Oil Prices Drop on Soft Chinese Spending Data

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Prices Drop on Soft Chinese Spending Data

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil futures dropped from their highest levels in weeks on Monday, pressured by weakness in consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer.

Brent crude futures fell 53 cents, or 0.71%, to $73.96 a barrel by 1300 GMT after settling on Friday at their highest since Nov. 22.

US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 65 cents, or 0.91%, to $70.64 after registering its highest close since Nov. 7 in the previous session.

Chinese industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, but retail sales were slower than expected, keeping pressure on Beijing to ramp up stimulus for a fragile economy facing US trade tariffs under a second Trump administration, Reuters reported.

"Risk off following some weaker than expected Chinese economic data is weighing on crude prices. Market participants are still awaiting guidance how Chinese officials plan to stimulate the economy," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The Chinese outlook contributed the decision by oil producer group OPEC+ to postpone plans for higher output until April.

"Whatever stimulus is being deployed, consumers are not buying into it; and without a serious sea-change in personal spending behaviour, China's economic fortunes will be stunted," said John Evans at oil broker PVM.

Traders also took profits while awaiting the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates this week.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that light profit-taking was to be expected after prices jumped more than 6% last week.

He also noted that many banks and funds are likely to have closed their books given reduced appetite for positions during the holiday season.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, which will also provide an updated look at how much further Fed officials think they will reduce rates in 2025 and perhaps into 2026.

Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand.

Also limiting oil price declines were supply disruption concerns on the potential for more US sanctions against Russia and Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday that the US is exploring additional sanctions on "dark fleet" tankers and could target Chinese banks to limit oil revenue that helps to fund Russia as it continues the war in Ukraine.

Fresh US sanctions on entities trading Iranian oil are already driving prices of the crude sold to China to its highest in years, with the incoming Trump administration expected to ramp up pressure on Iran.



Omani Revenues Rise 15% in 2024, Driven by Higher Oil Prices

The Omani Capital, Muscat (Omani News Agency)
The Omani Capital, Muscat (Omani News Agency)
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Omani Revenues Rise 15% in 2024, Driven by Higher Oil Prices

The Omani Capital, Muscat (Omani News Agency)
The Omani Capital, Muscat (Omani News Agency)

Preliminary data from Oman’s Ministry of Finance showed that the country’s revenues in 2024 reached approximately 12.7 billion Omani rials ($33 billion), marking a 15% increase compared to initial budget forecasts.

Spending was reduced to 11.65 billion rials ($30 billion), a 4% decrease from planned expenditure. This resulted in an actual surplus of 540 million rials, instead of the anticipated deficit of 640 million rials.

The improved financial performance was largely due to a 37% rise in the average price of oil, which reached $82 per barrel, compared to the initially projected $60. However, Oman’s average daily oil production saw a slight decline, dropping to 1.001 million barrels from 1.031 million barrels.

The additional revenue of 468 million rials was allocated to social spending and economic growth initiatives. This included funding for fuel subsidies, electricity, water, sanitation, and waste management. Health and education sectors received increased budgets to support service expansion, while additional funds were provided for social security beneficiaries, low-income families, and debt forgiveness for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Oman’s public debt declined by 5.3% in 2024, falling from 15.2 billion rials at the start of the year to 14.4 billion rials. Debt now represents 34% of GDP, down from 36.5%.

In November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported significant economic expansion in Oman, with growth accelerating from 1.2% in 2023 to 1.9% in the first half of 2024. This growth was driven by non-oil sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and services, despite reduced oil production. The IMF highlighted Oman’s progress in implementing Vision 2040 reforms, which included strengthening social safety nets, improving labor market flexibility, and enhancing the business environment. The country’s sovereign credit rating was upgraded to investment grade, reflecting its improved economic fundamentals.

While growth in 2024 is projected at 1.2%, further recovery is expected in 2025 as hydrocarbon production increases alongside non-oil sector expansion. Challenges such as oil price volatility and geopolitical risks remain, but Oman continues its efforts to diversify the economy and attract investments.

Sultan Haitham bin Tariq approved Oman’s 2025 budget, which anticipates a deficit of 620 million rials ($1.6 billion). Revenues are estimated at 11.18 billion rials ($29 billion), a 1.5% increase from 2024, while spending is projected at 11.8 billion rials ($30.65 billion), a 1.3% rise.

Finance Minister Sultan al-Habsi emphasized that global economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and weaker oil demand, present challenges for oil-exporting nations. The 2025 budget focuses on maintaining fiscal and social stability, allocating significant funds to education, health, housing, and social welfare. Subsidies for social protection and electricity support are also prioritized.

Development spending across provinces reached 147 million rials by the end of 2024, aligning with efforts to promote decentralized growth. Oman is also undertaking financial reforms, including periodic reviews of government service fees, simplifying administrative processes, and modernizing financial regulations to improve fiscal management.