Aramco Maintains $31 Billion in Dividends Despite Profit Decline

Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
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Aramco Maintains $31 Billion in Dividends Despite Profit Decline

Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)

Saudi Aramco retained its position as the world’s top dividend distributor, maintaining its quarterly payouts at $31.05 billion, despite a 15.4% year-over-year drop in third-quarter net profit to $27.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $26.3 billion. The profit decline was mainly attributed to lower crude oil prices and weaker margins in its chemicals segment, though partly offset by reduced production royalties, income tax, and zakat.

According to Aramco’s data, the average oil price during Q3 2023 was $79.3 per barrel, down 11.2% from $89.3 per barrel in Q3 2022. The company’s dividend distributions include $20.3 billion in base dividends and $10.8 billion in performance-linked payouts scheduled for Q4.

Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, highlighted the company’s strong net income and free cash flow despite the lower oil prices. He affirmed Aramco’s commitment to maintaining positive momentum and strengthening its position as a global leader in energy and petrochemicals.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Asset Management Officer at Arbah Financial, explained the 15.4% profit decline was driven by several factors, primarily lower crude oil prices, which directly affect Aramco’s revenue and profits. Additionally, the chemicals and refining businesses faced weak profit margins due to challenges like rising operational costs and a global demand slowdown. Economic factors such as inflation and higher interest rates also impacted energy demand, pressuring Aramco’s earnings.

Al-Farraj further noted that while oil price drops reduce Aramco’s revenue and impact refining margins, the chemicals sector faces additional challenges from higher raw material and energy costs, as well as intense competition. Despite these challenges, Aramco remains committed to its generous dividend policy, reflected in its substantial quarterly payout of $31.05 billion.

Aramco’s stock remained stable, trading at SAR27.55, up by about 0.2%. According to Al-Farraj, investor confidence in Aramco is bolstered by its financial strength and regular dividends, with strong growth prospects in renewable energy and petrochemical investments.

Energy researcher and OPEC Research Fellow Dr. Youssef Al-Shammari added that Aramco has become more resilient and less dependent on oil prices for profitability. He noted that Aramco’s financial and investment strategies make it less vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Additionally, he pointed out a general decline in global refining margins due to weaker global demand.



Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher US bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week, Reuters reported.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed US services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

"We're getting very strong US numbers... which has rates going up," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

"There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly."

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

US private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of US rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key US labor data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second US presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

"With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the US, and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

"That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there's still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures."

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labor government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

Japan's consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank's view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

China's yuan hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.