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Oil Edges Up ahead of US Fed Rate Decision, 2025 Outlook

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Edges Up ahead of US Fed Rate Decision, 2025 Outlook

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil edged up on Wednesday as a drop in US crude inventories offered some support, although investors stayed cautious ahead of a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and its projections for 2025.

Brent futures rose 53 cents, or 0.7%, to $73.72 a barrel at 1436 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 54 cents, or 0.8%, to $70.62.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter point, but to signal a cautious approach to loosening monetary policy next year.

"A quarter-point cut itself is unlikely to shake markets much. Investors may focus more on hints and clues on how likely a January pause is, as well as on how many rate cuts policymakers are contemplating throughout 2025," said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM, Reuters reported.

The US central bank will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1900 GMT), followed by remarks from Chair Jerome Powell.

Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

"Oil prices ought to see more of a reaction to the crude inventory draw seen in the API data overnight... however, such is the diverting power of central bank rate decisions that investors in all of the trading mediums are taking a very light touch to proceedings" said John Evans, analyst with oil broker PVM.

In the US, American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday showed that crude stocks fell by 4.69 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 13, a source said. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.45 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels, according to the source.

Analysts projected US energy firms pulled about 1.6 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended Dec. 13, according to a Reuters poll on Tuesday.

The US Energy Information Administration will release its oil storage data on Wednesday.

"Trade war fears and uncertainty on how aggressively the US Fed will cut interest rates next year is likely capping the upside for now," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

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Honda, Nissan Move to Deepen Ties, Sources say, Including Possible Merger

FILE - Nissan Chief Executive Makoto Uchida, left, and Honda President Toshihiro Mibe attend a joint news conference in Tokyo, Friday, March 15, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP, File)
FILE - Nissan Chief Executive Makoto Uchida, left, and Honda President Toshihiro Mibe attend a joint news conference in Tokyo, Friday, March 15, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP, File)
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Honda, Nissan Move to Deepen Ties, Sources say, Including Possible Merger

FILE - Nissan Chief Executive Makoto Uchida, left, and Honda President Toshihiro Mibe attend a joint news conference in Tokyo, Friday, March 15, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP, File)
FILE - Nissan Chief Executive Makoto Uchida, left, and Honda President Toshihiro Mibe attend a joint news conference in Tokyo, Friday, March 15, 2024. (Kyodo News via AP, File)

Honda and Nissan are in talks to deepen ties, two people said on Wednesday, including a possible merger, the clearest sign yet of how Japan's once seemingly unbeatable auto industry is being reshaped by challenges from Tesla and Chinese rivals.
A combined Honda and Nissan would create a $54 billion company with annual output of 7.4 million vehicles, making it the world's third-largest auto group by vehicle sales after Toyota and Volkswagen, Reuters reported.
The two firms already forged a strategic partnership in March to cooperate in electric vehicle development, but Nissan's deepening financial and strategic trouble in recent months has added more urgency for closer cooperation with larger rival Honda.
Nissan announced a $2.6 billion cost savings plan last month that includes cutting 9,000 jobs and 20% of its global production capacity, as slumping sales in China and the United States led to an 85% plunge in second-quarter profit.
"This deal appears to be more about bailing out Nissan, but Honda itself is not resting on its laurels," said Sanshiro Fukao, executive fellow at Itochu Research Institute. "Honda's cash flow is set to deteriorate next year and its EVs haven't been going so well."
Shares of Nissan closed nearly 24% higher in Tokyo trade on Wednesday, while shares of Honda, whose market value of $43 billion is more than four times bigger than that of Nissan, declined 3%. Shares of Mitsubishi Motors, in which Nissan is the top shareholder with a 24% stake, gained nearly 20%.
The automakers have been grappling with challenges from EV makers, particularly in China, where BYD and others have surged ahead.
The talks between Honda and Nissan, first reported by the Nikkei newspaper, could allow the companies to cooperate more on technology and help them create a more formidable domestic rival to Toyota.
The discussions are focused on finding ways to bolster collaboration and include the possibility of setting up a holding company, said the people, who declined to be identified because the information has not been made public.
The companies are also discussing the possibility of a full merger, according to one of the people, as well as looking at ways to cooperate with Mitsubishi.
Honda, Nissan and Mitsubishi said no deal had been announced by any of the companies, though Nissan and Mitsubishi noted the three automakers had said previously they were considering opportunities for future collaboration.
French automaker Renault, a major Nissan shareholder, said it had no information and declined to comment.
Renault shares jumped 6.5%.
The three Japanese automakers are expected to hold a joint news conference in Tokyo on Monday, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Taiwan's Foxconn, which manufactures Apple's iPhones and has been seeking to expand its nascent EV contract manufacturing business, approached Nissan about a bid but it was rejected by the Japanese firm, two separate sources familiar with the matter said.
Bloomberg News reported earlier on Wednesday that Foxconn had approached Nissan to take a controlling stake.
Foxconn did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while a Nissan spokesperson declined to comment on Foxconn.
CHANGING LANDSCAPE
Over the past year, an EV price war launched by Tesla and BYD has intensified pressure on any automakers losing money on the next-generation vehicles. That has put pushed companies like Honda and Nissan to seek ways to cut costs and speed vehicle development, and mergers are a major step in that direction.
"In the mid- to long-term, this is good for the Japanese car industry as it creates a second axis against Toyota," said Seiji Sugiura, a senior analyst at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory.
"Constructive rivalry with Toyota is a positive for the rather stagnating Japanese car industry when it must compete with Chinese automakers, Tesla and others."
Any merger would face significant US scrutiny and President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to take a hard line on imported vehicles, including threatening 25% tariffs on vehicles shipped from Canada and Mexico. He could seek concessions from Honda and Nissan to approve any deal, auto industry officials said.
Honda and Nissan both produce cars in Mexico for export to the US
Honda and Nissan would also have to work out how to integrate their different corporate cultures if they proceed with a merger, analysts said.
"Honda has a unique, technology-centric culture with strengths in powertrains, so there should be some internal resistance to the merger with Nissan, a competitor with a different culture that is now faltering," said Tang Jin, a senior researcher at Mizuho Bank.