Rising Geopolitical Tensions Driving Up Israel’s Cost of Insuring Sovereign Debt

A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
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Rising Geopolitical Tensions Driving Up Israel’s Cost of Insuring Sovereign Debt

A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)
A man holds an Israeli flag as he stands in front of a large picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Reuters)

Israel's economic concerns are growing amid rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing military conflicts, reflecting the profound impact of these crises on various vital sectors.
Recent data indicates that the cost of insuring Israel’s debt against default has risen to unprecedented levels.
This cost hit its highest levels since the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack last year, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed.
Israel's five-year credit default swaps (CDS) have risen to 149 basis points, from Friday’s close to 146 points, the highest level since Oct. 23 last year, according to Reuters.
A credit default swap is a financial instrument that allows an investor to transfer credit risk to another party, acting similar in nature to an insurance contract.
This CDS value translates to an implied probability of default of 2.41%, based on a presumed recovery rate of 40%.
The recovery rate represents the percentage of the bond's face value that investors expect to recover in the event of a default.
Meanwhile, Israel's tech sector has remained resilient during a year-long war with Hamas but as it relies on large companies and foreign investment, the sector faces funding uncertainty that could harm the broader economy, a government report showed on Monday.
Since the war began on Oct. 7, Israeli tech firms raised some $9 billion - third behind Silicon Valley and New York, according to the state-funded Israel Innovation Authority (IIA).
“The level of investment was pretty much the same as the same period before the war,” Dror Bin, CEO of the IIA, told Reuters.
“So despite the fact that risk went up for investments in Israel, they still see the potential of those startups, and they continue to invest in them,” he added.
High-tech drives Israel's economy and accounts for 16% of employment, more than half of Israel's exports, a third of income taxes and 20% of its overall economic output.

 



Trump Says He Will Raise US Global Tariff Rate from 10% to 15%

US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
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Trump Says He Will Raise US Global Tariff Rate from 10% to 15%

US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)

President Donald Trump said on Saturday he will raise temporary tariffs on almost all US imports from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program as invalid.

Trump had immediately announced a 10% across-the-board tariff on Friday after the court's decision, which ‌found the president ‌had exceeded his authority when ‌he ⁠imposed an array ⁠of higher rates under an economic emergency law.

The new levies are grounded in a separate law, known as Section 122, that allows tariffs up to 15% but requires congressional approval to extend them after 150 days.

In a ⁠social media post on Saturday, ‌Trump said he ‌would use that period to work on issuing other "legally ‌permissible" tariffs. The administration intends to rely ‌on two other statutes that permit import taxes on specific products or countries based on investigations into national security or unfair trade practices.

"I, as President of ‌the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% ⁠Worldwide ⁠Tariff on Countries, many of which have been 'ripping' the US off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level," he wrote in a Truth Social post.

Trump has shown little sign of backing off his global trade war in the hours since the court's 6-3 decision, attacking individual justices in personal terms and insisting he retained the power to impose tariffs as he sees fit.


Asian Economies Weigh Impact of Fresh Trump Tariff Moves, Confusion

 Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
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Asian Economies Weigh Impact of Fresh Trump Tariff Moves, Confusion

 Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)
Shoppers crowd for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations at the Dihua Street market in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, Feb. 15, 202. (AP)

US trading partners in Asia started weighing fresh uncertainties on Saturday after President Donald Trump vowed to impose a new tariff on imports, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of the sweeping levies he used to launch a global trade war.

The court's ruling invalidated a number of tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on Asian export powerhouses from China and South Korea to Japan and Taiwan, the world's largest chip maker and a key player in tech supply chains.

Within hours, Trump said he would impose a new 10% duty on US imports from all countries starting on Tuesday for an initial 150 days under a different law, prompting analysts to warn that more measures could follow, threatening more confusion for businesses and investors.

In Japan, a government spokesman said Tokyo "will carefully examine the content of this ruling and ‌the Trump administration's response ‌to it, and respond appropriately."

China, which is preparing to host Trump in ‌late ⁠March, has yet to ⁠formally comment or launch any counter moves with the country on an extended holiday. But a senior financial official in China-ruled Hong Kong described the US situation as a "fiasco".

Christopher Hui, Hong Kong's secretary for financial services and the treasury, Trump's new levy served to underscore Hong Kong's "unique trade advantages", Hui said.

"This shows the stability of Hong Kong's policies and our certainty ... it shows global investors the importance of predictability," Hui said at a media briefing on Saturday when asked how the new US tariff's would affect the city's economy.

