Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
TT

Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday on a softer dollar but were still set to end the week lower as weaker US employment data raised concerns over the health of the world's largest oil consumer, and renewed ceasefire talks in Gaza eased worries about supply.

Brent crude futures rose $1.38, or 1.8%, to $78.60 a barrel at 1220 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.46, or 2%, to $74.47. Brent futures have fallen about 1.4% so far this week, while WTI lost nearly 3%.

Both benchmarks hit their lowest since early January this week, after the US government sharply lowered its estimate of jobs added by employers this year through March, Reuters reported.

That sparked concern about a potential recession in the US hurting demand in the top oil consuming nation, but some analysts say that was an overreaction to the jobs revision.

The market will be closely monitoring a keynote speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 1400 GMT on Friday, with the market widely anticipating a rate cut from next month.

"Alluding to a quarter point cut in September is something already priced in and will receive a lukewarm reaction," PVM Oil analyst John Evans said.

"But a double-decker half point percentage cut goes against how the Fed wishes to manage a controlled move away from tightening," he added.

The US dollar index softened to about 101.45 ahead of the speech, and remained close to the 2024 low of 100.92 it hit on Wednesday, and is headed for a fifth straight week of losses. A cheaper greenback typically lifts demand for dollar-denominated oil from investors holding other currencies.

Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday that a drawdown in oil inventories has provided oil prices with some support.

"For now, the balance in the oil market is tight, with inventories drawing approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in the last four weeks, which we expect will continue in the balance of [the third quarter]," the bank said.

Recent data from China, the top oil importer, has pointed to a struggling economy and slowing oil demand from refiners.
A renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also helped ease supply worries and weighed on oil prices.

US and Israeli delegations started a new round of meetings in Cairo on Thursday to resolve differences over a truce proposal.



US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
TT

US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up in the latest week, but appeared to be steadying near a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market that should set the stage for the Federal Reserve to kick off interest rate cuts next month.
A slowdown in overall US business activity this month as firms faced diminished ability to push through price increases added to the evidence that the economy is slowing and inflation is downshifting to a degree that should allow Fed officials to focus more attention on the job market, Reuters reported.

With a rate cut now broadly expected next month, interest rates on home loans have already begun dropping, and that helped fuel a larger-than-expected rebound in existing home sales last month.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended Aug. 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

The latest data should continue to allay fears that the labor market is rapidly deteriorating, first raised after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth in July, which also saw the unemployment rate rise to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%.
Indeed, the latest claims data covers the survey week for this month's employment report from the Labor Department, and the leveling off in new filings points to "a small decline in the unemployment rate in August," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said in a client note.

"Claims are leveling off on a trend basis, consistent with our view that, while the labor market is softening, it isn't weak enough to warrant anything more than a 25 (basis point) rate cut at the Fed's September meeting," she said.
Fed officials have said they are keenly watching the labor market, aware that waiting too long to cut interest rates could cause serious harm.
Layoffs remain historically low, however, with much of the slowdown in the labor market coming from firms scaling back hiring, trailing an immigration-induced surge in labor supply.

The Fed's 525 basis points worth of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 are curbing demand.
The US central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range for more than a year. With a first rate cut now widely expected at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, the market focus is on how large a reduction it will be - a quarter or a half percentage point.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.863 million during the week ending Aug. 10, the claims report showed.