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Iran’s Khamenei Faces Gravest Crisis of His Rule as US Strike Force Gathers

A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
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Iran’s Khamenei Faces Gravest Crisis of His Rule as US Strike Force Gathers

A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)

Ali Khamenei has crushed unrest and survived foreign pressure before but, with his envoys racing to avert threatened American airstrikes through ongoing talks, Iran's Supreme Leader faces the gravest crisis of his 36-year rule.

An embittered population toils under a sanctions-hit economy. Huge protests in January were crushed at a cost of thousands of lives. Israeli and US. strikes last year smashed prized nuclear and missile facilities. Iran's regional policy lies in tatters, with old allies and proxies weakened or gone.

With the risk of war hanging over the Middle East, the 86-year-old's fierce devotion to the Islamic Republic, his implacable hostility to the West and his record of guile in spinning out negotiations will shape the fate of the region.

PRESERVING IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AT ALL COSTS

Already this year, he has ordered the deadliest crackdown since the 1979 revolution, saying protesters "should be put in their place" before security forces opened fire on demonstrators chanting "Death to the dictator!".

US President Donald Trump's threats to bomb Iran again come only months after Khamenei was forced into hiding last June by strikes that killed several close associates and Revolutionary Guard commanders.

That assault was among the many indirect results of the attack on Israel by the Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas on October 7, 2023, which not only triggered the war in Gaza but also spurred Israel to hammer Tehran's other ‌regional proxies.

With Hezbollah weakened ‌in Lebanon and Syria's Bashar al-Assad toppled, Khamenei's reach across the Middle East has been stunted. Now he faces ‌US demands ⁠to abandon Iran's ⁠best remaining strategic lever, its arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Iran has even offered apparent concessions on its nuclear program, which it says is purely civilian but is seen by the West and Israel as a path to an atomic bomb.

But Khamenei refuses to even discuss giving up missiles, which Iran sees as its only remaining deterrent to Israeli attack, a display of intransigence that may itself invite US airstrikes.

As the US military buildup intensifies, Khamenei's calculations will draw on a character molded by revolution, years of turmoil and war with Iraq, decades of sparring with the United States, and a ruthless accumulation of power.

Khamenei has ruled since 1989 and holds ultimate authority over all branches of government, the military and the judiciary.

While elected officials manage day-to-day affairs, no major policy - especially one concerning the United States - proceeds without his explicit approval; Khamenei's mastery of Iran's complex system of clerical rule combined with limited democracy ensures that no ⁠other group can challenge his decisions.

AS LEADER, KHAMENEI WAS ONCE FAR FROM SUPREME

Early in his rule, Khamenei was ‌often dismissed as weak and an unlikely successor to the Islamic Republic's late founder, the charismatic Khomeini.

When he was appointed Supreme Leader, Khamenei had difficulty wielding power through religious authority, as the theocratic system foresaw. After struggling for a long time to ‌emerge from the shadow of his mentor, it was by forging a formidable security apparatus devoted solely to him that he finally imposed himself.

Khamenei distrusts the West, ‌particularly the US, which he accuses of seeking to topple him.

In a typically pugnacious speech after January's protests, he blamed Trump for the unrest, saying: "We consider the US president criminal for the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted on the Iranian nation." Yet despite his ideological rigidity, he has shown a willingness to bend when the survival of the republic is at stake.

The concept of "heroic flexibility", first mentioned by Khamenei in 2013, permits tactical compromises to advance his goals, mirroring Khomeini's choice in 1988 to embrace a ceasefire after eight years of war with Iraq.

Khamenei’s guarded ‌endorsement of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers was another such moment, as he calculated that sanctions relief was necessary to stabilize the economy and buttress his grip on power.

Trump quit the 2015 pact during his first ⁠term in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on ⁠Iran. Tehran reacted by gradually violating all agreed curbs on its nuclear program.

LOYAL SECURITY STRUCTURE KEY TO KHAMENEI'S POWER

At times of increasing pressure, Khamenei has repeatedly turned to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij, a paramilitary force numbering hundreds of thousands of volunteers, to snuff out dissent.

It was they who crushed the protests that exploded after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election as president in 2009 amid allegations of vote fraud.

In 2022, Khamenei was just as ruthless in arresting, imprisoning or executing protesters enraged by the death in custody of the young Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.

