Dollar Strong, Stocks Creep Higher as Second Trump Term Dawns

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
TT

Dollar Strong, Stocks Creep Higher as Second Trump Term Dawns

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar was firm and Asia's stock markets were cautiously positive on Monday as investors waited for an expected flurry of policy announcements in the first hours of Donald Trump's second presidency and eyed a rate hike in Japan at the end of the week.
Trump takes the oath of office at noon Eastern Time (1700 GMT), and promised a "brand new day of American strength" at a rally on Sunday, Reuters said.
He has stoked expectations he will issue a slew of executive orders right away and, in a reminder of his unpredictability, launched a digital token on Friday, which soared to trade above $70 at one point for a total market value north of $15 billion.
Monday is a US holiday, so the first responses to his inauguration in traditional financial markets may be felt in foreign exchange, where traders are focused on Trump's tariff policies, and then in Asian trade on Tuesday.
US equity futures were a fraction weaker in the Asian morning on Monday while the dollar, which has rallied since September on strong US data and as Trump's ultimately successful political campaign gained momentum, held steady.
Japan's Nikkei rose 1%.
Last week the S&P 500 notched the biggest weekly percentage gain since early November and the Nasdaq its largest since early December on some benign inflation data.
The dollar is up around 8% on the euro since September and at $1.0273 is not far from last week's two-year high. But so much is priced in that some analysts feel a more gradual start to US tariff hikes may draw out some sellers.
"A forceful start to Trump's new term could rattle nerves and give the dollar more support," said Corpay currency strategist Peter Dragicevich.
"By contrast, based on what already looks baked in, we think a more measured approach may ease fears and see the dollar lose ground, as it did after Trump took charge in 2017."
Trump has threatened tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods, plus a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products, duties that trade experts say would upend trade flows, raise costs and draw retaliation.
The Canadian dollar touched a five-year low of C$1.4486 per dollar on Monday. The Mexican peso hit a 2-1/2 year low of 20.94 per dollar on Friday.
Bitcoin dipped in the early part of the Asian day but remained above $100,000. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields closed out Friday at 4.61%, up nearly 100 basis points in four months.
CHINA FOCUS
China is in focus as the target of the harshest potential trade levies. Investors lately cheered better-than-expected Chinese growth data and a Friday phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that left both upbeat.
"Basically everyone is waiting for these trade negotiations to begin and see what kind of attitude Xi Jinping takes with Trump," Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Wealth told reporters in Singapore at an outlook briefing.
"That relationship between the two gentlemen has become very important as a leading indicator of policies."
Chinese equity markets rose last week and futures pointed to modest gains for Hong Kong shares at the open.
The yuan is seen likely to slowly adjust to any shifts in trade policy and was marginally firmer at 7.3355 per dollar in offshore trade.
The Australian dollar, sensitive to trade flows and China's economy, has scraped off five-year lows and, according to Commonwealth Bank strategist Joe Capurso, could test resistance at $0.6322 if Trump's policy changes fall short of market expectations. It was last at $0.62.
Japan's yen rallied last week as remarks from Bank of Japan policymakers were taken as hints that a rate cut is likely on Friday.
It was last steady at 156.17 per dollar and rates markets priced about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
In commodities gold hovered at $2,694 an ounce and Brent crude futures ticked higher to $81.21 a barrel.



Bitcoin Soars Past $109,000 Ahead of Possible Early Action on Crypto by Trump

FILE PHOTO: Sparks strike representation of cryptocurrency Bitcoin in this illustration taken November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Sparks strike representation of cryptocurrency Bitcoin in this illustration taken November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT

Bitcoin Soars Past $109,000 Ahead of Possible Early Action on Crypto by Trump

FILE PHOTO: Sparks strike representation of cryptocurrency Bitcoin in this illustration taken November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Sparks strike representation of cryptocurrency Bitcoin in this illustration taken November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The price of bitcoin surged to over $109,000 early Monday, just hours ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, as a pumped up cryptocurrency industry bets he'll take action soon after returning to the White House.
Once a skeptic who said a few years ago that bitcoin “seems like a scam,” Trump has embraced digital currencies with a convert’s zeal. He's launched a new cryptocurrency venture and vowed on the campaign trail to take steps early in his presidency to make the US into the “crypto capital” of the world.
His promises including creating a US crypto stockpile, enacting industry-friendly regulation and event appointing a crypto “czar” for his administration.
“You’re going to be very happy with me,” Trump told crypto-enthusiasts at a bitcoin conference last summer.
Bitcoin is the world’s most popular cryptocurrency and was created in 2009 as a kind of electronic cash uncontrolled by banks or governments. It and newer forms of cryptocurrencies have moved from the financial fringes to the mainstream in wild fits and starts.
The highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies as well as their use by criminals, scammers and rogue nations, has attracted plenty of critics, who say the digital currencies have limited utility and often are just Ponzi schemes, The Associated Press reported.
But crypto has so far defied naysayers and survived multiple prolonged price drops in its short lifespan. Wealthy players in the crypto industry, which felt unfairly targeted by the Biden administration, spent heavily to help Trump win last November’s election. Bitcoin has surged in price since Trump's victory, topping $100,000 for the first time last month before briefly sliding down to about $90,000. On Friday, it rose about 5%. It jumped more than $9,000 early Monday, according to CoinDesk.
Two years ago, bitcoin was trading at about $20,000.
Trump’s picks for key cabinet and regulatory positions are stocked with crypto supporters, including his choice to lead the Treasury and Commerce departments and the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Key industry players held a first ever "Crypto Ball” on Friday to celebrate the first “crypto president." The event was sold out, with tickets costing several thousand dollars.