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Gold Firms; Focus on US Data for Cues on Fed's Policy Path

FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo
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Gold Firms; Focus on US Data for Cues on Fed's Policy Path

FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A woman looks at a gold bangle inside a jewellery showroom at a market in Mumbai January 15, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade//File Photo

Gold prices hovered near a four-week peak on Thursday, while focus shifted to jobs report due on Friday for clarity on the Federal Reserve's 2025 interest rate path.
Spot gold edged 0.1% higher to $2,664.30 per ounce, as of 0732 GMT. US gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,681.80
"Prices are trading in a narrow range ... A new trigger is needed for gold to breach its resistance," said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai.
The bullion hit a near four-week high in the previous session after a weaker-than-expected US private employment report hinted that the Fed may be less cautious about easing rates this year.
The market now awaits US jobs report on Friday for more cues on the Fed's policy path.
Investors are also awaiting Donald Trump to take office on Jan. 20 and his proposed tariffs and protectionist policies are expected to fuel inflation.
Policymakers at the Fed's last meeting also "noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated," the minutes showed on Wednesday.
Bullion is considered an inflationary hedge, but high rates reduce the non-yielding asset's allure.
"We believe the bulk of the rally has been put in and that while gold's upward momentum may carry it higher in the near term and in early 2025, a combination of physical and financial market factors may tame the rally and drive gold moderately lower by the end of next year," HSBC said in a note.
Elsewhere, physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered their first inflow in four years, the World Gold Council said.
Spot silver added 0.2% to $30.17 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.3% to $952.54 and palladium shed 0.8% to $921.37.

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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The US dollar charged ahead on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs.

The focus for markets in 2025 has been on US President-elect Donald Trump's agenda as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures, according to Reuters.

CNN on Wednesday reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries. On Monday, the Washington Post said Trump was looking at more nuanced tariffs, which he later denied.

Concerns that policies introduced by the Trump administration could reignite inflation has led bond yields higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.6709% on Thursday.

"Trump's shifting narrative on tariffs has undoubtedly had an effect on USD. It seems this capriciousness is something markets will have to adapt to over the coming four years," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

The bond market selloff has left the dollar standing tall and casting a shadow on the currency market.

Among the most affected was the pound, which was headed for its biggest three-day drop in nearly two years.

Sterling slid to $1.2239 on Thursday, its weakest since November 2023, even as British government bond yields hit multi-year highs.

Ordinarily, higher gilt yields would support the pound, but not in this case.

The sell-off in UK government bond markets resumed on Thursday, with 10-year and 30-year gilt yields jumping again in early trading, as confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook deteriorates.

"Such a simultaneous sell-off in currency and bonds is rather unusual for a G10 country," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

"It seems to be the culmination of a development that began several months ago. The new Labour government's approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election, and business and consumer sentiment is severely depressed."

Sterling was last down about 0.69% at $1.2282.

The euro also eased, albeit less than the pound, to $1.0302, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week as investors remain worried the single currency may fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per dollar mark that led to Tokyo intervening in the market last July, after it touched a near six-month low of 158.55 on Wednesday.

Though it strengthened a bit on the day and was last at 158.15 per dollar. That all left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, up 0.15% and at 109.18, just shy of the two-year high it touched last week.

Also in the mix were the Federal Reserve minutes of its December meeting, released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank flagged new inflation concerns and officials saw a rising risk the incoming administration's plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

With US markets closed on Thursday, the spotlight will be on Friday's payrolls report as investors parse through data to gauge when the Fed will next cut rates.