And it was again the Guards and Basij who crushed the latest round of protests in January.

His power also owes much to the parastatal financial empire known as Setad, which is under Khamenei's direct control. Worth tens of billions of dollars, it has grown hugely during his rule, investing billions in the Revolutionary Guards.

Scholars outside Iran paint a picture of a secretive ideologue fearful of betrayal - an anxiety fueled by an assassination attempt in June 1981 with a bomb hidden in a tape recorder that paralyzed his right arm.

Khamenei himself suffered severe torture, according to his official biography, in 1963, when at 24 he served the first of many terms in prison for political activities under the rule of the shah.

After the revolution, as deputy defense minister, Khamenei became close to the Guards during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, which claimed a million lives from both sides.

He won the presidency with Khomeini's support but was a surprise choice as successor when the supreme leader died, lacking both his popular appeal and his superior clerical credentials.

Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that "accident of history" had transformed a "weak president to an initially weak supreme leader to one of the five most powerful Iranians of the last 100 years".

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Features

Bandar Abbas, Iran’s Trade Hub on Hormuz Thrust to Frontline of US War

Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
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Bandar Abbas, Iran’s Trade Hub on Hormuz Thrust to Frontline of US War

Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)

With a long shoreline on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's southern trade hub of Bandar Abbas has found itself at the frontlines of the war with the United States, with residents struggling to revive livelihoods battered by months of fighting.

Like elsewhere in Iran, economic strain has squeezed households since US-Israeli strikes triggered the Middle East war on February 28. But unlike much of the country, the port city of around half a million people has remained exposed to fighting even after an April 8 ceasefire brought relief elsewhere.

But despite a lull in hostilities in July, residents still feel squeezed. Saeed Tajik, 42, used to work at a shipyard before losing his job and turning to driving a taxi.

"The prices of housing and food have become extremely high. Almost all the basics -- rice, yoghurt, and oil -- have doubled," said Tajik.

Fuel shortages have long been common in southern Iran, where authorities restrict supplies in an effort to curb widespread fuel smuggling.

But now, "the queues have become longer ... it happens that we wait in the long line for fuel only to get told 'there is none' upon arriving," Tajik said as he drove past a station where motorists waited under the punishing summer heat.

Hormuz has emerged as a central flashpoint after an April ceasefire and June framework deal failed to resolve disagreements between Washington and Tehran over the future management of the strait.

During the war, US strikes hit bridges, highways and railway infrastructure around Bandar Abbas until mid-July, in what analysts saw as attempts to cut off the city and disrupt Iranian military logistics in the south.

- 'Nothing left' -

Inside the city, under a towering concrete statue of two armed men with their arms trained towards Hormuz waters, economic strains play out in long queues snaking outside petrol stations and soaring prices squeezing shoppers in local markets.

The city's repeatedly hit airport remained largely closed until August 15, leaving travelers facing arduous road journeys, sometimes combined with flights and boat crossings.

Outside the city, construction crews still toil under the sweltering summer sun to repair the Gachin bridge, split by a US strike, as cars rumble along a dusty detour below.

Along the waterfront, traditional wooden vessels known as lenjes sit moored alongside fishing and commercial boats, part of a centuries-old trading network linking southern Iran with Arab states across the Gulf.

Arash Tondro, 45, used his lenj to carry Iranian fresh and dried fruit to the United Arab Emirates and return with household goods and other imports.

"My income dropped to zero at the beginning of the war," said Tondro, who later rerouted some trade through Oman's Khasab port as regional seaways were disrupted and "many of the lenjes were hit by drones".

After the UAE suspended trade with Iran on Tuesday following a missile attack on a ship that Tehran denied carrying out, Tondro said he was again unsure how his work would be impacted.

"People in the south mostly rely on trade or fishing. If you take the sea and trade away from them, there is practically nothing left. We don't have agriculture here; whatever there is comes from the sea," he said.

- 'No sales' -

As night falls and August's oppressive heat begins to ease, fish vendors set up along a busy street, laying out shark, tuna and shrimp as the smell of the day's catch hangs in the humid air.

Among them is 22-year-old Anoush Mallah, who recently moved onto the street after soaring rents forced him to close his shop in one of the city's bazaars.

"Business has been terrible since the war started. There are no sales, it's very weak," he told AFP.

"People are short of money. The fishermen aren't going fishing either."

