Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
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Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday on a softer dollar but were still set to end the week lower as weaker US employment data raised concerns over the health of the world's largest oil consumer, and renewed ceasefire talks in Gaza eased worries about supply.

Brent crude futures rose $1.38, or 1.8%, to $78.60 a barrel at 1220 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.46, or 2%, to $74.47. Brent futures have fallen about 1.4% so far this week, while WTI lost nearly 3%.

Both benchmarks hit their lowest since early January this week, after the US government sharply lowered its estimate of jobs added by employers this year through March, Reuters reported.

That sparked concern about a potential recession in the US hurting demand in the top oil consuming nation, but some analysts say that was an overreaction to the jobs revision.

The market will be closely monitoring a keynote speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 1400 GMT on Friday, with the market widely anticipating a rate cut from next month.

"Alluding to a quarter point cut in September is something already priced in and will receive a lukewarm reaction," PVM Oil analyst John Evans said.

"But a double-decker half point percentage cut goes against how the Fed wishes to manage a controlled move away from tightening," he added.

The US dollar index softened to about 101.45 ahead of the speech, and remained close to the 2024 low of 100.92 it hit on Wednesday, and is headed for a fifth straight week of losses. A cheaper greenback typically lifts demand for dollar-denominated oil from investors holding other currencies.

Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday that a drawdown in oil inventories has provided oil prices with some support.

"For now, the balance in the oil market is tight, with inventories drawing approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in the last four weeks, which we expect will continue in the balance of [the third quarter]," the bank said.

Recent data from China, the top oil importer, has pointed to a struggling economy and slowing oil demand from refiners.
A renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also helped ease supply worries and weighed on oil prices.

US and Israeli delegations started a new round of meetings in Cairo on Thursday to resolve differences over a truce proposal.



Minister: Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Cost Lebanon $10 Billion

Empty tables stand at an empty restaurant at the Hilton Beirut Metropolitan Palace, with a general view visible in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon, August 19, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
Empty tables stand at an empty restaurant at the Hilton Beirut Metropolitan Palace, with a general view visible in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon, August 19, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
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Minister: Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Cost Lebanon $10 Billion

Empty tables stand at an empty restaurant at the Hilton Beirut Metropolitan Palace, with a general view visible in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon, August 19, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
Empty tables stand at an empty restaurant at the Hilton Beirut Metropolitan Palace, with a general view visible in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon, August 19, 2024. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky

Lebanon’s hopes of boosting its economy with tourism revenue have been thwarted, after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs and threat of all-out war triggered a series of travel bans and sent holidaymakers packing, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

Summer-season income from visitors — mostly from among Lebanon’s large diaspora — had been expected to surpass the $5 billion to $7 billion pumped in last year, according to Minister of Economy and Trade Amin Salam. But, he said in an interview, that all changed after the strike late last month, which has raised fears of a wider conflict on Lebanese soil between Israel and Hezbollah.

The rocket attack in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed Fouad Shukr, a senior commander of Hezbollah, which has been trading fire with Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began in October.

The conflict has already cost Lebanon more than $10 billion, Salam said, basing his estimate on lost revenue and damage to infrastructure.

“We had dreamed” the growth in spending by tourists and returning Lebanese would continue, he said in his Beirut office. But “everyone who had booked canceled, and everyone who was here left. That sector froze. Hotels and stores are empty.”

Governments issued travel warnings around the time of Israel’s strike and airlines suspended flights. Tourist spending in Lebanon was a significant boost to a economy that’s been in meltdown over the past five years because of a banking and debt crisis.

“This money is what kept the country alive,” Salam said.