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Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
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Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo

Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 0623 GMT, the first time gain after six consecutive declines, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.11 to $58.24 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

"Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. "Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid US tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement."

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10% in six straight sessions and dipped over 20% since April when US President Donald Trump's tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

"China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector's growth in the US, the world's major oil consumer, as orders increased.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The US Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing "a rocky road ahead for fundamentals" amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+'s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July.

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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
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Economists Warn of Global Trade Risks from Israel-Iran Conflict

Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)
Rescue workers at site hit by Israeli airstrikes in Tehran (Reuters)

Economic experts have warned that a protracted conflict between Israel and Iran could have far-reaching repercussions on the global economy, driving up energy prices and disrupting key sectors including aviation, insurance, trade, and maritime navigation.

 

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Saudi Shura Council member Fadl Al-Buainain said the ongoing military confrontation is already impacting global energy markets, with oil prices spiking to multi-month highs in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak.

 

He warned that continued Iranian threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz could further fuel the surge in energy prices. “Such an act would be hostile, not only to Gulf nations but also to global consumers, compounding the challenges already facing the world economy”, Al-Buainain said.

 

He stressed that the energy sector is particularly vulnerable to military escalations. “Any disruption to oil production or exports from major producers could send oil and gas prices skyrocketing, with direct consequences for global economic stability”, he said.

 

While current military actions have had limited impact on output and exports, Al-Buainain cautioned that any direct strikes on energy infrastructure could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, depending on how badly global supply chains are hit.

 

The conflict has already disrupted international flight routes and increased operational costs for airlines, he said, while surging risk premiums have driven up insurance costs across the region. Maritime trade and shipping lanes are also at risk of direct disruption.

 

Al-Buainain noted that the fallout will vary across the region. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia, thanks to its strategic location and Red Sea ports, is better positioned to maintain the flow of trade. The kingdom also benefits from pipelines that transport oil from the east to the west, partially shielding its exports from Gulf disruptions.

 

He described energy as the “real engine” of the global economy and said it, along with foreign trade, will bear the brunt of the economic impact. "But the human cost and developmental setbacks caused by war are far worse”, he added.

 

Al-Buainain warned that prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution are diminishing. “Starting wars is easier than ending them,” he said, adding that an Iranian move to shut down Hormuz, while difficult in practice, could spark a direct confrontation with global powers, particularly the United States. “If American interests are attacked, Washington could be drawn into the conflict, which risks expanding beyond control”.

 

Khaled Ramadan, head of the Cairo-based International Center for Strategic Studies, said Israel’s strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including the Abadan refinery, which has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, could severely reduce oil and gas supplies if the conflict drags on.

 

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Brent crude had already risen 8–13% following the escalation, crossing $78 per barrel. “Should the Strait of Hormuz be closed, we could see oil prices surge to record levels”, he warned.

 

Ramadan said the conflict could also disrupt global supply chains, especially through Hormuz, affecting non-oil goods such as electronics and food. Shipping and insurance costs would rise, leading to higher consumer prices and a slowdown in global trade.

 

Food staples such as wheat and corn, along with petrochemicals, garments, electronics, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals are all likely to see price increases, he said, citing higher energy and transport costs as well as declining market confidence.

 

Ramadan added that the economic fallout includes rising inflation, weakening currencies, and a drop in investment — particularly in tourism and tech.

 

“The Iranian rial and Israeli shekel have already hit their lowest levels this year,” he noted, adding that the war could reshape global energy alliances, with Europe increasingly seeking alternative suppliers.