Libya's Oil Output Falls More Than Half

A general view of Ras Lanuf Oil and Gas Company in Ras Lanuf, Libya, August 28, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Al-Hadad
A general view of Ras Lanuf Oil and Gas Company in Ras Lanuf, Libya, August 28, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Al-Hadad
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Libya's Oil Output Falls More Than Half

A general view of Ras Lanuf Oil and Gas Company in Ras Lanuf, Libya, August 28, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Al-Hadad
A general view of Ras Lanuf Oil and Gas Company in Ras Lanuf, Libya, August 28, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Al-Hadad

More than half of Libya's oil production, or about 700,000 barrels per day, was offline on Thursday and exports were halted at several ports as a standoff between rival political factions over the central bank and oil revenue threatens to end a four-year period of relative peace.

The crisis over control of the Central Bank of Libya threatens a new bout of instability in the country, a major oil producer that is split between eastern and western factions that have drawn backing from Turkey and Russia.

Ports in Libya's hydrocarbon-rich Oil Crescent - Es Sidra, Brega, Zueitina and Ras Lanuf - halted export operations on Thursday, two engineers at the ports told Reuters.

Four vessels had loaded 600,000 barrels of oil each in the eastern region that accounts for the bulk of the country's exports - two at Es Sidra, one at Brega and one at Zueitina - and departed earlier on Thursday, the engineers said.

Output at oilfields controlled by Waha Oil Company, a subsidiary of the National Oil Corporation, has dropped to 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 280,000 bpd and is expected to fall further, engineers told Reuters on Thursday.

Production has also been halted or reduced at the Sharara, Sarir, Abu Attifel, Amal and Nafoora fields, engineers have said.

That has taken roughly 700,000 bpd of oil output offline, according to Reuters calculations. Libya pumped about 1.18 million bpd in July.
Consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group has estimated production losses could reach between 900,000 and 1 million bpd and last for several weeks.

Eastern factions have vowed to keep oil production shut off until the internationally recognized Presidency Council and Government of National Unity in Tripoli, in the west, return veteran central bank governor Sadiq al-Kabir to his post.

The Presidency Council, headed by Mohammed al-Menfi, said on Aug. 18 it was dismissing Kabir, a move rejected by the eastern-based House of Representatives parliament, and eastern commander Khalifa Haftar's force called the Libyan National Army.



Moody's Upgrades Pakistan's Rating to Caa2

People make their way on motorbikes during heavy downpour in Karachi, Pakistan, 28 August 2024. EPA/SHAHZAIB AKBER
People make their way on motorbikes during heavy downpour in Karachi, Pakistan, 28 August 2024. EPA/SHAHZAIB AKBER
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Moody's Upgrades Pakistan's Rating to Caa2

People make their way on motorbikes during heavy downpour in Karachi, Pakistan, 28 August 2024. EPA/SHAHZAIB AKBER
People make their way on motorbikes during heavy downpour in Karachi, Pakistan, 28 August 2024. EPA/SHAHZAIB AKBER

Credit ratings agency Moody's has upgraded Pakistan's local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to 'Caa2' from 'Caa3' citing improving macroeconomic conditions and moderately better government liquidity and external positions, Reuters reported.
The ratings upgrade reflects Pakistan's decreased default risk after a $7 billion IMF bailout staff level agreement in July.
However, despite doubling since June 2023, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves remain insufficient for its external financing needs, according to the agency.
"There is now greater certainty on Pakistan's sources of external financing, following the sovereign's staff-level agreement with the IMF on 12 July 2024 for a 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of $7 billion," Moody's said in a statement.
The IMF stated that the program's approval depends on Pakistan securing necessary financing assurances from its development and bilateral partners. Moody's said it expects the IMF Board to approve the program within a few weeks.
Following the upgrade, Pakistan's international bonds made broad gains. The 2027 maturity was up 0.7 cents to 85.9 cents in the dollar by 1007 GMT - not far off the one month high hit earlier in the day, according to Tradeweb data.
Topline Securities CEO, Mohammed Sohail, said the credit upgrade was anticipated following the IMF agreement, and another upgrade within a year is plausible.
The announcement comes a day after Pakistan's central bank chief told Reuters in an interview that the country would be looking for about $4 billion from Middle Eastern commercial banks.
Sohail said Fitch's upgrade in July and Moody's upgrade should "boost bankers' confidence.”
EXTERNAL FINANCING AND POLITICAL RISKS
Historically, Pakistan has depended on friendly countries to "rollover" debt to avoid a repayment crisis.
Although Moody's previous concerns about a potential balance of payments crisis have eased, it warned that risks remain high as Pakistan continues to rely on timely financing from official partners.
There is also uncertainty over the government's ability to fully implement IMF-mandated reforms, Moody's said.
The coalition government, formed after February elections, may struggle to implement revenue-raising measures without stoking social tensions.
Moody's cautioned that any slippages in reform implementation could lead to delays in or withdrawal of financing support from official partners.