Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
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Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

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Oil market momentum was kept in check on Monday as prices fluctuated in and out of negative territory, with traders on edge despite the US pulling back from initial sanctions threats against Colombia, reducing immediate concern over oil supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.14 a barrel by 1200 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.27, down 39 cents, or 0.5%.

Both benchmarks oscillated between moderate gains and losses in early trading.

The US swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after the South American nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States, the White House said late on Sunday, Reuters reported.

Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the US, data from analytics firm Kpler shows.

"Even if the sanctions didn't take place, this still creates nervousness that Trump will bully whoever needs to be bullied to get his way," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

"Fundamentally, the market is surprisingly tight," said Schieldrop, referring to time spreads showing that the price of crude oil for quicker delivery is rising.

Gains were limited by Trump's repeated call on Friday for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia's finances and help to end to the war in Ukraine.

"One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil ... That war will stop right away," Trump said.

Trump has also threatened to hit Russia "and other participating countries" with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he and Trump should meet to talk about the Ukraine war and energy prices.

"They are positioning for negotiations," said John Driscoll at Singapore-based consultancy JTD Energy, adding that this creates volatility in oil markets.

He added that oil markets are probably skewed a little bit to the downside, with Trump looking to boost US output and try to secure overseas markets for US crude.

"He's going to want to muscle into some of the OPEC market share; so in that sense he's kind of a competitor," Driscoll said.

However, OPEC and its allies including Russia have yet to react to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates pointing to a plan already in place to start raising oil output from April.

Both oil benchmarks registered their first weekly decline in five weeks on easing concern last week over potential supply disruptions resulting from the latest sanctions on Russia.

Goldman Sachs analysts said they do not expect a big hit to Russian production because higher freight rates have encouraged non-sanctioned ships to move Russian oil while the deepening discount on the affected Russian ESPO grade attracts price-sensitive buyers.

Still, JP Morgan analysts said some risk premium is justified given that nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions.

"The application of sanctions on the Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate," they added in a note.

Elsewhere, Chinese manufacturing data on Monday was weaker than expected, adding fresh concerns over energy demand.



Gold Stabilizes after Selloff as Wider Markets Regain Balance

FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Gold Stabilizes after Selloff as Wider Markets Regain Balance

FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, anchored by stability in European equities and US stock futures, a day after bullion's sharp decline amid a tech-led selloff.

Spot gold was steady at $2,742.37 per ounce by 12:05 GMT. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,746.70.

"After the drop yesterday, with gold likely being used to cover losses in other asset classes, stable equity markets in Europe are keeping gold stable too," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, Reuters reported.

Gold fell over 1% on Monday, marking its steepest drop since Dec. 18, as investors rushed to liquidate bullion to offset losses triggered by a sharp pullback in technology stocks, spurred by DeepSeek's low-cost, low-power AI model, casting doubt on the dominance of traditional AI giants.

Investors' focus is now set upon the Federal Reserve's first meeting this year, scheduled to start later in the day.

Policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of the two-day meeting.

However, US President Donald Trump saying he wants borrowing costs to be lowered cast some doubt over the independence of the Fed's decision.

"Market uncertainty should still support demand for gold over the coming months, we still look for higher prices later this year, driven also by further rate cuts by the Fed," Staunovo added.

Trump's policies, in addition to being perceived as inflationary, could potentially trigger trade wars, increasing safe-haven demand for bullion.

Gold prices look set for a record-breaking year due to heightened economic uncertainty and inflation concerns, a Reuters poll showed.

However, analysts downgraded their 2025 price forecasts for platinum and palladium as demand struggles to improve significantly.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $30.17 per ounce, palladium was down by 0.1% to $959.75 and platinum also shed 0.1% to $946.05.