Trump Treasury Pick Bessent Backs Fed Independence, Dollar, Sanctions on Russian Oil

 Scott Bessent, US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of treasury, looks on as he testifies during a Senate Committee on Finance confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, US, January 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Scott Bessent, US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of treasury, looks on as he testifies during a Senate Committee on Finance confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, US, January 16, 2025. (Reuters)
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Trump Treasury Pick Bessent Backs Fed Independence, Dollar, Sanctions on Russian Oil

 Scott Bessent, US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of treasury, looks on as he testifies during a Senate Committee on Finance confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, US, January 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Scott Bessent, US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of treasury, looks on as he testifies during a Senate Committee on Finance confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, US, January 16, 2025. (Reuters)

President-elect Donald Trump's pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Thursday that the dollar should remain the world's reserve currency, the Federal Reserve should stay independent and that he is ready to impose tougher sanctions on Russia's oil sector.

Bessent, testifying at a Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing, underscored an urgent need to extend Trump's 2017 individual tax cuts, saying that allowing them to expire at the end of this year would unleash a $4 trillion tax hike that could crush the US economy.

"If we do not renew and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity," Bessent said. "We will see a gigantic middle class tax increase."

Bessent, a hedge fund manager and founder of Key Square Capital Management, voiced support for Trump's plans to impose steep tariffs, saying they would combat unfair trade practices, raise revenues and increase US negotiating leverage, including on non-trade issues.

In prepared remarks he said pro-growth tax, investment, trade and energy policies would usher in a "a new economic golden age" of prosperity.

RUSSIAN OIL SANCTIONS

Bessent said that US sanctions against Russia's oil sector have been too weak, partly because the Biden administration was too concerned about increasing prices at the same time it was constraining US oil output. Increased US oil production would allow for tougher sanctions on Russian oil majors, he said.

"I think if any officials in the Russian Federation are watching this confirmation hearing, they should know that if I'm confirmed, and if President Trump requests as part of his strategy to end the Ukraine war, that I will be 100% on board with taking sanctions up - especially on the Russian oil majors - to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table," Bessent said.

He also had harsh words for China, calling it "the most imbalanced, unbalanced economy in the history of the world," one that was trying to export its way out of a "severe recession/depression" and the US could not allow China to flood US or world markets with cheap goods.

NO DRAMA

In a hearing marked by few testy exchanges, Bessent coolly fielded questions ranging from child tax credits to tariff impacts on farmers and did not stray from answers consistent with previous Republican Treasury nominees, but without contradicting Trump's policy plans.

He said that US spending on President Joe Biden's clean energy tax credit was "wildly out of control" and that high deficits in recent years were due to a "spending problem." Asked if a 100% tax credit for business research and development needed to be restored, he said his "inclination" would be to support that.

Democrats chided Bessent for taking advantage of a tax loophole, the legality of which has been disputed by the Internal Revenue Service, to reduce the Medicare taxes paid by his hedge fund by $910,000 over three years.

"This is exactly the kind of abusive scheme that leaves Americans feeling disgusted with our tax system," said Senator Ron Wyden, the panel's top Democrat.

Bessent said that he would set aside funds to pay any taxes owing once the case is decided. He has pledged to shutter Key Square to avoid conflicts of interest if his nomination is confirmed.

FED INDEPENDENCE

Markets were expected to scrutinize Bessent's comments on keeping the Federal Reserve independent for clues as to whether Trump would try to exert control over the US central bank given the president-elect's frequent complaints over Fed interest rate decisions.

But Bessent came down firmly on the side of Fed monetary policy independence, adding that Trump would still make his views known.

"I think on monetary policy decisions, the FOMC should be independent," he said, referring to the Fed's rate-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee.

Although some economists have said that Trump's plans to impose tariffs, cut taxes and curb immigration would be inflationary, Bessent disagreed, saying Trump's plans, including increased energy production, would lower inflation to the Fed's 2% target while increasing wages.

Despite Trump's longstanding complaints about a strong dollar hurting US exports, Bessent said: "Critically - critically - we must ensure that the dollar remains the world's reserve currency."

Bessent also rejected the idea of a central bank digital currency for the Fed, saying that the dollar's wide use and security made this unnecessary. He said he was open to the idea of creating a US sovereign wealth fund, but said the US needed to get control over short-term deficit growth first.

HIGH DEBT, LESS CAPACITY

Bessent vowed that there would be no debt default on US Treasury debt under his watch. Asked whether Congress should abandon the federal debt ceiling, Bessent said that if Trump requested that, he would work with Congress to make it happen.

The high debt level means that there is less capacity to borrow heavily to combat a crisis, Bessent said, citing examples of the 1930s Great Depression, World War Two and the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

"Treasury – along with the whole of government and Congress - has used its borrowing capacity to save the union, save the world, and save the American people," Bessent said. "What we currently have now, we would be hard pressed to do the same."



