Oil Trims Gains on Dollar Strength, Tight Supplies Provide Support

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
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Oil Trims Gains on Dollar Strength, Tight Supplies Provide Support

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo

Oil prices trimmed earlier gains on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened but continued to find support from a tightening of supplies from Russia and other OPEC members and a drop in US crude stocks.

Brent crude was up 21 cents, or 0.27%, at $77.26 a barrel at 1424 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 27 cents, or 0.36%, to $74.52.

Both benchmarks had risen more than 1% earlier in the session, but pared gains on a strengthening US dollar.

"Crude oil took a minor tumble in response to a strengthening dollar following news reports that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal ground for universal tariffs," added Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank.

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

"The drop (in oil prices) seems to be driven by a general shift in risk sentiment with European equity markets falling and the USD getting stronger," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in December after two months of increases, a Reuters survey showed.

In Russia, oil output averaged 8.971 million barrels a day in December, below the country's target, Bloomberg reported citing the energy ministry.

US crude oil stocks fell last week while fuel inventories rose, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Despite the unexpected draw in crude stocks, the significant rise in product inventories was putting those prices under pressure, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

Analysts expect oil prices to be on average down this year from 2024 due in part to production increases from non-OPEC countries.

"We are holding to our forecast for Brent crude to average $76/bbl in 2025, down from an average of $80/bbl in 2024," BMI, a division of Fitch Group, said in a client note.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.