US Job Growth Slowed Sharply in October amid Steady Unemployment Rate

A worker transports items during Cyber Monday at the Amazon fulfillment center in Robbinsville Township in New Jersey, US (Reuters/File)
A worker transports items during Cyber Monday at the Amazon fulfillment center in Robbinsville Township in New Jersey, US (Reuters/File)
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US Job Growth Slowed Sharply in October amid Steady Unemployment Rate

A worker transports items during Cyber Monday at the Amazon fulfillment center in Robbinsville Township in New Jersey, US (Reuters/File)
A worker transports items during Cyber Monday at the Amazon fulfillment center in Robbinsville Township in New Jersey, US (Reuters/File)

US job growth likely slowed sharply in October amid disruptions from hurricanes and strikes by aerospace factory workers, but a steady unemployment rate should offer assurance that the labor market remained on solid footing ahead of Tuesday's election.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 in October from the previous month, after employment in September shot up by 223,000 jobs.
A Reuters survey of economists showed that nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 113,000 jobs last month after surging 254,000 in September. Estimates ranged from no jobs added to 200,000 positions created. October's anticipated payrolls count would be the smallest in six months.
Hurricane Helene devastated the Southeast in late September and Hurricane Milton lashed Florida a week later.
The Labor Department reported last week that there were 41,400 new workers on strike, including 33,000 machinists at Boeing and 5,000 at Textron, an aircraft company, when employers were surveyed for October's employment report. The remaining 3,400 were workers at three hotel chains in California and Hawaii.
Workers who do not receive a paycheck during the survey period, which includes the 12th day of the month, are counted as unemployed in the survey of establishments from which the payrolls number is calculated.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report is the last major economic data before Americans head to the polls to choose Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump as the country's next president.
Polls show the race is a toss-up. Americans have not warmed up to the economy's strong performance, which has outshined its global peers, rankled by high prices for food and rents. Low layoffs have been the hallmark of the labor market's strength.
The unemployment rate was seen unaffected by the distortions as the striking workers would be counted as employed in the household survey from which the rate is derived. Workers unable to work because of bad weather would be reported as employed, “with a job, but not at work” as per the BLS' classification.
Economists said a marginal rise in the unemployment rate would not be alarming and expected the Federal Reserve to sort through the noise and cut interest rates by 25 basis points next Thursday.
A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in July from 3.8% in March was one of the catalysts for the US central bank's unusually large half-percentage-point interest rate cut in September, the first reduction in borrowing costs since 2020.
The Fed's policy rate is now set in the 4.75%-5.00% range, having been hiked by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023.
Though employers have pulled back on hiring, they are retaining their workers, underpinning wage gains and consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.3% in September. They were likely lifted by hourly paid workers dropping out of the payrolls calculation.
Wages increased 4.0% in the 12 months through October after advancing 3.9% in September.

 

 

 



Oil Gains More Than $1/bbl on Reports Iran Preparing Strike on Israel

A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
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Oil Gains More Than $1/bbl on Reports Iran Preparing Strike on Israel

A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Oil prices extended gains on Friday, climbing more than $1 a barrel to pare weekly losses, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rose following reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in the coming days.
Brent crude futures, which have rolled to the January contract, climbed $1.41, or 2%, to $74.22 a barrel by 0456 GMT, Reuters said.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.46, or 2.1%, to $70.72 a barrel after settling up 0.95% in the previous session.
Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election on Nov. 5, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.
The attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles, the Axios report added.
Oil prices were also supported by expectations that OPEC+ could delay December's planned increase to oil production by a month or more, four sources close to the matter told Reuters on Wednesday, citing concern about soft oil demand and rising supply. A decision to delay the increase could come as early as next week, two of the sources said.
However, prices are set to fall more than 1% for the week, struggling to recover from a 6% loss on Monday after Israel's strike against Iran's military on Oct. 26 bypassed oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies.
"Despite the crude oil market looking to lock in a third straight day of gains, it has been unable to completely erase the large gap lower that followed Monday's re-open," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore based in Sydney.
However, WTI's rebound should extend back towards where it closed last Friday at about $71.80, he added, as tensions in the Middle East returned to focus.
"After that, though, all bets are off. I think it will depend on who wins the US election and what fiscal stimulus details, if any, come from the NPC standing committee meeting," Sycamore said, referring to major events in the US and China, world's largest oil consumers, next week.
In China, manufacturing activity swung back to growth in October, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, echoing an official survey on Thursday that showed manufacturing activity expanded in October for the first time in six months. Both surveys suggest stimulus measures are having an effect.
US gasoline stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week to a two-year low on strengthened demand, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, while crude inventories also posted a surprise drawdown as imports slipped.
The world's largest oil producer pumped a monthly record high of 13.4 million barrels per day in August, EIA said.