Many fishermen around Bandar Abbas only began returning to sea in recent weeks, after months ashore for fear of being caught in the crossfire of US-Iran fighting.

Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to end the war. For Mallah, the uncertainty only adds to the strain.

"Let it (the war) start and get some result; right now, we're just left in limbo," he said.

Features

The Ethiopian Dam Dispute and Egypt’s ‘Right to Self-Defense’

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry
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The Ethiopian Dam Dispute and Egypt’s ‘Right to Self-Defense’

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry

Over the past two weeks, Egypt has repeatedly stressed its right to prevent any actions by Addis Ababa on the Nile River that could harm its water interests, stressing that it possesses the “right to self-defense” over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

According to experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, Egypt’s signaling means that it “will not hesitate to use all legitimate means to safeguard its water security.”

They explained that the message is a stern warning to Ethiopia and suggests that Cairo is seeking to shift from a policy of protesting Ethiopian measures to preventive deterrence, aimed at stopping the establishment of a new status quo on the Nile.

New Egyptian Warning

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said that “Egypt will not allow the construction of additional dams ... that affect its water interests,” stressing Cairo’s commitment to a legally binding agreement that guarantees its water rights.

In a television interview on Wednesday evening, Abdelatty said that Egypt does not oppose African countries’ right to development, noting Cairo’s participation in dam and infrastructure projects in several Nile Basin states. However, he stressed the need to balance the right to development with the rights of downstream countries.

He also underscored Egypt’s commitment to protecting its water interests. “We have the right to self-defense to protect our interests and water security,” said the minister. “We will not accept any agreement regarding the Nile River unless it is legally binding,” he reiterated.

Mohamed Hegazy, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and a former assistant foreign minister, says the right of self-defense is protected under international law after all peaceful means have been exhausted.

According to Hegazy, the core message is that Cairo still prefers agreement and negotiation, but it no longer accepts using negotiations to impose a fait accompli.

He argued that the most significant aspect of Abdelatty’s statements is that they send three simultaneous messages - Rejection of unilateral measures, rejection of additional dams, and insistence on the right of self-defense to protect water security.

Hussein El-Behairy, an African affairs expert at the National Center for Middle East Studies, said the minister’s recent statements reaffirm Egypt’s right to defend its historical and water rights in the Nile by whatever means the Egyptian state deems appropriate to preserve what Egyptians view as a matter of life and death.

Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Reuters

Escalating Egyptian Position

This is the third time Egypt has signaled the possibility of using its “right to self-defense” and preventing dam construction on the Nile.

On August 16, Egypt’s state news agency quoted an unnamed Egyptian official as saying that Cairo “will neither accept nor allow any party to control the flow of Nile waters to downstream countries,” stressing that the Egyptian state possesses multiple tools capable of protecting its people’s interests in the Nile.

The statement came in response to remarks attributed to Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy Habtamu Itefa concerning the construction of additional dams on the Nile and control over water flows to downstream states, namely Egypt and Sudan.

Earlier, on August 4, Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sewilam stated during a press conference that Egypt “will not allow the construction of new Ethiopian dams on the Nile River.”

He said: “It is well known that Ethiopia has plans to build additional dams, but will the Egyptian state allow this? No.”

According to Hegazy, the ball is now in Ethiopia’s court. If Addis Ababa agrees to resume serious negotiations leading to a legally binding agreement on GERD, the crisis can be contained.

However, if Ethiopia continues to create new realities on the Nile, the scope for a diplomatic solution will narrow, making risk management and deterrence a more prominent part of Egypt’s strategy.

El-Behairy does not expect the escalation to pave the way for new negotiations on GERD unless the Ethiopian government is willing to make concessions in response to Cairo’s demands. These demands include reaching a legally binding agreement that guarantees Egypt’s water rights during periods of drought and severe drought, and providing Egypt with information regarding the operation of the dam in a manner that does not harm its water interests.

Features

Train to Nowhere? South Korea’s Lonely Push for Peace with the North

A locomotive is seen at the Woljeong-ri Station in Cheorwon, Gangwon Province, in South Korea, near the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
A locomotive is seen at the Woljeong-ri Station in Cheorwon, Gangwon Province, in South Korea, near the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
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Train to Nowhere? South Korea’s Lonely Push for Peace with the North

A locomotive is seen at the Woljeong-ri Station in Cheorwon, Gangwon Province, in South Korea, near the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
A locomotive is seen at the Woljeong-ri Station in Cheorwon, Gangwon Province, in South Korea, near the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea on August 10, 2026. (AFP)

Near the heavily fortified frontier dividing the Korean peninsula, the abandoned Woljeong-ri station is being recast as a symbol of South Korea's hopes to reconcile with the North.

