Oil Prices Set to End Week over 3% Lower as Supply Risks Ease

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
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Oil Prices Set to End Week over 3% Lower as Supply Risks Ease

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a weekly drop of more than 3%, as concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased, alleviating earlier disruption fears.
Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $72.73 a barrel by 0758 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.52, down 20 cents, or 0.3%, compared with Wednesday's closing price.
On a weekly basis, Brent futures were down 3.3% and the U.S. WTI benchmark was trading 3.8% lower.
Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah traded accusations on Thursday over alleged violations of their ceasefire that came into effect the day before. The deal had at first appeared to alleviate the potential for supply disruption from a broader conflict that had led to a risk premium for oil.
Oil supplies from the Middle East, though, have been largely unaffected during Israel's parallel conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1 to avoid a scheduling conflict. OPEC+ is expected to further extend its production cuts at the meeting.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, downgraded its Brent price forecast on Friday to $76/bbl in 2025 from $78/bbl previously, citing a "bearish fundamental outlook, ongoing weakness in oil market sentiment and the downside pressure on prices we expect to accrue under Trump."
"Although we expect the OPEC+ group will opt to roll-over the existing cuts into the new year, this will not be sufficient to fully erase the production glut we forecast for next year," BMI analysts said in a note.
Also on Thursday, Russia struck Ukrainian energy facilities for the second time this month. ANZ analysts said the attack risked retaliation that could affect Russian oil supply.
Iran told a UN nuclear watchdog it would install more than 6,000 additional uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants, a confidential report by the watchdog said on Thursday.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said Iranian supply could drop by as much as 1 million barrels per day in the first half of next year if Western powers tighten sanctions enforcement on its crude oil output.



Oil Up as Israel, Hezbollah Trade Accusations of Ceasefire Violation

FILE - An aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, makes an appearance over pumpjacks as they draw out oil and gas from well heads near Cremona, Alberta, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP, File)
FILE - An aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, makes an appearance over pumpjacks as they draw out oil and gas from well heads near Cremona, Alberta, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP, File)
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Oil Up as Israel, Hezbollah Trade Accusations of Ceasefire Violation

FILE - An aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, makes an appearance over pumpjacks as they draw out oil and gas from well heads near Cremona, Alberta, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP, File)
FILE - An aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, makes an appearance over pumpjacks as they draw out oil and gas from well heads near Cremona, Alberta, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

Oil prices ticked up on Thursday after Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah traded accusations that their ceasefire had been violated, and as Israeli tanks fired on south Lebanon.

OPEC+ also delayed by a few days a meeting likely to extend production cuts.

Brent crude futures edged up by 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.13 a barrel by 1741 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 23 cents, 0.3%, at $68.93. Trading was thin because of the US Thanksgiving holiday, Reuters reported.
Israel's military said the ceasefire was violated after what it called suspects, some in vehicles, arrived at several areas in the southern zone.
The deal, which took effect on Wednesday, was intended to allow people in both countries to start returning to homes in border areas shattered by 14 months of fighting.
The Middle East is one of the world's major oil-producing regions, and while the ongoing conflict has not so far not impacted supply it has been reflected in a risk premium for traders.
Elsewhere, OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1 to avoid a conflict with another event.
Also supporting prices, OPEC+ sources have said there will again be discussion over another delay to an oil output increase scheduled for January.
"It's highly unlikely they are going to announce an increase production at this meeting," said Rory Johnston, analyst at Commodity Context.
The group pumps about half the world's oil but has maintained production cuts to support prices. It hopes to unwind those cuts, but weak global demand has forced it to delay the start of gradual increases.
A further delay has mostly been factored in to oil prices already, said Suvro Sarkar at DBS Bank. "The only question is whether it's a one-month pushback, or three, or even longer."
Depressing prices slightly, US gasoline stocks rose 3.3 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 22, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, countering expectations of a small draw in fuel stocks ahead of holiday travel.
Slowing fuel demand growth in top consumers China and the US has weighed on oil prices this year.