Syria’s New Central Bank Chief Vows to Boost Bank Independence Post Assad

A bank teller counts Syrian pound banknotes at the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus, Syria, 09 January 2025. (EPA)
A bank teller counts Syrian pound banknotes at the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus, Syria, 09 January 2025. (EPA)
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Syria’s New Central Bank Chief Vows to Boost Bank Independence Post Assad

A bank teller counts Syrian pound banknotes at the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus, Syria, 09 January 2025. (EPA)
A bank teller counts Syrian pound banknotes at the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus, Syria, 09 January 2025. (EPA)

Syria's new central bank governor, Maysaa Sabreen, said she wants to boost the institution's independence over monetary policy decisions, in what would be a sea change from the heavy control exerted under the Assad regime.

Sabreen, previously the Central Bank of Syria's number two, took over in a caretaker role from former governor Mohammed Issam Hazime late last year.

She is a rare example of a former top state employee promoted after Syria's new rulers' lightning offensive led to President Bashar al-Assad's fall on Dec. 8.

"The bank is working on preparing draft amendments to the bank's law to enhance its independence, including allowing it more freedom to make decisions regarding monetary policy," she told Reuters in her first media interview since taking office.

The changes would need the approval of Syria’s new governing authority, though the process is at this stage unclear. Sabreen gave no indication of timing.

Economists view central bank independence as critical to achieve long-term macroeconomic and financial sector stability.

While the Central Bank of Syria has always been, on paper, an independent institution, under Assad's regime the bank's policy decisions were de facto determined by the government.

Syria's central bank, Sabreen added, was also looking at ways to expand Islamic banking further to bring in Syrians who avoided using traditional banking services.

"This may include giving banks that provide traditional services the option to open Islamic banking branches," Sabreen, who has served for 20 years at the bank, told Reuters from her office in bustling central Damascus.

Limited access to international and domestic financing meant the Assad government used the central bank to finance its deficit, stoking inflation.

Sabreen said she is keen for all that to change.

"The bank wants to avoid having to print Syrian pounds because this would have an impact on inflation rates," she said.

Asked about the size of Syria's current foreign exchange and gold reserves, Sabreen declined to provide details, saying a balance sheet review was still underway.

Four people familiar with the situation told Reuters in December that the central bank had nearly 26 tons of gold in its vaults, worth around $2.2 billion, some $200 million in foreign currency and a large quantity of Syrian pounds.

The Central Bank of Syria and several former governors are under US sanctions imposed after former Assad’s violent suppression of protests in 2011 that spiraled into a 13-year civil war.

Sabreen said the central bank has enough money in its coffers to pay salaries for civil servants even after a 400% raise promised by the new administration. She did not elaborate.

Reuters reported that Qatar would help finance the boost in public sector wages, a process made possible by a US sanctions waiver from Jan. 6 that allows transactions with Syrian governing institutions.

INFLATION CHALLENGE

Analysts say stabilizing the currency and tackling inflation will be Sabreen's key tasks - as well as putting the financial sector back on a sound footing.

The Syrian currency's value has tumbled from around 50 pounds per US dollar in late 2011 to just over 13,000 pounds per dollar on Monday, according to LSEG and central bank data.

The World Bank in a report in spring 2024 estimated that annual inflation jumped nearly 100% year-on-year last year.

The central bank is also looking to restructure state-owned banks and to introduce regulations for money exchange and transfer shops that have become a key source of hard currency, said Sabreen, who most recently oversaw the banking sector.

Assad's government heavily restricted the use of foreign currency, with many Syrians scared of even uttering the word "dollar".

The new administration of de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa abolished such restrictions and now locals wave wads of banknotes on streets and hawk cash from the backs of cars, including one parked outside the central bank's entrance.

To help stabilize the country and improve basic services, the US last week allowed sanctions exemptions for humanitarian aid, the energy sector and sending remittances to Syria, although it reiterated the central bank itself remained subject to sanctions.

Sabreen said allowing personal transfers from Syrians abroad was a positive step and hoped sanctions would be fully lifted so banks could link back up to the global financial system.



US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.