Rising Geopolitical Tensions Driving Up Israel’s Cost of Insuring Sovereign Debt

A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
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Rising Geopolitical Tensions Driving Up Israel’s Cost of Insuring Sovereign Debt

A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)

Israel's economic concerns are growing amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing military conflicts, reflecting the profound impact of these crises on various vital sectors.
Recent data indicates that the cost of insuring Israel’s debt against default has risen to unprecedented levels.
This cost hit its highest levels since the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack last year, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed.
Israel's five-year credit default swaps (CDS) have risen to 149 basis points, from Friday’s close to 146 points, the highest level since Oct. 23 last year, according to Reuters.
A credit default swap is a financial instrument that allows an investor to transfer credit risk to another party, acting similar in nature to an insurance contract.
This CDS value translates to an implied probability of default of 2.41%, based on a presumed recovery rate of 40%.
The recovery rate represents the percentage of the bond's face value that investors expect to recover in the event of a default.
Meanwhile, Israel's tech sector has remained resilient during a year-long war with Hamas but as it relies on large companies and foreign investment, the sector faces funding uncertainty that could harm the broader economy, a government report showed on Monday.
Since the war began on Oct. 7, Israeli tech firms raised some $9 billion - third behind Silicon Valley and New York, according to the state-funded Israel Innovation Authority (IIA).
“The level of investment was pretty much the same as the same period before the war,” Dror Bin, CEO of the IIA, told Reuters.
“So despite the fact that risk went up for investments in Israel, they still see the potential of those startups, and they continue to invest in them,” he added.
High-tech drives Israel's economy and accounts for 16% of employment, more than half of Israel's exports, a third of income taxes and 20% of its overall economic output.

 



IMF: Pakistan Wins More Financing Assurances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT

IMF: Pakistan Wins More Financing Assurances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Pakistan has received “significant financing assurances” from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates linked to a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) program that go beyond a deal to roll over $12 billion in bilateral loans owed to them by Islamabad, IMF Pakistan Mission Chief Nathan Porter said on Thursday.

Porter declined to provide details of additional financing amounts committed by the three countries but said they would come on top of the debt rollover.

The IMF's Executive Board on Wednesday approved a new $7 billion loan for cash-strapped Pakistan, more than two months after the two sides said they had reached an agreement.

The loan — which Islamabad will receive in installments over 37 months — is aimed at boosting Pakistan's ailing economy.

“I won't go into the specifics, but UAE, China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia all provided significant financing assurances joined up in this program,” Porter told reporters on a conference call.

The global lender said its immediate disbursement will be about $1 billion.

In a statement issued Thursday, the IMF praised Pakistan for taking key steps to restore economic stability. Growth has rebounded, inflation has fallen to single digits, and a calm foreign exchange market have allowed the rebuilding of reserve buffers.

But it also criticized authorities. The IMF warned that, despite the progress, Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and structural challenges remained formidable.

It said a difficult business environment, weak governance, and an outsized role of the state hindered investment, while the tax base remained too narrow.

“Spending on health and education has been insufficient to tackle persistent poverty, and inadequate infrastructure investment has limited economic potential and left Pakistan vulnerable to the impact of climate change,” it warned.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in a statement hailed the deal that his team had been negotiating with the IMF since June.

Sharif, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, told Pakistani media that the country had fulfilled all of the lender’s conditions, with help from China and Saudi Arabia.

“Without their support, this would not have been possible,” he said, without elaborating on what assistance Beijing and Riyadh had provided to get the deal over the line.

The Pakistani government has vowed to increase its tax intake, in line with IMF requirements, despite protests in recent months by retailers and some opposition parties over the new tax scheme and high electricity rates.

Pakistan for decades has been relying on IMF loans to meet its economic needs.

The latest economic crisis has been the most prolonged and has seen Pakistan facing its highest-ever inflation, pushing the country to the brink of a sovereign default last summer before an IMF bailout.

Inflation has since tempered, and credit ratings agency Moody’s has upgraded Pakistan’s local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to “Caa2” from “Caa3”, citing improving macroeconomic conditions and moderately better government liquidity and external positions.