China’s Economy Meets Official Growth Target, but Many Feel a Downturn

 People shop around at a market in Beijing, Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)
People shop around at a market in Beijing, Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)
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China’s Economy Meets Official Growth Target, but Many Feel a Downturn

 People shop around at a market in Beijing, Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)
People shop around at a market in Beijing, Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. (AP)

China's economy matched the government's ambitions for 5% growth last year, but in a lopsided fashion, with many people complaining of worsening living standards as Beijing struggles to transfer its industrial and export gains to consumers.

The unbalanced growth raises concerns that structural problems may deepen further in 2025, when China plans a similar growth performance by going deeper into debt to counter the impact of an expected US tariff hike, potentially as soon as Monday when Donald Trump is inaugurated as president.

China's December data showed industrial output far outpacing retail sales, and the unemployment rate ticking higher, highlighting the supply-side strength of an economy running a trillion-dollar trade surplus, but also its domestic weakness.

The export-led growth is partly underpinned by factory gate deflation which makes Chinese goods competitive on global markets, but also exposes Beijing to greater conflicts as trade gaps with rival countries widen. Within borders, falling prices have ripped into corporate profits and workers incomes.

Andrew Wang, an executive in a company providing industrial automation services for the booming electrical vehicle sector, said his revenues fell 16% last year, prompting him to cut jobs, which he expects to do again soon.

"The data China released was different from what most people felt," Wang said, comparing this year's outlook with notching up the difficulty level on a treadmill.

"We need to run faster just to stay where we are."

China's National Bureau of Statistics and the State Council Information Office, which handles media queries for the government, did not immediately respond to questions about the doubts over official data.

If the bulk of the extra stimulus Beijing has lined up for this year keeps flowing towards industrial upgrades and infrastructure, rather than households, it could exacerbate overcapacity in factories, weaken consumption, and increase deflationary pressures, analysts say.

"It seems dubious that China precisely hit its growth target for 2024 at a time when the economy continues to face tepid domestic demand, persistent deflationary pressures, and flailing property and equity markets," said Eswar Prasad, trade policy professor at Cornell University and a former China director at the International Monetary Fund.

"Looking ahead, China not only faces significant domestic challenges but also a hostile external environment."

'UNEASE'

Chinese exporters expect higher tariffs to have a much greater impact than during Trump's first term, accelerating a reshoring of production abroad and further shrinking profits, hurting jobs and private sector investment.

A trade war 2.0 would find China in a much more vulnerable position than when Trump first raised tariffs in 2018, as it still grapples with a deep property crisis and huge local government debt, among other imbalances.

So far, Beijing has pledged to prioritize domestic consumption in this year's policies, but has revealed little apart from a recently-expanded trade-in program that subsidizes purchases of cars, appliances and other goods.

China gave civil servants their first big pay bump in a decade, although the higher estimates measure the overall increase at roughly 0.1% of GDP. Financial regulators got steep wage cuts, as have many others in the private sector.

For Jiaqi Zhang, a 25-year-old investment banker in Beijing, 2024 felt like a downturn, having seen her salary trimmed for a second consecutive year, bringing the total reduction to 30%. Eight or nine of her colleagues lost their jobs, she said.

"There is a general feeling of unease in the company," said Zhang, who has cut back on buying clothes and dining out. "I'm ready to leave at any time, just that there's nowhere to go right now."

SCEPTICISM

The world's second-largest economy beat economists' 2024 forecast of 4.9% growth. Its fourth-quarter 5.4% pace was the quickest since early 2023.

"China's economy is showing signs of revival, led by industrial output and exports," said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC.

But the last-minute bounce in growth may already have been flattered by front-loading of shipments to the US ahead of any new tariffs, which will inevitably lead to a pay-back, he said.

"There will be an even bigger need to apply domestic stimulus" this year, Neumann said.

China and Hong Kong shares rose slightly, but the yuan lingered near 16-month lows, under pressure from sliding Chinese bond yields and the tariff threat.

Subdued markets reflect wavering confidence in China's outlook, analysts said.

Beijing has rarely missed its growth targets. The last time was in 2022 due to the pandemic.

"Are investors around the world going to invest in China because they hit 5%? No," said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who expects slower 2025 growth. "So it's becoming an irrelevant target."

Also, long-standing skepticism about the accuracy of official data has shifted into higher gear over the past month.

A bearish commentary by Gao Shanwen, a prominent Chinese economist who spoke of "dispirited youth" and estimated that GDP growth may have been overstated by 10 percentage points between 2021 and 2023, vanished from social media after going viral.

In a Dec. 31 note, Rhodium Group estimated that China's economy only grew 2.4%-2.8% in 2024, pointing to the disconnect between relatively stable official figures throughout the year and the flood of stimulus unleashed from about the mid-way mark.

This included May's blockbuster property market package, the most aggressive monetary policy easing steps since the pandemic in September and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) debt package for local governments in November.

"If China's actual growth is below headline rates, it suggests there is a broader problem of China's domestic demand that is contributing to global trade tensions," Rhodium partner Local Wright told Reuters.

"Overcapacity would be a far less pressing issue if China's economy was actually growing at 5% rates."