Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher US bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week, Reuters reported.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed US services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

"We're getting very strong US numbers... which has rates going up," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

"There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly."

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

US private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of US rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key US labor data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second US presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

"With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the US, and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

"That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there's still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures."

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labor government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

Japan's consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank's view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

China's yuan hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.



Lebanon's Bonds Rally as Parliament Elects 1st President since 2022

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri shakes hands with Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun after he is elected as the country’s president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, Jan. 9, 2025. Reuters/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri shakes hands with Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun after he is elected as the country’s president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, Jan. 9, 2025. Reuters/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon's Bonds Rally as Parliament Elects 1st President since 2022

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri shakes hands with Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun after he is elected as the country’s president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, Jan. 9, 2025. Reuters/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri shakes hands with Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun after he is elected as the country’s president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, Jan. 9, 2025. Reuters/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanese government bonds extended their three-month-long rally on Thursday as the crisis-ravaged country's parliament voted in a new head of state for the first time since 2022.

Lebanese lawmakers elected army chief Joseph Aoun as president. It came after the failure of 12 previous attempts to pick a president and boosts hopes that Lebanon might finally be able to start addressing its dire economic woes.

The country's battered bonds have almost trebled in value since September, when the regional conflict with Israel weakened Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, long viewed as an obstacle to overcoming its political paralysis.

According to Reuters, most of Lebanon's international bonds, which have been in default since 2020, rallied after Aoun's victory was announced to stand 1.3 to 1.7 cents higher on the day and at just over 16 cents on the dollar.

They have risen almost every day since late December, although they remain some of the lowest-priced government bonds in the world, reflecting the scale of Lebanon's difficulties.

With its economy and financial system still reeling from a collapse in 2019, Lebanon is in dire need of international support to rebuild from the conflict, which the World Bank estimates to have cost the country $8.5 billion.

Hasnain Malik, an analyst at financial research firm Tellimer said Aoun's victory was "the first necessary step on a very long road to recovery".

Malik said Aoun now needs to appoint a prime minister and assemble a cabinet that can retain the support of parliament, resuscitate long-delayed reforms and help Lebanon secure international financial support.

The 61-year old Aoun fell short of the required support in Thursday's first round of parliamentary voting and only succeeded in a second round, reportedly after a meeting with Hezbollah and Amal party MPs.

"That presents significant ongoing risk to any new PM and cabinet, which need to maintain the confidence of a majority of parliament," Malik said.