China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Insurance Costs for Ships in Strait of Hormuz Rise Over 60%

 The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping chokepoint for crude oil (Reuters) 
 The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping chokepoint for crude oil (Reuters) 
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Insurance Costs for Ships in Strait of Hormuz Rise Over 60%

 The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping chokepoint for crude oil (Reuters) 
 The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping chokepoint for crude oil (Reuters) 

Insurance prices for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz have jumped more than 60% since the start of the war between Israel and Iran as the conflict threatens shipping in a key chokepoint for crude oil, the Financial Times newspaper wrote on Wednesday.

As of this week, the cost of hull and machinery insurance for ships passing through the strait — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, connecting the Gulf to the Arabian Sea — as well as the wider Gulf area had risen from 0.125% of the value of the ship to about 0.2%, according to the world’s largest insurance broker Marsh McLennan.

This pushes the cost of cover for a $100 million ship from $125,000 to $200,000.

Hull and machinery insurance covers damage to the ship itself, as opposed to cargo or third-party liability.

“We’ve not yet seen a missile fired at a ship in the Arabian Gulf, so what it represents is the market saying, look, there’s definitely a heightened level of concern about the safety of shipping in the region,” Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo insurance at Marsh McLennan, told the Financial Times.

Prices could rise further, he added.

Ships trying to pass through the strait face a range of dangers, from electronic interference to attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi group and the threat of further escalation by Israel and Iran, said brokers and insurers.

On Monday there was a collision between two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

While the cause of the crash has not yet been publicized, one ship had transmitted atypical signals about its position, raising concerns about electronic interference.

Baker said insurers were also worried that Houthi militants could widen their attacks, damaging more ships than the US, UK and Israeli-flagged vessels they have generally been targeting.

The market is “concerned about every vessel” travelling through the area because of Houthi attacks, Baker said.

Some insurers could stop offering cover because of the risks, he added, but others might see any pullback as an opportunity.

“War itself, as an insurance product, tends to be...either you lose everything or make a fortune. And many fortunes have been made by underwriters prepared to take a risk,” he said.

Insurance rates for cargo, including oil, were also likely to rise because of the conflict, multiple brokers said, but had been slower to respond.