Libyan Dinar Slips on Black Market amid Central Bank Crisis

People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)
People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)
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Libyan Dinar Slips on Black Market amid Central Bank Crisis

People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)
People cross a street at Martyrs Square in Tripoli, Libya, July 5, 2021. (Reuters)

Libya's dinar currency is losing value against the US dollar in the country's black market amid a crisis over control of the central bank that has slashed oil output and exports.

Two black market dealers in Tripoli gave prices of 7.95 dinars to the dollar on Monday compared to 7.36 a week earlier, a drop of about 8%. The official exchange rate is 4.7 dinars to the greenback.

The sliding dinar may indicate that the impact of the ongoing dispute over leadership of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) is starting to hit the economy more widely, which may further destabilise the major oil producer, according to Reuters.

The dealers attributed the dinar's decline to a lack of dollars in the market as the crisis has stopped the CBL issuing letters of credit, a key tool of monetary policy and exchange and export transactions in Libya for years.

Its economy also relies heavily on oil revenue, and factions in eastern Libya have blockaded most exports as a tactic in the dispute over the CBL, leading to force majeure being declared on oil fields and cutting off the state's source of income.

The Government of National Unity, based in Tripoli in western Libya, has said it expects the CBL to resume issuing letters of credit this week.

The crisis began when Presidential Council chief Mohammed al-Menfi, based in Tripoli, last month announced he was replacing veteran central bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir, prompting pushback from eastern factions.

Legislative bodies aligned with the two sides are conducting UN-backed consultations aimed at resolving the crisis but have not yet announced significant progress. While the crisis continues, the CBL's access to international dollar markets appears limited.

"The exchange price is volatile because no dollars are entering the country, and oil (exports), the only source of revenue in the country, have also stopped," said a black-market dealer. The dinar could drop further if the crisis drags on, he added.

“There should be a solution very quickly because we, the citizens, are the only victim of the central bank crisis,” said Hisham Mohamed, a 45-year-old father of five in Tripoli.



IMF: Pakistan Wins More Financing Assurances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF: Pakistan Wins More Financing Assurances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Pakistan has received “significant financing assurances” from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates linked to a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) program that go beyond a deal to roll over $12 billion in bilateral loans owed to them by Islamabad, IMF Pakistan Mission Chief Nathan Porter said on Thursday.

Porter declined to provide details of additional financing amounts committed by the three countries but said they would come on top of the debt rollover.

The IMF's Executive Board on Wednesday approved a new $7 billion loan for cash-strapped Pakistan, more than two months after the two sides said they had reached an agreement.

The loan — which Islamabad will receive in installments over 37 months — is aimed at boosting Pakistan's ailing economy.

“I won't go into the specifics, but UAE, China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia all provided significant financing assurances joined up in this program,” Porter told reporters on a conference call.

The global lender said its immediate disbursement will be about $1 billion.

In a statement issued Thursday, the IMF praised Pakistan for taking key steps to restore economic stability. Growth has rebounded, inflation has fallen to single digits, and a calm foreign exchange market have allowed the rebuilding of reserve buffers.

But it also criticized authorities. The IMF warned that, despite the progress, Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and structural challenges remained formidable.

It said a difficult business environment, weak governance, and an outsized role of the state hindered investment, while the tax base remained too narrow.

“Spending on health and education has been insufficient to tackle persistent poverty, and inadequate infrastructure investment has limited economic potential and left Pakistan vulnerable to the impact of climate change,” it warned.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in a statement hailed the deal that his team had been negotiating with the IMF since June.

Sharif, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, told Pakistani media that the country had fulfilled all of the lender’s conditions, with help from China and Saudi Arabia.

“Without their support, this would not have been possible,” he said, without elaborating on what assistance Beijing and Riyadh had provided to get the deal over the line.

The Pakistani government has vowed to increase its tax intake, in line with IMF requirements, despite protests in recent months by retailers and some opposition parties over the new tax scheme and high electricity rates.

Pakistan for decades has been relying on IMF loans to meet its economic needs.

The latest economic crisis has been the most prolonged and has seen Pakistan facing its highest-ever inflation, pushing the country to the brink of a sovereign default last summer before an IMF bailout.

Inflation has since tempered, and credit ratings agency Moody’s has upgraded Pakistan’s local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to “Caa2” from “Caa3”, citing improving macroeconomic conditions and moderately better government liquidity and external positions.