China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Gold Edges Up on Weak US Dollar, Political Uncertainty

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters
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Gold Edges Up on Weak US Dollar, Political Uncertainty

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, aided by a weaker US dollar and political uncertainty following the latest import tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump.

Spot gold firmed 0.1% $2,918.83 an ounce as of 0955 GMT after rising nearly 1% on Tuesday. Prices hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24 and have gained 11% so far this year.

US gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,929.70.

"Uncertainty is food and water for gold and hence the bias on prices is to the upside," independent analyst Ross Norman said, Reuters reported.

"Gold looks content to consolidate after recent gains, but with one eye firmly on the $3,000 level."

The dollar index dropped to a three-month low, making bullion more appealing to other currency holders.

In an address to Congress, Trump said further tariffs would follow on April 2, including "reciprocal tariffs" and non-tariff actions aimed at balancing out years of trade imbalances. This came just after he followed through on new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada that took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%.

Meanwhile, top bullion consumer China unlocked more fiscal stimulus, promising greater efforts to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States.

Markets now await the ADP employment report due at 1315 GMT and US nonfarm payrolls on Friday for cues on the US interest rate trajectory.

"Geopolitical events and tariffs are currently overshadowing economic data... Significant deviations from market expectations would be needed to create meaningful movement, and any reaction to this week’s ADP and payrolls data is likely to be short-lived," said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Spot silver advanced 1% to $32.32 an ounce, platinum gained 1% to $970.20, and palladium added 1% to $951.50.