Hong Kong operates as a separate customs territory from mainland China, a ⁠status that has shielded it from direct exposure to US tariffs targeting Chinese goods.

While ‌Washington has imposed duties on mainland exports, Hong Kong-made products have ‌generally faced lower tariff rates, allowing the city to maintain trade flows even as Sino-US tensions escalated.

Before the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump's ‌tariff push had strained Washington's diplomatic relations across Asia, particularly for export-reliant economies integrated into US-bound supply chains.

Friday's ruling ‌concerns only the tariffs launched by Trump on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, intended for national emergencies.

Trade policy monitor Global Trade Alert estimated that by itself, the ruling cuts the trade-weighted average US tariff almost in half from 15.4% to 8.3%.

For those countries on higher US tariff levels, the change is more dramatic. For China, Brazil and ‌India, it will mean double-digit percentage point cuts, albeit to still-high levels.

In Taiwan, the government said it was monitoring the situation closely, noting that the US government ⁠had yet to determine how ⁠to fully implement its trade deals with many countries.

"While the initial impact on Taiwan appears limited, the government will closely monitor developments and maintain close communication with the US to understand specific implementation details and respond appropriately," a cabinet statement said.

Taiwan has signed two recent deals with the US - one was a Memorandum of Understanding last month that committed Taiwan to invest $250 billion and the second was signed this month to lowering reciprocal tariffs.

Analysts say the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's more aggressive tariff measures may offer little relief for the global economy. They warned of looming confusion as trading nations brace for moves by Trump to find other means of using levies to circumvent the ruling.

Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office head Nantapong Chiralerspong said the ruling might even benefit its exports as uncertainty drove a fresh round of "front loading", where shippers race to move goods to the US, fearing even higher tariffs.

In corporate disclosures tracked by Reuters, firms across the Asia-Pacific region reported financial hits, supply shifts and withdrawals as levies escalated through 2025 and early 2026.


Brazil, India Eye Critical Minerals Deal as Leaders Meet

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
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Brazil, India Eye Critical Minerals Deal as Leaders Meet

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (L) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss efforts to increase trade links. Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are set to meet in New Delhi on Saturday, seeking to boost cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths.

Brazil has the world's second-largest reserves of these elements, which are used in everything from electric vehicles, solar panels and smartphones to jet engines and guided missiles.

India, seeking to cut its dependence on top exporter China, has been expanding domestic production and recycling while scouting for new suppliers.

Lula, heading a delegation of more than a dozen ministers as well as business leaders, arrived in New Delhi on Wednesday for a global summit, reported AFP.

Officials have said that in talks with Modi on Saturday, the two leaders are expected to sign a memorandum on critical minerals and discuss efforts to increase trade links.

The world's most populous nation is already the 10th largest market for Brazilian exports, with bilateral trade topping $15 billion in 2025.

The two countries have set a trade target of $20 billion to be achieved by 2030.

With China holding a near-monopoly on rare earths production, some countries are seeking alternative sources.

Rishabh Jain, an expert with the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water think tank, said India's growing cooperation with Brazil on critical minerals complements recent supply chain engagements with the United States, France and the European Union.

While these partnerships grant India access to advanced technologies, finance and high-end processing capabilities, "Global South alliances are critical for securing diversified, on-ground resource access and shaping emerging rules of global trade", Jain told AFP.

- 'Challenges' -

Modi and Lula are also expected to discuss global economic headwinds and strains on multilateral trade systems after both of their countries were hit by US tariffs in 2025, prompting the two leaders to call for stronger cooperation.

Washington has since pledged to roll back duties on Indian goods under a trade deal announced earlier this month.

"Lula and Modi will have the opportunity to exchange views on... the challenges to multilateralism and international trade," said Brazilian diplomat Susan Kleebank, the secretary for Asia and the Pacific.

Brazil is India's biggest partner in Latin America.

Key Brazilian exports to India include sugar, crude oil, vegetable oils, cotton and iron ore.

Demand for iron ore has been driven by rapid infrastructure expansion and industrial growth in India, which is on track to become the world's fourth largest economy.

Brazilian firms are also expanding in the country, with Embraer and Adani Group announcing plans last month to build aircraft in India.

Lula addressed the AI Impact summit in Delhi on Thursday, calling for a multilateral and inclusive global governance framework for artificial intelligence.

He will travel on to South Korea for meetings with President Lee Jae Myung and to attend a business forum.