Rising Geopolitical Tensions Driving Up Israel’s Cost of Insuring Sovereign Debt

A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
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Rising Geopolitical Tensions Driving Up Israel’s Cost of Insuring Sovereign Debt

A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)

Israel's economic concerns are growing amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing military conflicts, reflecting the profound impact of these crises on various vital sectors.
Recent data indicates that the cost of insuring Israel’s debt against default has risen to unprecedented levels.
This cost hit its highest levels since the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack last year, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed.
Israel's five-year credit default swaps (CDS) have risen to 149 basis points, from Friday’s close to 146 points, the highest level since Oct. 23 last year, according to Reuters.
A credit default swap is a financial instrument that allows an investor to transfer credit risk to another party, acting similar in nature to an insurance contract.
This CDS value translates to an implied probability of default of 2.41%, based on a presumed recovery rate of 40%.
The recovery rate represents the percentage of the bond's face value that investors expect to recover in the event of a default.
Meanwhile, Israel's tech sector has remained resilient during a year-long war with Hamas but as it relies on large companies and foreign investment, the sector faces funding uncertainty that could harm the broader economy, a government report showed on Monday.
Since the war began on Oct. 7, Israeli tech firms raised some $9 billion - third behind Silicon Valley and New York, according to the state-funded Israel Innovation Authority (IIA).
“The level of investment was pretty much the same as the same period before the war,” Dror Bin, CEO of the IIA, told Reuters.
“So despite the fact that risk went up for investments in Israel, they still see the potential of those startups, and they continue to invest in them,” he added.
High-tech drives Israel's economy and accounts for 16% of employment, more than half of Israel's exports, a third of income taxes and 20% of its overall economic output.

 



Egypt Approves $91 Billion Budget for 2025/26

 The sun rises in Cairo, Egypt March 25, 2025. (Reuters)
The sun rises in Cairo, Egypt March 25, 2025. (Reuters)
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Egypt Approves $91 Billion Budget for 2025/26

 The sun rises in Cairo, Egypt March 25, 2025. (Reuters)
The sun rises in Cairo, Egypt March 25, 2025. (Reuters)

Egypt's cabinet approved a 4.6 trillion Egyptian pound ($91 billion) draft state budget for the financial year that will begin in July, a government statement said on Wednesday, as it continues to tighten its finances under an IMF program.

Expenditures will rise by 18% and revenue by 19% over the current 2024/25 budget. Revenue is expected to hit 3.1 trillion pounds, working out to a deficit of about 1.5 trillion pounds ($30 billion).

The increased expenditure partly reflects elevated headline inflation, which was running at an annual 12.8% in February.

Financial reforms under an $8 billion financial reform program signed in March 2024 with the International Monetary Fund have helped Egypt bring inflation down from a peak of 38% in September 2023.

The IMF this month approved the disbursement of $1.2 billion to Egypt after its fourth review of the program.

The new budget targets a primary surplus of 795 billion pounds, equal to 4% of GDP, up from the 3.5% primary surplus originally targeted in the 2024/25 budget.

The IMF granted the government a waiver in the fourth review after the surplus came in 0.5% of GDP lower than Egypt's earlier commitment.

In its third review in June, the IMF praised Egypt for its "strict control of spending".

The new budget also lowers public debt to 82.9% of GDP from an expected 92% in 2024/25, the cabinet statement said.

The cabinet said 732.6 billion pounds in spending in the new budget would be allocated for subsidies, grants and social benefits, an increase of 15.2%.

The budget increases commodities and bread subsidies by 20% to 160 billion pounds. It will also include 75 billion pounds to subsidize petroleum products, 75 billion pounds to subsidize electricity and 3.5 billion pounds to subsidize natural gas deliveries to households, the statement added.