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Libyan Dinar Slips on Black Market amid Central Bank Crisis

People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)
People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)
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Libyan Dinar Slips on Black Market amid Central Bank Crisis

People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)
People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)

Libya's dinar currency is losing value against the US dollar in the country's black market amid a crisis over control of the central bank that has slashed oil output and exports.

Two black market dealers in Tripoli gave prices of 7.95 dinars to the dollar on Monday compared to 7.36 a week earlier, a drop of about 8%. The official exchange rate is 4.7 dinars to the greenback.

The sliding dinar may indicate that the impact of the ongoing dispute over leadership of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) is starting to hit the economy more widely, which may further destabilise the major oil producer, according to Reuters.

The dealers attributed the dinar's decline to a lack of dollars in the market as the crisis has stopped the CBL issuing letters of credit, a key tool of monetary policy and exchange and export transactions in Libya for years.

Its economy also relies heavily on oil revenue, and factions in eastern Libya have blockaded most exports as a tactic in the dispute over the CBL, leading to force majeure being declared on oil fields and cutting off the state's source of income.

The Government of National Unity, based in Tripoli in western Libya, has said it expects the CBL to resume issuing letters of credit this week.

The crisis began when Presidential Council chief Mohammed al-Menfi, based in Tripoli, last month announced he was replacing veteran central bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir, prompting pushback from eastern factions.

Legislative bodies aligned with the two sides are conducting UN-backed consultations aimed at resolving the crisis but have not yet announced significant progress. While the crisis continues, the CBL's access to international dollar markets appears limited.

"The exchange price is volatile because no dollars are entering the country, and oil (exports), the only source of revenue in the country, have also stopped," said a black-market dealer. The dinar could drop further if the crisis drags on, he added.

“There should be a solution very quickly because we, the citizens, are the only victim of the central bank crisis,” said Hisham Mohamed, a 45-year-old father of five in Tripoli.

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Business

Saudi Arabia: Mawani Announces Commencement of Container Terminal Operations at Jubail Port

Jubail Commercial Port. SPA
Jubail Commercial Port. SPA
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Saudi Arabia: Mawani Announces Commencement of Container Terminal Operations at Jubail Port

Jubail Commercial Port. SPA
Jubail Commercial Port. SPA

The Saudi Ports Authority “Mawani” has announced the commencement of container terminal operations at Jubail Commercial Port under a privatization contract with Saudi Global Ports (SGP), backed by private sector investments exceeding SAR2 billion ($533 million).

The new move is in line with the objectives of the National Transport and Logistics Strategy under Saudi Vision 2030, Mawani said in a statement on Wednesday.

“The commencement of operations comes as part of the implementation of the privatization contract signed between the two parties, which includes the development of infrastructure and the modernization of operational equipment,” it said.

“This includes increasing berth length from 1,000 m to 1,400 m, deepening berths from 14 m to 18 m, increasing the number of STS cranes from 6 to 10, and raising the number of RTG cranes from 13 to 29 automated, environmentally friendly cranes,” the statement added.

According to Mawani, the launch will increase the container terminal’s handling capacity from 1.5 million TEUs to 2.4 million TEUs annually, across an area of 460,000 square meters.

This will enable the terminal to accommodate large next-generation vessels, enhance operational efficiency, and reinforce Jubail Commercial Port’s position as a key logistics gateway supporting the Kingdom’s sustainable growth.

It will also strengthen operational integration with the Group’s terminals across the Eastern Coast ports.

Business

Germany Growth Forecasts Slashed as Mideast War Hits Economy

Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File
Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File
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Germany Growth Forecasts Slashed as Mideast War Hits Economy

Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File
Germany's economy is struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals © Ronny HARTMANN / AFP/File

Leading economic institutes more than halved their growth forecast for Germany on Wednesday, warning that the energy shock caused by the Middle East war would hit Europe's top economy hard.

