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Russian Wheat Export Prices Rise

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
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Russian Wheat Export Prices Rise

FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows a combine harvesting wheat in a field in the Rostov Region, Russia July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov//File Photo

Russian wheat export prices rose last week, tracking global prices, with analysts expecting weak export activity due to the upcoming long New Year holiday.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the end of January was up $3 to $237 per metric ton.

The Sovecon consultancy saw prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at $233 to $239 per ton, compared with $232 to $238 the previous week.

Russian FOB is expected to be mostly flat on low trade activity, the agency said in a weekly report.

Weekly grain exports were estimated at 0.83 million metric tons, including 0.78 million tons of wheat, up from 0.53 million tons of grain including 0.44 million tons of wheat the previous week as shipments recovered after storm disruptions. Sovecon has upgraded its estimates of December wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons, compared to 3.6 million tons a year ago.

IKAR estimates December wheat exports at 3.6-3.7 million tons, down from 4.4 million tons in November. Algeria is believed to have purchased 1.17 million tons of wheat this week. Some traders also expect some Russian wheat to be supplied. Egypt’s state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, contracted about 1.267 million tons of wheat, most of which was sourced from Russia, two sources with direct knowledge told Reuters.

Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy said on Thursday it saw 2025/26 wheat exports down 6% to 41 million tons. Sovecon said on Monday that Russian wheat exports will fall by 17% to 36.4 million tons in the 2025/26 exporting season. Its forecast for the 2024/2025 season was revised to 43.7 million tons, from 44.1 million tons.

Russia harvested 125 million tons of grain and legumes, including 82 million tons of wheat, in clean weight, in 2024, down 13% from last year, data from statistical agency Rosstat showed on Thursday.

The wheat harvest is also down by 13%, to 82.4 million tons. Winter grains were sown over 17.6 million hectares, 1 million hectares less than in 2023. Temperatures remain above normal in all regions, Sovecon noted. The Russian state weather forecasting agency sees worsening conditions for winter cereals in January in the center of Russia and the Volga region.

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Growth of Non-Oil Sectors Position Saudi Arabia Among Leading Global Economies

 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Growth of Non-Oil Sectors Position Saudi Arabia Among Leading Global Economies

 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s economy continued its upward trajectory in 2024, solidifying its status as one of the world’s most stable and fastest-growing markets. This momentum is being driven by the Kingdom’s unwavering commitment to economic diversification — a central pillar of Vision 2030 — which has significantly boosted non-oil sectors, expanded private sector participation, and increased the economy’s ability to generate jobs and attract investment.

Non-oil activities now contribute a record 51% to real GDP, marking a major milestone in the country’s transformation journey.

According to the Vision 2030 annual report, Saudi Arabia’s real non-oil GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024 compared to the previous year, fueled by ongoing investments across diverse sectors. Non-oil activities alone expanded by 4.3% year-on-year, reflecting the success of structural reforms and strategic national programs.

At the heart of Vision 2030 is the ambition to build a thriving economy. One of the key benchmarks is improving Saudi Arabia’s position in global GDP rankings. In 2016, the Kingdom ranked 20th worldwide. By 2030, it aims to break into the top 15, with a targeted GDP of SAR 6.5 trillion ($1.7 trillion).

In early 2024, Saudi Arabia adopted a new moving-chain methodology to measure GDP more accurately. Under this updated system, real GDP has grown consistently since 2016 at a compound annual rate of 1.75%, excluding the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020. Non-oil GDP, meanwhile, has shown even stronger performance, expanding at a 3.01% annual pace over the same period.

While the 2024 non-oil GDP target was narrowly missed, the outcome reached 98% of the goal — a strong showing amid global uncertainties. Leading contributors included wholesale and retail trade, hospitality, transportation, logistics, and information technology.

Non-oil exports also played a pivotal role in economic growth, achieving over 75% of their annual targets. Gains came primarily from increased exports of non-oil goods and a sharp rise in re-exports, underlining Saudi Arabia’s growing role in global trade flows.

The private sector’s role in the economy has expanded significantly, with its contribution to GDP reaching 47% — surpassing the 2024 target. Since 2016, this contribution has grown at a compound annual rate of 1.94%.

This progress reflects ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on oil, empower private enterprise, and enhance the Kingdom’s global competitiveness. Key initiatives include national strategies aimed at unlocking sectoral potential, the Public Investment Fund’s push to stimulate private capital, and the successful drive to attract global companies to relocate their regional headquarters to Saudi Arabia.

The government continues to foster a dynamic business environment, supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) through regulatory reforms and major development projects. These efforts span several sectors, including manufacturing, transport, logistics, and foreign investment.

Global Confidence, Positive Outlook

International confidence in the Saudi economy remains strong. In 2024, the world’s top three credit rating agencies affirmed the Kingdom’s sovereign creditworthiness. Moody’s assigned a rating of “Aa3” with a stable outlook; Fitch rated it “A+” with a stable outlook; and S&P awarded an “A/A-1” rating, also with a stable outlook.

Global institutions are also optimistic about the Kingdom’s growth prospects. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts Saudi economic growth at 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026 — well above the global average.