US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.



IMF: Saudi Arabia Has Created a Favorable Environment for Growth

The World Economic Forum in Davos hosted a session titled “Economic Transformations in Saudi Arabia”, in the presence of key Saudi officials. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
The World Economic Forum in Davos hosted a session titled “Economic Transformations in Saudi Arabia”, in the presence of key Saudi officials. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
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IMF: Saudi Arabia Has Created a Favorable Environment for Growth

The World Economic Forum in Davos hosted a session titled “Economic Transformations in Saudi Arabia”, in the presence of key Saudi officials. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
The World Economic Forum in Davos hosted a session titled “Economic Transformations in Saudi Arabia”, in the presence of key Saudi officials. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

The World Economic Forum in Davos hosted a session titled “Economic Transformations in Saudi Arabia,” focusing on the Kingdom’s remarkable economic progress. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva praised Saudi Arabia for establishing a “favorable environment for growth” while maintaining fiscal discipline.

The session featured key Saudi officials, including Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim, Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Alswaha, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

Georgieva commended the Kingdom’s readiness to make tough decisions, underpinned by its solid economic foundations.

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan highlighted the nation’s collective commitment to Vision 2030.

“The entire country—from citizens to businesses and government—is united behind this clear and transparent vision,” he stated.

He further underscored the leadership’s determination to make bold, long-term decisions to achieve the vision’s objectives, saying: “I believe this approach will succeed in Saudi Arabia and could succeed anywhere if similar conditions are met.”

Al-Jadaan explained that Vision 2030 is designed to increase economic resilience and reduce dependency on oil price fluctuations.

He noted: “The shift is happening at an extraordinary pace.”

Addressing Saudi-US relations, Al-Jadaan said: “For over eight decades, Saudi Arabia has forged highly strategic economic and trade ties with the United States, regardless of political changes in Washington. This partnership benefits both sides, and as long as it remains mutually advantageous, it will continue to thrive.”

Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim emphasized Saudi Arabia’s role as a global model for transformation and a key engine of growth. He pointed out that the Kingdom has successfully diversified its economy, with non-oil activities now making up 52% of real GDP—a milestone reflecting significant progress.

Al-Ibrahim projected strong growth for the non-oil sector: 3.9% in 2025, 4.8% in 2026, and 6.2% in 2027. He described Saudi Arabia’s economic strategy as a blueprint for other nations, grounded in institutional reform, investment in human capital, and decisive policymaking.

For his part, Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Alswaha addressed the global demand for computing power—estimated at 63 gigawatts—to support artificial intelligence (AI) applications. He stressed this is equivalent to the energy needs of countries like India or the US over five years.

The minister also highlighted Saudi Arabia’s leadership in renewable energy to meet this demand.

“We’ve built the world’s largest green hydrogen plant in NEOM, with a capacity of 4 gigawatts, in partnership with Air Products and ACWA Power. This positions Saudi Arabia as a global energy hub, fueling the digital and AI-driven economies,” he stated.

On women’s empowerment, Alswaha pointed to a transformative rise in female workforce participation, jumping from 7% to 35%. He described this progress as “the boldest and most successful story of women’s empowerment in the 21st century.”

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink also praised the region’s entrepreneurial growth, noting: “There are many reasons to be optimistic. Humanity is progressing, and overall conditions are improving.”

He highly valued the substantial investment potential in Saudi Arabia and the wider region.

“This is a region of tremendous growth. As conditions continue to improve, tourism will rise, and new opportunities will flourish,” Fink concluded.