Oil Prices Slip as Russia Sanctions Stay in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo
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Oil Prices Slip as Russia Sanctions Stay in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday from the previous day's four-month highs but the market remained supported by continuing focus on the impact of new US sanctions on Russian oil exports to key buyers India and China.

Brent futures were down 58 cents, or 0.72%, to $80.43 a barrel by 1421 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 62 cents, or 0.79% to $78.20 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Prices jumped 2% on Monday after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia's so-called shadow fleet of tankers.

"With several nations seeking alternative fuel supplies in order to adapt to the sanctions, there may be more advances in store, even if prices correct a bit lower should tomorrow's US CPI data come in somewhat hotter-than-expected", said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.

While analysts were still expecting a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest.

ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000 barrel-per-day surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower.

"The actual reduction in flows will likely be less, as Russia and buyers find ways around these sanctions," they said in a note.

Nevertheless, analysts expect less of a supply overhang in the market as a result.

"We anticipate that the latest round of sanctions are more likely to move the market closer to balance this year, with less pressure on demand growth to achieve this," said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

Uncertainty about demand from major buyer China could blunt the impact of the tighter supply. China's crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.



Davos to Welcome Trump Virtually as World Leaders Await New US President’s Policies

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. (AFP)
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Davos to Welcome Trump Virtually as World Leaders Await New US President’s Policies

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. (AFP)
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. (AFP)

Donald Trump will mark his return to the global stage with a virtual World Economic Forum appearance in Davos next week, as world leaders await details of the incoming US President's policies and his pledge to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump is due to return to the White House on Jan. 20, with his inauguration for a second term as US President coinciding with the start of the 55th annual WEF meeting of political and business leaders in the Swiss mountain resort.

Meanwhile, another key player in any attempt to bring peace to Ukraine, the country's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, will make a special address and take questions, the WEF meeting organizers said on Tuesday.

Among the other global leaders due to attend the meeting, which will include 60 heads of state and government, are European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and China's vice premier Ding Xuexiang, WEF President and CEO Borge Brende said during a press conference.

Brende said Trump, who has twice previously attended Davos, will join "digitally" on Jan. 23, without giving further details. He said it would be a "very special moment" to learn about the new Trump administration's policy priorities.

"There is a lot of interest to decipher and to understand the policies of the new administration, so it will be an interesting week," Brende said.

Topics on the Davos agenda range from mounting global geopolitical and economic uncertainty to trade tensions, climate goals and how AI can help make lives better.

Business leaders have become more optimistic about the economy given Trump's pledges to reduce regulation, potentially cut taxes and ease restrictions on activities including mergers and acquisitions, Rich Lesser, global chair of Boston Consulting Group, told Reuters ahead of the meeting.

Lesser said, however, that underlying optimism is being offset by concerns about tariffs, deportations, a widening budget deficit and the US relationship with China.

MIDDLE EAST

This year's meeting in Davos is taking place against "the most complicated geopolitical backdrop in generations," Brende said, adding that the forum will have a strong focus on Middle East geopolitics, including high-level diplomatic talks.

Delegates will discuss developments in Syria and the humanitarian crises in Gaza and Yemen alongside other topics.

Participants will include Qatar's Prime Minister, the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister, Syria's foreign minister, the UN special envoy on Syria, the Iranian Vice President, Israel's President and the Palestinian Prime Minister.

"There will be a hard work at the situation in Syria, the terrible humanitarian situation in Gaza ... the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. We were very close to it between Israel and Iran, and I don't think we're out of the woods yet," Brende said.

CLIMATE

The WEF will this week release an analysis looking at companies that account for two-thirds of global market capitalization, which will show that only about 10% are taking meaningful and tangible action on the climate and nature agenda.

Business and political leaders gathering in Davos from Jan. 20 to Jan. 24 are also due to discuss how to ensure energy remains affordable, secure and green and the challenges preventing acceleration of efforts towards energy transition.

"We’re in a really challenging moment for climate, where countries are asking if other nations are doing their share," said Boston Consulting Group's Lesser.