A group of leading institutes slashed their joint GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.6 percent, down from a September prediction of 1.3 percent.

Inflation is now forecast to rise to 2.8 percent, up from 2.0 percent, "weighing on household purchasing power".

"The energy price shock triggered by the Iran war is hitting the recovery hard," said economist Timo Wollmershaeuser of the Ifo institute, adding that increased government spending was nevertheless "preventing a stronger slide", AFP reported.

Oil and natural gas prices have surged since the end of February, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, killed its supreme leader and plunged the Middle East into war.

Iran has since closed the Strait of Hormuz to ships of countries it considers allied with the US and Israel, effectively blocking a sea lane that normally transports about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.

Higher inflation in Germany would hit consumer spending, the institutes said, weighing on an already weak economy that has barely grown since a burst of pent-up demand after the Covid pandemic in 2022.

The government on Wednesday introduced rules allowing petrol stations to only raise prices once a day, at noon.

But motorist Sebastian, a 49-year-old estate agent who did not want to give his surname, told AFP at a Frankfurt petrol station that this was not enough to protect his spending power.

"Whether the price of petrol changes once a day or 10 times a day doesn't really matter," he said, adding it was "certainly not enough" to lower his costs.

Germany's economy, struggling with fierce Chinese competition in sectors from cars to chemicals, was in the doldrums even before US President Donald Trump last year imposed sweeping new tariffs before starting the Mideast war in late February.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who took office last May, vowed to borrow and spend hundreds of billions through a special infrastructure fund over coming years in what was dubbed a spending "bazooka" aimed at getting the economy back on its feet.

But the economists said that much of the money was simply paying for day-to-day spending.

"Government expenditure on consumption is rising much more sharply than investment," economist Oliver Holtemoeller of the Halle Institute for Economic Research said. "That was not the idea behind changing the financing rules."

The outlook for the longer term was also dire.

Citing low productivity, industrial decline and an ageing population, the institutes warned that Germany's economy would soon be unable to grow sustainably.

"We have also reassessed the structural changes in the German economy and, in particular, revised our forecast for industrial growth downwards," Wollmershaeuser said.

In an era when "demographic change is hitting with full force", he said, "potential growth will come to a standstill by the end of the decade, and we will have to get used to average GDP growth rates of zero percent".

Speaking to broadcaster Welt TV, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said the government was working on reducing labour taxes and energy costs but that Germans would have to get used to working more over the course of their lives.

"We need to make this country vigorous again," she said. "Germany needs to get its will to win back."

Business

Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)
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Dollar Falls for Second Day as Middle East Ceasefire Expectations Rise

US dollar bills (Reuters)
US dollar bills (Reuters)

The dollar dropped for a second day on Wednesday as expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict grew after the US signalled that an end to the war could be near, even though markets remained on edge on fears of escalation.

The White House said US President Donald Trump would address the nation "to provide an important update on Iran" at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

Trump said on Tuesday the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Washington could see the "finish line" in the Iran war, according to Reuters.

Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the most popular trades since the war began in late February.

The yen recovered from this year's low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit its highest level in a week.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.3% at 99.456, slipping to a one-week low after a 0.65% fall on Tuesday.

"Markets are increasingly buying into the notion of de-escalation in the Middle East overall," said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank.

"Markets are optimistic. We're seeing some relief with rates going lower, equities going higher and the price action in euro-dollar reflects that quite well."

The euro edged up 0.5% versus the dollar to $1.1603, after rising 0.8% on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen was up 0.1% at 158.46 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.7% to $1.3313.

At the same time, there were still signs of escalation in the conflict.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.

The dollar should remain supported by the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, while the yen is being underpinned by rising expectations of a Bank of Japan hike in April, said Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.

"We may see a tug-of-war between dollar strength and yen strength, with USD/JPY trading sideways in the upper 150s," he said.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.7% to $0.6946. New Zealand's kiwi strengthened 0.4% to $0.5770.