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Gold Extends Gains into New Year as Traders Brace for Trump Policies

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
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Gold Extends Gains into New Year as Traders Brace for Trump Policies

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO

Gold prices rose on Thursday, keeping up the momentum from a positive end to record-breaking 2024, as traders braced for US President-elect Donald Trump's expected policy shifts that will shape the economic and interest rate outlook for the new year.
Bullion surged over 27% last year, its biggest annual gain since 2010, as the US Federal Reserve's substantial rate cuts, robust central bank purchases and escalating geopolitical tensions boosted it to multiple record highs last year.
On the first trading session of the year, spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,634.88 per ounce, as of 0553 GMT. US gold futures edged up 0.2% to $2,646.70, Reuters said.
"Gold seems to be consolidating in a tight range, which often signals a market that's poised for a breakout. I suspect that breakout will be to the upside," said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com.
Gold is likely to remain bullish in 2025, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of rising government debt due to a deep fiscal deficit under Trump’s administration, despite potential challenges from slower Fed rate cuts and dollar strength, Rodda said.
The market will now take cues from a slew of US economic data due next week, which could influence the interest rate outlook for 2025, and Trump's tariff policies.
Donald Trump will be sworn in as president of the United States on Jan. 20.
Traders anticipate the Fed to adopt a slow and cautious approach to further rate cuts in 2025, as inflation continues to exceed its 2% target. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in just 11.2% chance of a cut in January.
Gold, which is seen as a safe investment in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, tends to be negatively impacted by high interest rates.
Spot silver rose 1.6% to $29.34 per ounce, palladium added 1.1% to $913.47 and platinum gained 0.9% to $918.65.
Silver ended 2024 as its best year since 2020, while platinum and palladium declined.

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Saudi Trade Surplus Hits 10-Month High as Imports Decline

King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, Eastern Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, Eastern Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Trade Surplus Hits 10-Month High as Imports Decline

King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, Eastern Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, Eastern Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia posted its highest trade surplus in 10 months in February, buoyed by a sharp drop in merchandise imports, a trend that supports state revenues, bolsters currency stability, and reflects strong global demand for locally produced goods.

The Kingdom recorded a trade surplus of 31 billion riyals ($8.26 billion) in February, up 44.6% from 21 billion riyals in January and higher than the 29 billion riyals recorded in the same month last year, data from the General Authority for Statistics showed.

The surge came despite a slight dip in exports, as merchandise imports fell by 5.6% month-on-month to 63 billion riyals ($16.7 billion) — the lowest level since late 2023. Meanwhile, merchandise exports stood at 94 billion riyals ($18.3 billion), down from 97 billion riyals in January.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports, including re-exports, rose 14.3% year-on-year in February to 26 billion riyals ($6.9 billion), up from 23 billion riyals in the same month last year, driven by ongoing efforts to boost domestic industry and global market access.

The growth comes as the Kingdom steps up its “Made in Saudi” initiative, aimed at helping local companies expand operations, tap new customer bases, and market their products to a wider audience. The program is part of Riyadh’s broader push to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil.

Trade experts say the rise in exports relative to imports is supported by a mix of financial incentives, export facilitation, and expanded logistics infrastructure across air, land and sea.

China remained Saudi Arabia’s largest export destination in February, accounting for 16.2% of total exports. South Korea followed with 10.1%, and the United Arab Emirates came third with 9%.

Dr. Fawaz Alamy, an international trade expert, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the trade surplus reflects the Kingdom’s successful policies to stimulate the private sector and boost the competitiveness of national products abroad. He said recent regulatory reforms have eliminated key obstacles for exporters and helped create entities that support global expansion.

He added that government agencies are working closely with the private sector by providing consulting services, financing, and market targeting strategies to facilitate international trade.

“Saudi Arabia’s non-oil activities are now growing steadily and contributing more than 50% to GDP,” Alamy said, noting this aligns with Vision 2030 goals to build a diversified and thriving economy.

Economic analyst Ahmed Al-Shehri echoed the sentiment, saying February’s trade surplus highlights the success of government collaboration in enhancing the export environment, overcoming exporter challenges, and improving export-related knowledge and talent.

He added that authorities continue to support the private sector and create an attractive environment for local and foreign investment. “In recent years, the government has worked to understand and remove the challenges facing domestic companies to ensure they can drive economic growth,” Al-Shehri said.

He noted that the non-oil sector’s contribution to GDP is now around 50%, adding: “Government agencies are actively helping manufacturers and exporters identify global market opportunities and deliver tailored support.”