationship is evolving from a traditional buyer-seller relationship to a strategic partnership in the energy sector based on mutual complementaries and interdependence. Over the last few years, there has also been emphasis on renewable energy.

While energy remains a major pillar of trade, there has been success in diversifying the trade basket. India’s own exports have doubled over the last five years and include food items; textiles; automotive and machinery sector, etc.

The investment relationship between our two countries has been steadily growing. Indian companies have invested over USD2 billion in Saudi Arabia. These are in diverse fields such as management and consultancy; construction projects; telecommunications; information technology; financial services, pharmaceuticals. More and more Indian companies are looking at Saudi Arabia as an investment destination. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has made investments in India to the tune of USD10 billion. This includes Public Investment Fund (PIF) investments; investments from state-owned and private companies.

In an important development, a High-Level Task Force (HLTF) as discussed during our two leaders’ meeting in September, has been constituted at the start of this year. The HLTF is being led at the, on the Indian side, by the Principal Secretary to the PM and on the Saudi side, by Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Energy Minister. The first such meeting of the HLTF took place on July 28. We have identified many unique investment opportunities to be taken up in the HLTF.

Q: Is there a new bilateral cooperation project or one underway, and what is its nature and size?

A. While a lot of bilateral projects are in pipeline, a major project that involves both bilateral and multilateral cooperation, is the IMEEC. During the G20 Summit, our leaders announced the India Middle East Europe Corridor. This will open up opportunities in the field of connectivity, logistics, and transportation. It will be a game-changer connecting three continents and will bring immense benefits to the people of all the countries party to the project. Also, a lot of Indian companies are partnering and executing various projects across the Kingdom, including giga projects being undertaken in the Kingdom.