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Oil Slips on Sverdrup Field Restart, Geopolitical Fears Support

FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
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Oil Slips on Sverdrup Field Restart, Geopolitical Fears Support

FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo

Oil slipped on Tuesday pressured by the restart of production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, although investor caution arising from fears of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war limited the decline.
Equinor has resumed partial production from the oilfield, Western Europe's largest, following a power outage. An outage at the North Sea field helped prices to climb by over 3% on Monday, Reuters reported.
Brent crude futures were down 45 cents, or 0.6%, to $72.85 a barrel by 0915 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped by 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $68.70.
"I guess the partial restart of the Sverdrup field is the driver of the setback, as well as a slightly stronger US dollar," said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS.
The US dollar edged up on Tuesday to within striking distance of its one-year high. A strong dollar makes commodities like oil more expensive for other currency holders and tends to weigh on prices.
Another continuing outage provided support. Kazakhstan's biggest oilfield, Tengiz, has reduced oil output by 28% to 30% for repairs which are expected to be completed by Saturday, the country's energy ministry said.
A rise in geopolitical tensions also supported prices.
In a significant reversal of policy, US President Joe Biden's administration allowed Ukraine to use the U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two US officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday.
The Kremlin said on Monday that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by the Biden administration, having previously warned that such a decision would raise the risk of a confrontation with the US-led NATO alliance.
Investors are wary, said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, as they are "assessing the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war after the weekend's escalation".
While oil's outright price has found support this week, the market structure has weakened. US crude flipped to contango for the first time since February on Monday in a sign that supply tightness was easing.

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Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Currency depreciation is set to reverse years of declining inflation in economically beleaguered Venezuela, public and private sector sources say, as foreign currency sales fall short of demand and the socialist government keeps tight-lipped about its strategy.

After years of hyperinflation and amid broad US sanctions, in 2022 the administration of President Nicolas Maduro began using orthodox policies including credit restrictions, lower public spending, a fixed dollar-bolivar rate and central bank sales of billions of dollars in foreign currency to tamp down consumer prices.

Maduro, who will begin his third term in January after a disputed election that the opposition and international observers say he lost, has said his government defeated inflation of more than 100,000% and prices in 2024 are similar to those in 2014.

But the administration's policy has now changed.

After more than nine months of the exchange rate being held at 36.5 bolivars to the dollar, the government in mid-October allowed the currency to float, beginning a depreciation that has seen the bolivar slide to about 45 versus the dollar, according to central bank figures.

Analysts say the over-valued currency made imports cheaper than locally-produced goods, impacting Venezuela's private sector and helping push prices up by 12% in nine months.

The untethering of the exchange rate will also put upward pressure on prices in the final quarter of 2024, financial and business sources said, with analysts predicting in a LatinFocus survey the rate will end the year at 50 bolivars to the dollar.

Year-on-year inflation was 25% through September. Official figures for October have not yet been released.

"For nine months the depreciation of the currency was zero while inflation was rising, which exposed problems in the exchange scheme," said economics professor and consultant Daniel Cadenas, who added the market depends on oil income. "For the system to function, there needs to be a growing source of exchange and that's not possible."

The government had predicted internally that inflation would close the year at 30%, two sources with knowledge of the projection said, but depreciation could increase the figure and local analysts have estimated inflation between 35% and 40%.

"There has been a necessary adjustment in the exchange rate that will have an impact on inflation," said Asdrubal Oliveros, head of local think tank Ecoanalitica. "The government has understood it needs to devaluate."

REDUCED CENTRAL BANK SALES

Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who until recently also served as finance minister, told an event with business people last month that there must be "reflection" about the use of foreign exchange.

"We should all be concerned with how foreign exchange is used in imports. It is a subject the Finance Ministry is reviewing," she said. "We need to take care of foreign exchange because this is a blockaded country and there cannot be cheap exchange for hair dye."

Rodriguez's comments are the only ones made on the subject by the government since devaluation began. Neither the central bank nor the communications or finance ministries responded to requests for comment.

Private sector demand for cheap foreign exchange increased during the nine months the rate was held, even as the quantity of dollars being injected into the market by the central bank was reduced, sources said.

In July the bank was offering some $800 million, but by October that figure had fallen to $400 million, according to calculations by local consultancy Sintesis Financiera.

The central bank did not respond to a question about the reduction.

"The strategy in exchange policy is not going ahead," a government source said, without giving further details.

Food and medicine companies in Venezuela are allowed to pay for some of their goods with foreign currency, while other companies are given central bank promissory notes indexed to a specific exchange rate.

Two private sector sources said many businesses are eating through their inventories in the face of import difficulties.