Türkiye Inflation Higher than Expected, Teeing up Tough Rate Decision

 People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
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Türkiye Inflation Higher than Expected, Teeing up Tough Rate Decision

 People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)

Turkish inflation was higher than expected at 47.09% annually and 2.24% on a monthly basis in November, official data showed on Tuesday, potentially reducing the prospect of an interest rate cut later this month.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks jumped 5.1% from the previous month, the Turkish Statistical Institute data showed, underlining the central bank's continued struggle against years of high inflation. Health-related prices rose 2.69%.

In a Reuters poll, the consumer price index inflation rate was expected to slow to 46.6% on an annual basis, while the monthly figure was seen at 1.91%, mainly due to food and medicine prices.

Although above expectations, annual inflation in November was at its lowest level since mid-2023. In October, annual inflation was 48.58% with the monthly rate at 2.88%.

The central bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points since June last year as part of an abrupt shift to economic orthodoxy, and has kept its policy rate steady at 50% since March.

It is watching monthly inflation closely as it decides when to cut its main interest rate, with expectations having grown in recent weeks that easing could come as soon as December.

Delaying rate cuts until next year, after "critical decisions" on the minimum wage and other administered prices "would be more appropriate", said Haluk Burumcekci, founding partner at Burumcekci Consulting, of an expected Jan. 1 rise to minimum wage.

But he added the central bank's latest policy statement "suggests that rate cuts are a serious option" for December.

After its policy meeting last month, the bank said it would set its rate to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path, setting the stage for a cautious easing cycle.

The bank had also predicted that food would elevate overall inflation in November. Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said on Tuesday that while food inflation remained high, aside from that there was a broadly more positive trend.

The Turkish lira was little changed after the data at 34.7505 to the dollar, having earlier touched a record low.

Economists had flagged medicine prices as an inflation driver in November since the government late last month hiked by 23.5% the euro rate for imported medicines.

The domestic producer price index was up 0.66% month-on-month in November for an annual rise of 29.47%, according to the data.

The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling to 44.8% by year-end, close to the central bank's target of 44%. It also showed inflation falling to 26.5% at end-2025, compared to the central bank's view of 21%.



IMF Says US Tax, Spending Bill Runs Counter to Deficit-Cutting Advice

 Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
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IMF Says US Tax, Spending Bill Runs Counter to Deficit-Cutting Advice

 Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)
Pens lay on a table before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., arrives to sign President Donald Trump's signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP)

The massive US tax and spending bill slated for a final vote in Congress runs counter to the International Monetary Fund's recommendations that Washington reduce fiscal deficits over the medium term, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday.

Kozack told a regular news briefing that there was a broad consensus that the Republican bill will add to US fiscal deficits, while the US needs to start a fiscal consolidation.

"From the IMF side, we have been consistent in saying that the US will need to reduce its fiscal deficit over time to put public debt-to-GDP on a decisive downward path," Kozack said. "Of course, the sooner that process starts to reduce the deficit, the more gradual the deficit reduction can be over time."

Kozack said that there were many policy options for the US to reduce deficits and debt, adding: "It is, of course, important to build consensus within the United States about how it will address its these chronic fiscal deficits."

In recent years, the IMF has recommended that the US raise taxes, including on middle income earners, to close fiscal deficits. The Republican tax bill extends 2017 tax cuts and adds new tax breaks for many Americans.

The IMF advice is at odds with the views of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has consistently said that he disagrees with traditional budget forecasts and believes that the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will spur additional US economic growth that will boost revenues.

The United States is the biggest shareholder of the IMF. Bessent, who manages the US stake, has criticized the Fund for straying too far from its core economic stability and surveillance missions.

Kozack said that the IMF was examining details of the US legislation and the likely impact on the economy, and will incorporate its analysis into the late July update of its World Economic Outlook global growth forecasts.

The forecasts also will assess the state of play on US tariffs, after President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline to subject many countries to sharply higher duties unless they agree trade deals.