Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.



Gold on Track for Weekly Gain on Trump Uncertainty; US Jobs Report Awaited

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
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Gold on Track for Weekly Gain on Trump Uncertainty; US Jobs Report Awaited

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk

Gold prices inched higher on Friday as uncertainty around US President-elect Donald Trump's policies firmed demand for bullion, while investors awaited a key jobs report to assess the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory.
Spot gold edged 0.2% higher to $2,675.49 per ounce as of 0725 GMT. Bullion has gained more than 1% so far this week, set for its highest weekly jump since mid-November. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,698.30.
The US non-farm payrolls report is due at 1330 GMT. According to a Reuters survey, payrolls are expected to have increased by 160,000 in December, following a jump of 227,000 in November.
"We expect gold to drop a little in case the non-farm payroll report comes on a higher side," said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.
"Gold found support after a weaker-than-expected private employment report for December reinforced the notion that the Fed may need to adopt a less cautious approach to rate cuts," Trivedi said.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Thursday signaled a reluctance to cut rates again as the Fed faces a resilient economy and inflation that remains above its 2% target.
Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration policies may also prolong the fight against inflation.
Traders now expect the first Fed rate cut this year in either May or June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold acts as a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates reduce the appeal of holding the bullion.
Spot silver was up 0.3% to $30.2 per ounce and the COMEX contract was trading at $31.17, both near one-month peaks.
"Our view is that the incoming US administration will tailor economic and trade policy to promote national prosperity, and that silver will recover along with gold in the second half (of 2025) to $35 per ounce," Deutsche Bank said in a note.
Platinum shed 0.4% to $955.97 and palladium added 0.9% to $934.16. All three metals were also set for weekly gains.