Global Markets Reel from Putin's Nuclear Threats

A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
TT

Global Markets Reel from Putin's Nuclear Threats

A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS

President Vladimir Putin’s remarks on Tuesday about revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine triggered immediate reactions in global financial markets, as investors rushed to safe haven assets.

Putin issued a warning to the US lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike after the administration of Joe Biden reportedly allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles deep into Russia.

The Russian President’s warnings sent markets to extreme volatility.

In this context, global stocks sharply fell while gold prices and the Japanese yen climbed amid rising geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday, “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it or the Republic of Belarus, ... with the use of conventional weapons, in a way that poses a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity.”

The spokesperson further said that Russia would view the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by Ukraine as an attack by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state against the country, potentially justifying the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow, according to NBC news.

Rise of safe-haven assets

Global stocks briefly fell and investors fled to safe-haven assets on Tuesday, as global markets reacted to escalating tensions between the world's two largest nuclear powers: Russia and the US.

Investors rushed to safe-haven assets including gold and the Japanese yen.

Wall Street’s fear index, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, jumped to 17,88, its highest level since the November 5 US elections. It then fell to 16.61.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 327 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% each. Treasurys increased as investors moved into the safe haven, driving yields lower.

Europe's main stock index touched its lowest level in three months on Tuesday, spurring investors to head to safer havens.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed 0.9% lower, after logging a third straight day of losses.

Metals and currencies under pressure

Meanwhile, base metals prices came under pressure on Tuesday as some investors chose safe-haven assets due to signs of escalating tensions between Russia and the United States over Ukraine.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.3% to $9,042 per metric ton in official open-outcry trading. Spot gold prices rose by about 1%.

Meanwhile, LME aluminium prices were stable at $2,607 in official activity as the market digested China's plan to remove a tax refund on exports of some aluminium products.

Lead lost 0.4% to $1,983 due to the second day of a significant inflow of the metal to the LME-registered warehouses in Singapore.

Zinc fell 0.1% to $2,947.5, tin eased 0.4% to $28,900 and nickel rose 1.2% to $15,915.

In currency markets, the Japanese yen rose 0.7% and 0.36% against the euro and US dollar respectively.

“Typical risk-off move in forex following the headline,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at Bofa, referring to the reaction to the Kremlin statement.

“The market has been complacent on geopolitical risks, focusing on other themes,” he added. “Positioning has been a long risk, getting even more stretched after the US elections.”

In return, crude oil futures were down slightly. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate, scheduled for delivery in December, fell 0.53% to $68.79.

Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of Brent, scheduled for delivery in January, fell 0.38% to $73.02.



Thiaw Ahead of COP16: $355 Billion Needed Annually to Combat Desertification

Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
TT

Thiaw Ahead of COP16: $355 Billion Needed Annually to Combat Desertification

Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)

With the 16th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (COP16) set to take place in Riyadh in early December, the world is focusing on solutions to one of the planet’s most urgent environmental challenges.

Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the convention, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the global economic cost of desertification is estimated at $878 billion annually. He emphasized that increased investment is essential to restore degraded lands and address this pressing issue effectively.

COP16 will gather global leaders and policymakers to explore strategies for combating drought and advancing green initiatives both regionally and globally. Thiaw highlighted the critical funding gap in combating desertification. From 2025 to 2030, the world will need $355 billion annually, but current funding levels are only $77 billion, leaving a $278 billion shortfall, he said, adding that without urgent action, 100 million hectares of land could degrade each year, directly impacting 1.3 billion people.

Uncontrolled land degradation poses severe risks, including up to a 50% reduction in crop yields in some regions by 2050, according to Thiaw. He noted that this decline would drive food prices up by 30% and significantly worsen food insecurity, especially in vulnerable areas. By mid-century, half of the global grain supply could face extreme water scarcity. The annual economic toll of desertification, land degradation, and drought represents approximately 2% of global GDP.

Thiaw expressed hope that COP16 will achieve tangible progress by prioritizing investments in land restoration to enhance resilience against drought. He emphasized that restoring degraded lands could significantly improve soil health, potentially boosting global crop yields by 2% by 2050. This progress would be particularly impactful in regions like the Middle East and North Africa.

Implementing sustainable land management practices could also mitigate the effects of drought by improving water retention and increasing ecosystem resilience. In this regard, the executive secretary of COP16 stressed the importance of partnerships among governments, international organizations, and the private sector to attract investments and fund sustainable projects. He pointed to public-private collaborations and blended financing as key mechanisms, alongside international support through grants and loans, especially in Africa, where the annual investment gap stands at $191 billion.

Thiaw further said that restoring land addresses multiple global challenges, including food security, poverty, climate change, biodiversity loss, and forced migration. He underlined the role of sustainable agriculture in improving soil health, creating green jobs, and building community resilience, while ensuring long-term sustainability.

Moreover, emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, are crucial for monitoring land degradation and enabling timely interventions. Thiaw encouraged countries to adopt these technologies to improve land management and restoration efforts.

He also highlighted the vital role of women in combating desertification, noting that while women produce 80% of the world’s food, they own less than 20% of its land. Empowering women and securing their land rights could lead to more sustainable practices and strengthen communities’ resilience to desertification and drought, he stated.