Gold Climbs as Traders Position for Powell's Speech

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Climbs as Traders Position for Powell's Speech

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold prices gained on Friday as investors positioned themselves for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech that could shed more light on a potential US September interest rate cut.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,500.83 per ounce by 1219 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,531.60 on Tuesday. US gold futures gained 0.8% to $2,536.50.

Bullion fell more than 1% in the previous session, setting it on course for a 0.3% weekly decline, pressured by a rebound in the dollar and higher Treasury yields, Reuters reported.

"I think it's position-taking ahead of the expected rate cut, which I think is now looking like almost a certainty in September," said independent analyst Ross Norman.

Traders are expecting a 74% chance of a 25 basis points cut in September, while 26% expect a deeper 50 bps cut. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment as it yields no interest by itself.

"If Powell now hints at stronger interest rate cuts as a result, we could see new record highs for gold," Commerzbank said in a note.

"Given that the market has already priced in Fed rate cuts of around 100 basis points by the end of the year, the bar for a dovish surprise is likely to be set quite high."

Powell is expected to deliver speech at the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 1400 GMT.

Meanwhile, India's silver imports are on course to nearly double this year due to rising demand from solar panel and electronics makers and as investors bet the metal will give better returns than gold, leading importers said on Friday.

Spot silver rose nearly 1.5% to $29.41 per ounce and was up 1.3% for the week.

Platinum gained 0.3% to $946.35 and palladium steadied at $933.71. Both metals were on track for a weekly decline.



US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up in the latest week, but appeared to be steadying near a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market that should set the stage for the Federal Reserve to kick off interest rate cuts next month.
A slowdown in overall US business activity this month as firms faced diminished ability to push through price increases added to the evidence that the economy is slowing and inflation is downshifting to a degree that should allow Fed officials to focus more attention on the job market, Reuters reported.

With a rate cut now broadly expected next month, interest rates on home loans have already begun dropping, and that helped fuel a larger-than-expected rebound in existing home sales last month.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended Aug. 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

The latest data should continue to allay fears that the labor market is rapidly deteriorating, first raised after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth in July, which also saw the unemployment rate rise to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%.
Indeed, the latest claims data covers the survey week for this month's employment report from the Labor Department, and the leveling off in new filings points to "a small decline in the unemployment rate in August," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said in a client note.

"Claims are leveling off on a trend basis, consistent with our view that, while the labor market is softening, it isn't weak enough to warrant anything more than a 25 (basis point) rate cut at the Fed's September meeting," she said.
Fed officials have said they are keenly watching the labor market, aware that waiting too long to cut interest rates could cause serious harm.
Layoffs remain historically low, however, with much of the slowdown in the labor market coming from firms scaling back hiring, trailing an immigration-induced surge in labor supply.

The Fed's 525 basis points worth of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 are curbing demand.
The US central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range for more than a year. With a first rate cut now widely expected at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, the market focus is on how large a reduction it will be - a quarter or a half percentage point.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.863 million during the week ending Aug. 10, the claims report showed.