Oil Edges Up ahead of US Fed Rate Decision, 2025 Outlook

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Edges Up ahead of US Fed Rate Decision, 2025 Outlook

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil edged up on Wednesday as a drop in US crude inventories offered some support, although investors stayed cautious ahead of a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and its projections for 2025.

Brent futures rose 53 cents, or 0.7%, to $73.72 a barrel at 1436 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 54 cents, or 0.8%, to $70.62.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter point, but to signal a cautious approach to loosening monetary policy next year.

"A quarter-point cut itself is unlikely to shake markets much. Investors may focus more on hints and clues on how likely a January pause is, as well as on how many rate cuts policymakers are contemplating throughout 2025," said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM, Reuters reported.

The US central bank will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1900 GMT), followed by remarks from Chair Jerome Powell.

Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

"Oil prices ought to see more of a reaction to the crude inventory draw seen in the API data overnight... however, such is the diverting power of central bank rate decisions that investors in all of the trading mediums are taking a very light touch to proceedings" said John Evans, analyst with oil broker PVM.

In the US, American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday showed that crude stocks fell by 4.69 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 13, a source said. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.45 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels, according to the source.

Analysts projected US energy firms pulled about 1.6 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended Dec. 13, according to a Reuters poll on Tuesday.

The US Energy Information Administration will release its oil storage data on Wednesday.

"Trade war fears and uncertainty on how aggressively the US Fed will cut interest rates next year is likely capping the upside for now," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.



Gold Edges Down as Markets Eye Fed's 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
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Gold Edges Down as Markets Eye Fed's 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo

Gold prices edged lower as the dollar held firm on Wednesday, with investors awaiting a key US Federal Reserve decision expected to shape market sentiment and gold's trajectory by outlining the central bank's 2025 outlook.

Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $2,637.13 per ounce by 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT). US gold futures were down 0.3% at $2,653.20.

The Fed's 2025 economic projections and decision are due at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), followed by Fed chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST, Reuters reported.

"What markets will truly focus on is the tone set by Jerome Powell. A hawkish stance could drive Treasury yields higher and bolster the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

"Conversely, a more cautious tone might provide some support for bullion."

While markets are pricing in a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during this meeting, the chances of another reduction in January stand at only 17%.

Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Traders are also watching out for key US GDP and inflation data due later this week that could further shape expectations around monetary policy.

"I do see the consolidation as a continuation pattern within the longer term uptrend in gold. I think that trend will re-exert itself in the first quarter of 2025," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Grant highlighted that bullion remains underpinned by easing central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, sustained buying by central banks, and rising global political instability.

UBS echoed this sentiment in a note, predicting gold would "build on its gains in 2025." The bank emphasized that central banks are likely to continue accumulating gold as they diversify reserves, while heightened demand for hedges could drive inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot silver fell 1.1% at $30.19 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.3% to $926.90, while palladium declined 1.3% to $922.19.