Turkish Annual Inflation Falls More Than Expected to 44.38%

A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo
A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo
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Turkish Annual Inflation Falls More Than Expected to 44.38%

A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo
A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo

Turkish annual consumer price inflation fell more than expected to 44.38% in December, official data showed on Friday, with education, housing and restaurant prices leading the rise.

Month on month, inflation was 1.03%, the Turkish Statistical Institute said, compared with 2.24% in November. Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) was 47.09% in November.

Furniture prices rose 2.78% from the previous month, data showed, while telecoms-related prices gained by 1.82%.

In a Reuters poll, the annual inflation rate was expected to fall to 45.2%, with the monthly figure seen at 1.61%, owing to easing food price inflation and a limited rise in energy prices.

The latest inflation print was close to the central bank's midpoint prediction of 44% for the end of 2024.

The bank, having kept its main interest rate steady at 50% since March, launched an easing cycle last week, cutting the policy rate by 250 basis points to 47.5%.

The bank said it will set policy "prudently" meeting by meeting with a focus on the inflation outlook while responding to any expected "significant and persistent deterioration".

The Turkish lira was little changed after the data at 35.3850 to the dollar, hovering around the record lows.

The domestic producer price index was up 0.4% month on month in December for an annual rise of 28.52%, the data showed.



Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher US bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week, Reuters reported.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed US services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

"We're getting very strong US numbers... which has rates going up," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

"There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly."

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

US private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of US rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key US labor data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second US presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

"With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the US, and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

"That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there's still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures."

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labor government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

Japan's consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank's view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

China's yuan hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.