But plans to reconnect South Korea's northernmost station to the rail network come at an awkward moment, as Pyongyang ignores Seoul's overtures while the South's old ally Washington pursues its own talks with Pyongyang.

A turbulent few days have raised doubts about the role of South Korea in any diplomatic push, despite President Lee Jae Myung's dovish line on the North since taking power last year.

US President Donald Trump abruptly scaled back annual military drills with Seoul this week, calling them "inappropriate and hostile" towards the nuclear-armed North.

He also berated South Korea for not helping in his war against Iran and said he would meet the North's leader Kim Jong Un this year.

North Korea then fired around 10 short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, while Kim's powerful sister mocked Seoul's "master-servant" relationship with Washington.

The developments have overshadowed the Lee administration's outreach, including the Woljeong-ri project aimed at "eventual" reconciliation.

The modest station -- originally located inside today's demilitarized zone (DMZ) -- once sat on a line linking Seoul to Wonsan, but was destroyed during the 1950-53 Korean War. It was reconstructed at its current site in the border town of Cheorwon in 1988.

It is now an attraction for visitors to the nearby DMZ separating the two countries, and the line's former terminus -- Wonsan -- lies in North Korea.

Its history, however, underscores how vulnerable such hopes are to the politics of the peninsula.

Work began in 2015 but ground to a halt just a year later after North Korea's fourth nuclear test.

The latest reboot inspires more skepticism than hope for some in Cheorwon.

"It seems like they keep trying to reconcile with North Korea (through the railway project), but from our point of view, it isn't really practical," said resident Moon Jae-yong, 70.

- Lonely push for peace -

South Korea's reconciliation program eventually aims to restore rail links, such as Woljeong-ri, with the North.

Lee has also said he is ready for talks with Pyongyang without preconditions, including on formally ending the Korean War, which concluded with an armistice.

His unification minister said in July that Seoul had shifted from prioritizing denuclearization to curbing the expansion of North Korea's nuclear program.

But Pyongyang -- emboldened by support from traditional ally China, and Russia, whose invasion of Ukraine it is backing -- has been unmoved.

It has repeatedly declared itself an "irreversible" nuclear state and labelled Seoul its "most hostile" enemy.

The US leader may be trying to revive diplomacy to record a foreign policy win ahead of November's midterm elections, with many voters disenchanted by his intervention in the Middle East.

That has sidelined Seoul, with Lee voicing respect for Trump's decision and pledging to "do his utmost" to support his peacemaking efforts.

South Korea is "reasonably afraid that it gets sidelined -- China, Russia and now America are all engaged with Pyongyang in different ways, while Seoul is not," Vladimir Tikhonov, Korean Studies professor at the University of Oslo, told AFP.

"So, Seoul is desperate to get some opening with North Korea. But it can do very little, so far."

- Impossible dream? -

That leaves the rail project standing as a symbol of South Korea's lonely push for peace.

Along the disused line from Woljeong-ri towards Baengmagoji station to the south -- the section to be restored under the peace project -- vegetation crowds both sides of the tracks, nearly swallowing a stone wall.

"The iron horse wants to run," a sign reads, alongside a phrase in English: "We want to be back on track."

Preparing infrastructure in the South now could save time if inter-Korean links are eventually restored, said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University.

"But realistically, it is virtually impossible under the current circumstances, and everyone knows that," he told AFP.

With few options on North Korea, Seoul has turned to projects it can "pursue unilaterally", Lim said.

The project also aims to boost tourism along the border, where residents face frequent disruptions and security risks.

Pyongyang sent trash-filled balloons and broadcast unsettling noises across the border during the administration of Lee's hawkish predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol.

Kim Sun-hee, 70, described them as "like scraping cement, or even ghost-like noises. It was really frightening".

A bombed-out locomotive from the Korean War remains near Woljeong-ri station as a reminder of the division.

It is "heartbreaking to see", said visitor Ahn Seung-hyun.