Oil Prices Flat as Investors Await US Inventory Data

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
TT

Oil Prices Flat as Investors Await US Inventory Data

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil prices traded flat on Thursday as investors eye developments in the Middle East and more details on China's stimulus plans, and await the release of official US oil inventory data.
Brent crude futures were down 4 cents to $74.18 a barrel by 0648 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.37 a barrel, down 2 cents.
Both benchmarks settled down on Wednesday, closing at their lowest levels since Oct. 2 for a second day in a row, said Reuters.
The benchmarks are down 6-7% so far this week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency cut demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
Prices have also fallen as risk premiums have cooled with fears having eased that a retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran could disrupt oil supplies, though uncertainty remains over conflict in the Middle East.
"We are now playing a waiting game for two things. Firstly, the China NPC (National People's Congress) standing committee to flesh out the details and the size of the fiscal stimulus package which I believe is coming," Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst in Sydney, said.
Investors are waiting for further details from Beijing on its broad plans announced on Oct. 12 to revive its ailing economy.
China said on Thursday it would expand a "white list" of housing projects eligible for financing and increase bank lending for such developments to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) as it aims to shore up its ailing property market.
Sycamore said Israel's response to Iran's recent attack was the second major focus for the market.
"It's coming, we know that but we don't know when," he said, adding that both factors created upside risks for crude oil prices.
In Iran, the authorities are working to control an oil spill off Kharg Island, the country's IRNA news agency reported on Wednesday.
"It appears to be unrelated to the Israel-Hamas war, but it drew attention to Iran's oil export facilities," ANZ analysts said in a note.
In the US, crude oil and fuel stocks fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday, against expectations of a build-up in crude stockpiles.
Crude stocks fell by 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 11, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.93 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.67 million barrels, they said.
Ten analysts polled by Reuters had estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11.
"Any signs of weak demand in EIA's weekly inventory report could put further downward pressure on oil prices," ANZ analysts said.
The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, will release its data at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on Thursday.
Also supporting oil prices, the European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates again on Thursday, the first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years, as it shifts focus from cooling inflation in the euro zone to protecting economic growth.



Oil Steadies after Fall as Middle East Uncertainty Persists

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
TT

Oil Steadies after Fall as Middle East Uncertainty Persists

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil steadied on Wednesday, supported by OPEC+ cuts and uncertainty over what may happen next in the Middle East conflict, although an outlook for ample supply next year added downward pressure.

Crude fell more than 4% to a near two-week low on Tuesday in response to a weaker demand outlook and after a media report said Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear and oil sites, easing fears of supply disruptions.

Brent crude oil futures were down 33 cents, or 0.4%, at $73.92 a barrel by 1110 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $70.20, according to Reuters.

Still, concern about an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah persists. OPEC+ supply curbs remain in place until December when some members are scheduled to start unwinding one layer of cuts.

"We would be somewhat surprised if the geopolitical risk premium has disappeared for the time being," said Norbert Ruecker of Julius Baer.

"We see the market heading towards a supply surplus by 2025," he added.

On the demand side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency this week cut their 2024 global oil demand growth forecasts, with China accounting for the bulk of the downgrades.

Economic stimulus in China has failed to give oil prices much support. China may raise an additional 6 trillion yuan ($850 billion) from special treasury bonds over three years to stimulate a sagging economy, local media reported.

"Monetary and fiscal efforts to revive the Chinese economy are proving a damp squib," said Tamas Varga at oil broker PVM.

Coming up is the latest US oil inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute's report is due later on Wednesday, followed by the government's figures on Thursday. Both reports are published a day later than normal following a federal holiday.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected crude stockpiles rose by about 1.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11.